UFC Fight Night Predictions – Muhammad vs. Bonfim & Main Card Fights Tonight

The global MMA leader returns to the Meta Apex for an exciting UFC Fight Night card — or UFC Vegas 118 — on Saturday, June 6. In the UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim main event tonight, the former welterweight champion, Muhammad, will look to preserve his ranking against the explosive Brazilian grappler, Bonfim. 

The Muhammad vs. Bonfim main event is expected to be a tight one according to projections, with current public money favoring Muhammad, with a 1.78x payout and a 52% implied chance to win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

In the UFC Fight Night co-main event, Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan, two contending middleweights with something to prove collide, both on win streaks entering UFC Vegas 118.

We will give you an in-depth UFC Fight Night preview for every main card fight at UFC Vegas 118, including our UFC Fight Night predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks.

Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main card is set to start at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with prelims starting at 5 p.m. ET

Make your UFC Fight Night predictions on PrizePicks now — including winners and method of victory!

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UFC Fight Night Predictions for Muhammad vs. Bonfim & Main Card Fights

Before we get into our UFC Fight Night predictions for Saturday night’s UFC Vegas 118 card, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

Here is the UFC Fight main card for Saturday night, expected to start at 8 p.m. ET with the first main card fight. The prelim card will begin at 5 p.m. ET.

• Main Event: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim – Welterweight
• Co-Main Event: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan – Middleweight
• Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan – Lightweight
• Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna – Bantamweight
• Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa – Light Heavyweight

We've listed the payouts to win each UFC Fight Night main card fight, via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 35 states, including Florida, California, and Texas!

Learn more about Austin Swaim's UFC model here, with all results included below.

Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Belal Muhammad 1.78x | Gabriel Bonfim 1.96x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Welterweight (170 lbs.)

Muhammad vs. Bonfim Model Results:

This is a dangerous fight for a former champion trying to avoid a three-fight losing skid. Belal Muhammad has seen his last title fight, against Jack Della Maddalena, and a top-contender fight, against Ian Garry, go against him by decision:

“Remember the Name” is a true testament to work ethic and fight IQ, overcoming obvious athleticism concerns to post a +0.61 striking success rate (SSR) with his boxing. Defense is where the Palestinian fighter shines, posting elite striking (55%) and takedown defense (90%). He hasn’t lost via finish since his third UFC fight in 2016.

Unfortunately, Father Time comes for all of us, and Muhammad is now 37-years-old. That’s a dangerous position opposite a fresh, rising contender like Gabriel Bonfim.

The Brazilian welterweight started his UFC-affiliated tenure with three dominant submissions before a stunning (T)KO loss to Nicolas Dalby, where he got overzealous trying to finish the Danish underdog and paid dearly for his poor energy management:

Bonfim has regathered a four-fight winning streak since that 2023 setback.

Especially in a five-round fight like this, the gas tank will be a major focus for Bonfim as his SSR (+1.40) and takedown offense (3.60 landed per 15 minutes) will likely get the better of an aging Muhammad when fresh. 

However, the veteran of the two has proven he can push a relentless pace over 25 minutes, averaging 95.5 significant strikes and 6.0 takedowns landed in his last two five-rounders.

Like a great ending to a motorsports race, we’ll see who can manage their fuel better in Saturday’s main event.

Predict the Muhammad vs. Bonfim Winner at UFC Vegas 118 on PrizePicks

Muhammad vs. Bonfim Pick for UFC on PrizePicks

Belal Muhammad – 69.5 Significant Strikes

The location and tenor of this 5-round fight are both extremely ambiguous

Does Muhammad try to wrestle Bonfim to the ground — potentially to his own detriment? Bonfim has three variations of guillotine or front chokes, should he get reckless, but the former champ’s entire run toward the title was built on his wrestling and mixing it up from there.

At striking range, Bonfim’s 63% defense has been elite thus far. Dalby landed the most total significant strikes (53) against a helpless version of him, but that’s an obstacle to the Chicago-based favorite, who isn’t the most technical boxer despite serviceable results when pressuring forward.

Ultimately, Muhammad hasn’t ever scored a UFC knockdown. That’s right — not one in 21 career starts. He’s seen the full distance in 16 of those 21 starts. 

You can only make his significant strike projection so low in a fight he’s expected to compete (if not win), but it will be an extraordinary challenge to land on Bonfim even in a full-duration bout.

Make your Muhammad vs. Bonfim Pick in the UFC Fight Night main event on PrizePicks

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Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Brendan Allen 1.47x | Edmen Shahbazyan 2.56x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs.)

Allen vs. Shahbazyan Model Results:

A golden opportunity is being presented for “The Golden Boy” in Saturday’s co-main event.

Edmen Shahbazyan wasn’t ready for his first career main event at 23 and struggled to a 5-4 record to begin his promotional tenure, but the Xtreme Couture product has rallied to win four of his last five and set up a date with a top-five contender. 

