UFC Fight Night Predictions for Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 & All Main Card Fights

After a historic, action-packed weekend at the White House, the worldwide MMA leader returns to its headquarters for a UFC Fight Night card — or UFC Vegas 119 — at the Meta Apex this weekend.

As usual, that means we’ve got prospects with something to prove before a flyweight title eliminator between old rivals in the main event as Angolan slugger Manel Kape faces Japanese technician Kyoji Horiguchi.

The UFC Vegas 119 main card features five fights, with Kape entering as a moderate favorite over Horiguchi in the main event, according to projections. In the co-main event, rising light heavyweight Navajo Stirling will look to take Ion “The Hulk” Cutelaba’s spot just outside the 205-pound rankings.

Saturday's UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 main card starts at 8:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+. We’re breaking down every fight with UFC Vegas 119 predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for Kape vs. Horiguchi and the rest of the main card.

Make your UFC Fight Night predictions on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right on every fight, including on winners, method of victory, significant strikes, and more!

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UFC Fight Night Predictions for Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 & Main Card Fights

Before we get into our UFC Fight Night predictions for Saturday night, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings for the main part of UFC Vegas 119.

• Main Event: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi – Flyweight
• Co-Main: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling – Light Heavyweight
• Hyder Amil vs. Christian Rodriguez – Featherweight
• Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov – Featherweight
• Vinicius Oliveira vs. Andre Fili – Featherweight

We’ll also list the payouts for each UFC Vegas 119 main card fight, via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means a result would pay $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 35 states, including Florida, California, and Texas!

Learn more about Austin Swaim's UFC model here, with all eligible results included below.

Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Manel Kape 1.61x | Kyoji Horiguchi 2.22x

Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lbs.)

Kape vs. Horiguchi Model Results:

I’m not sure these two former RIZIN stars imagined they’d ever rematch at UFC headquarters, but it has to be a fight Kape has dreamed of any opportunity for to get back.

In 2017, Horiguchi submitted Kape in a three-rounder at bantamweight. Obviously, things have changed for both, as they’re one win away from a title shot.

“Starboy” Kape has the longer UFC tenure, dating back to 2021. Early-career losses to Alexandre Pantoja and Mohammad Mokaev put him outside the top five, but he’s formed a special partnership with Eric Nicksick and Xtreme Couture.

His last win over former title challenger Brandon Royval was a statement of arrival:

The Angolan fighter’s entire game is built on phenomenal head movement and elite power, resulting in a 1.25% knockdown rate (KD%) that ranks among the top 10 in the division. However, he’s tough to floor with an 81% takedown defense and hasn’t been submitted since that 2017 bout with Horiguchi.

Especially with that win in tow, many are surprised Horiguchi is the underdog, but age is a vital part of MMA. The Japanese phenom had the right side of the championship median in 2017. In 2026, Kape (32) has the edge over Horiguchi (35).

Nonetheless, if “technical” were a fighter, it’d be the American Top Team star. His elite speed has produced sensational moments and impossible head defense (63%). If there’s a flaw for him, it’s size. At 5’4”, he was overpowered by Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson for 14 takedowns in his previous UFC title shot.

Kape doesn’t wrestle, presenting an intriguing power-speed dynamic on the feet where Horiguchi (1.61 takedowns per 15 minutes) could conceivably mix it up. As projections suggest, this one seems like a competitive thriller.

Predict the Kape vs. Horiguchi winner at UFC Vegas 119 on PrizePicks.

Kape vs. Horiguchi Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Manel Kape - 62.5 Significant Strikes

Each of Kape’s first two main events has ended in an early exit. He’s needed 15 minutes or fewer to dispatch Royval and Asu Almabayev. Horiguchi’s elite defense and historical durability could produce a longer fight.

That’s good news for his counting totals, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t obstacles to finding the high side of this projection.

My model forecasts 14.8 projected median minutes, which can vary widely. With that, Kape’s pace (9.03 significant strikes attempted per minute) is fairly average.

Horiguchi also has shown a willingness to wrestle, and perhaps the most discounted aspect of this fight’s lead-up has been Horiguchi’s own power (1.14 KD%). 

We’ve yet to see “Starboy” even wobbled, but that wasn’t the case when these two first met:

Make Your Kape vs. Horiguchi pick for UFC Vegas 119 on PrizePicks.

Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Ion Cutelaba 3.33x | Navajo Stirling 1.28x

Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (205 lbs.)

Cutelaba vs. Stirling Model Results:

City Kickboxing currently has the light heavyweight title in its stable with Carlos Ulberg. That sort of training environment is why so many are high on the future of New Zealand’s Navajo Stirling at the same gym.

Stirling hasn’t disappointed after being one of 2024’s brightest stars on the Contender Series, posting a 4-0 record. At times, the 28-year-old’s patience and desire to develop his wrestling made for less-than-stellar entertainment value, but he reminded everyone about the power last time out:

To stay undefeated, he’ll have to dispatch Ion “The Hulk” Cutelaba. Cutelaba’s arrow is also pointed up as a winner in three of his last four, which coincides with his partnership with the aforementioned Xtreme Couture camp that also houses Sean Strickland around this same weight class.

The results? Once a Moldovan brawler, a more patient, thoughtful Cutelaba has gone to the scorecards in three of his last five. He’s also picked up his first two UFC submissions.

That grappling threat is easily the best that Stirling, a kickboxer, has faced. Cutelaba’s willingness and recent success in pursuing that approach are why he’s a live underdog.

However, Stirling is a favorite with zero durability questions, bricks for hands, and a four-inch reach edge. Whichever guy can impose his preferred domain may get his hand raised here.

Predict the Cutelaba vs. Stirling winner at UFC Vegas 119 on PrizePicks.

Cutelaba vs. Stirling Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Navajo Stirling - 42.5 Significant Strikes

This projection is fascinating due to the stylistic changeup Cutelaba provides — and the likely consequences if he doesn’t.

Stirling has averaged 76.8 significant strikes per fight, and that was with two early stoppages. He’s topped at least 52 in all five UFC-affiliated appearances. Why would this one be different?

Well, it’s nearly impossible to score them in bottom positions, and Cutelaba averages 7.67 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. “The Hulk” can also get sloppy with striking defense (47%) when his wrestling isn’t working.

Make Your Cutelaba vs. Stirling pick for UFC Vegas 119 on PrizePicks.

Hyder Amil vs. Christian Rodriguez Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Hyder Amil 2.43x | Christian Rodriguez 1.51x

Weight Class: Featherweight (145 lbs.)

Amil vs. Rodriguez Model Results:

Featherweight is where the first three fights of the main card will take place, but this bout saves the best for last.

“Hurricane” Hyder Amil is an all-action warrior whose quick rise to fame was no secret:

The now-36-year-old won three in a row in exciting fashion before recent setbacks. Though he’s claimed health was a factor, a first-round KO loss to Jose Delgado and a wrestling-heavy decision loss to Jamall Emmers have him in a near-must-win position.

“CeeRod” might be best known as “the prospect killer” to some. He’s taken down Raul Rojas Jr., Austin Bashi, and other 20-somethings at the peak of their powers. It’s veterans who have given the grappler problems; Jonathan Pearce, Melquizael Costa, and Julian Erosa all turned him aside.

An obvious striker-versus-wrestler dynamic is at play. After giving up 7 takedowns to Emmers, Amil must keep his feet. Rodriguez has to show the ability to land meaningful offense when vets aren’t overwhelmed by his pressure.

Both of these guys typically build as the fight goes, so it’ll be fascinating to see who has more gas in the tank.

Predict the Amil vs. Rodriguez winner at UFC Vegas 119 on PrizePicks.

Amil vs. Rodriguez Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Hyder Amil - 43.5 Significant Strikes

CeeRod is a tough cookie to crumble. Just two of his nine UFC opponents have crested 50 significant strikes thanks to the grimy, close nature with which he fights.

In turn, though, the opportunities for a high-paced Hurricane (11.17 significant strikes attempted per minute) could be there because of length. Rodriguez hasn’t landed a UFC knockdown in this time, and Amil hasn’t been submitted as a pro.

This projection will be in definite peril if Rodriguez can pile up takedowns like Emmers was, but Amil’s takedown D (65%) is slightly above average overall.

Make Your Amil vs. Rodriguez pick for UFC Vegas 119 on PrizePicks.

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Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Melsik Baghdasaryan 3.44x | Murtazali Magomedov 1.26x

Weight Class: Featherweight (145 lbs.)

One of last season’s brightest stars on Dana White’s Contender Series will open his career on a UFC main card.

Kyrgyzstan’s Murtazali Magomedov wasted no time, earning his contract in 97 seconds against Brahyam Zurcher:

That was one of the highest-level matchups of the season that Magomedov made look like light work. He’s a densely built, well-rounded prospect that held the OKTAGON featherweight champion regionally before this call.

However, Melsik “The Gun” Baghdasaryan isn’t the lightest possible first test for him. The 3-2 UFC veteran’s sensational kicking game and versatile striking array have earned him several highlights against entry-level competition:

That's the precise problem, though. Baghdasaryan’s UFC wins are over opponents a combined 2-11 with the promotion, if you also count his Contender Series victory over Dennis Buzukja.

The ground is especially where Baghdasaryan struggles. Josh Culibao submitted him in just 14 seconds of control time.

The standup in this fight should be very competitive and entertaining, but the battle could take a different tenor on the mat.

Predict the Baghdasaryan vs. Magomedov winner at UFC Vegas 119 on PrizePicks.

Baghdasaryan vs. Magomedov Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Melsik Baghdasaryan - 26.5 Significant Strikes

Pace vs. efficiency is a discussion that needs to happen around Baghdasaryan’s significant strikes projection, and that’s even before the wrestling danger.

Only using lands per minute, Baghdasaryan (5.04) looks like a high-paced striker. His efficiency has been so high that it masks a much more pedestrian rate of attempts per minute (8.54), and that’s a product of his poor competition.

Ultimately, that’s nitpicking why this projection is significantly below his career per-fight average (63.6). Magomedov can wrestle, and Baghdasaryan hasn’t faced a multi-time UFC winner averaging north of 1.00 takedown per 15 minutes.

Make Your Baghdasaryan vs. Magomedov pick for UFC Vegas 119 on PrizePicks.

Vinicius Oliveira vs. Andre Fili Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Vinicius Oliveira 1.35x | Andre Fili 2.94x

Weight Class: Featherweight (145 lbs.)

Oliveira vs. Fili Model Results:

Despite facing a brutal weight cut in each fight, Vinicius “Lokdog” Oliveira seemed destined for stardom at bantamweight and tore through its rankings with consecutive wins over Kyler Phillips, Said Nurmagomedov, Ricky Simon, and Bernado Sopaj.

However, his first UFC main event with Mario Bautista didn't go according to plan. The lethargic-looking Brazilian lost by finish for the first time in his career.

Oliveira has said enough is enough. He’s moving up to featherweight against a great measuring stick just outside the rankings: Andre “Touchy” Fili.

The Californian and longtime member of Urijah Faber’s Team Alpha Male gym can’t be judged solely by a 13-12 record when he's fought the best of the best this division has to offer. He’s taken on top prospects like Jose Delgado and Christian Rodiguez to competitive decisions in his last two bouts.

That’s nothing new. Fili has miraculously gone to a split decision in five of his last 12. Lokdog will have to put him out if he wants to keep things from getting sweaty, but it’s not totally unheard against the veteran who has battled chin problems:

…and decision-making in submission attempts.

Predict the Oliveira vs. Fili winner at UFC Vegas 119 on PrizePicks.

Oliveira vs. Fili Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Andre Fili - Significant Strikes

Having mentioned Fili’s recent propensity for length, it’s a curious model result that this fight is projected to go the distance just 41.2% of the time.

Oliveira is coming off a fight where he did not grapple well. He surrendered 5 takedowns to Bautista, which could invite Fili’s natural wrestling habits (5.04 takedowns per 15 minutes) as the favorite moves up in weight. That gameplan wouldn’t help counting totals for significant strikes, though.

The pace here is pretty pedestrian. Oliveira (11.00 significant strikes attempted per minute) is more voluminous than Fili (10.49), but his sample size is also much smaller.

Make Your Oliveira vs. Fili pick for UFC Vegas 119 on PrizePicks.

Make UFC Fight Night Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC Vegas 119 goes down this Saturday night, boasting a stacked slate of fighters who are looking to climb up the ranks. Lock in your UFC predictions for tonight's main card, which starts at 8:00 p.m. ET.

Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC Fight Night, headlined by Kape vs. Horiguchi, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money, available in 35 states!

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