Increased patience has been a signature of Shahbazyan’s recent stretch, but he got back to his early-stoppage tendencies against Andre Muniz last October:

On the other side, Brendan Allen is coming off his biggest win as a pro. He melted Reiner de Ridder in Vancouver last October, as well, to a point where the Dutch veteran didn’t get off the stool to begin Round 5. It was the signature win “All-In” has been looking for after losses to Anthony Hernandez, Sean Strickland, and Nassourdine Imavov.

Especially early, Shahbazyan (+0.20 SSR) might be the cleaner guy at distance when Allen (-0.03 SSR) has always been particularly hittable and burrows his way into the clinch. There, the underdog’s takedown defense (66%) could potentially decide the bout.

Allen is typically a fighter who builds over time, while Shahbazyan’s history — especially being forced to grapple — presents a man who wilts under the same conditions. That discrepancy will test what seems to be a recent improvement as Shahbazyan, 29, enters his prime.

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Allen vs. Shahbazyan Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Allen vs. Shahbazyan – 11.5 Minutes Fight Time

Don’t look at the model’s projection for an early stoppage (63.1%) and think this projection is an easy one to solve. It certainly isn’t.

Seven of Shahbazyan’s nine UFC wins have come in Round 1, which gives a lot of pull toward an early stoppage. However, the middleweight has also been the full distance in two of his last three, with an intentional focus on patience.

Allen has also shown an increased longevity, going the full distance in four of his last five. The exception was the 20-minute bout with RDR, too.

Is that a legitimate change of direction, or are these two fighters – both carrying striking defenses south of 50% – just due for a mistake at some point? When would it happen?

Forecasting the length of this fight is fascinating.

Make Your Allen vs. Shahbazyan Pick for UFC Vegas 118 on PrizePicks

Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Fares Ziam 1.29x | Tom Nolan 3.22x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)

Ziam vs. Nolan Model Results:

A recent trend in UFC has been matching highly touted 20-somethings as prospects against each other. They’ll do it again here at 155 pounds.

Fares Ziam might have had an argument to fight into the rankings as he rides a six-fight winning streak, but he’ll give Tom “Big Train” Nolan an opportunity to steal his shine. 

Ziam’s best performance was his last, limiting Nazim Sadykhov to 4 significant strikes with dominant back control before a thunderous elbow:

Nolan will certainly have his work cut out for him as Ziam’s early-career grappling limitations have become a strength. Still, you can’t count out the Aussie prospect, who stands a towering 6’3” for this division with a lanky reach (73”). 

Nolan was knocked out in his UFC debut but has won three straight since, including smothering Charlie Campbell last September

It isn’t Ziam’s fault, but some of his recent competition against whom we laud this improvement — like Sadykhov, Matt Frevola, Claudio Puelles, and others — have completely tanked and been forced to the roster bubble.

On paper, the French favorite’s shortcoming is a lack of volume. He lands just 2.87 significant strikes per minute historically, and Nolan (5.87) can run circles around him on the cards if Ziam isn’t making his strikes count. 

Plus, the underdog’s length is a real concern if he can find the back. This prospect battle seems like anyone’s fight.

Predict the Ziam vs. Nolan Winner at UFC Vegas 118 on PrizePicks

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Ziam vs. Nolan Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Fares Ziam – 38.5 Significant Strikes

Tom Nolan’s gameplan could have a lot to do with which side of this projection ends up coming to fruition.

Nolan has wrestled at times (3.36 takedown attempts per 15 minutes), but he hasn’t been particularly efficient in securing them (22%). Ziam’s 71% takedown defense is quite good, too.

That could leave this fight at a distance, where Ziam is a mixed bag. This is a fairly low mark for a 15-minute fight, but Nolan’s chin is questionable, and Ziam’s aforementioned land rate doesn’t make any counting stat a breeze.

Make Your Ziam vs. Nolan Pick for UFC Vegas 118 on PrizePicks

Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Bryce Mitchell 1.69x | Santiago Luna 2.04x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs.)

You can do nothing but tip your cap to gangsters like 21-year-old Santiago Luna, who is stepping up on short notice to face a nine-time UFC winner. Fear isn’t a word that fits.

Luna is a superstar prospect from Mexico who just dismantled Angel Pacheco for 131 significant strikes and 5 takedowns landed. The problem is that Pacheco was his stiffest test yet on a schedule that is 1-6 combined in UFC-affiliated bouts.

Bryce Mitchell (9-3 UFC) is a huge step up. The former featherweight has faced — and had moments of success against — Ilia Topuria, Jean Silva, Dan Ige, and Edson Barboza. 

It’s remarkable that Mitchell won eight times in the weight class when short on size, and he looked dominant in his 135-pound debut against Said Nurmagomedov, posting 9:44 in control time:

The Mexican’s Greco-Roman wrestling background gives him a path to stuff Mitchell’s takedowns as, presumably, the stronger striker. Luna’s +4.38 SSR has “generational” written all over it, considering his age. 

However, the developmental age window before 30 exists for a reason, and he’s fought nothing but losing competitions to this point.

It’s not unprecedented for a prospect to step up like this and win, and Luna’s peripheral stats make him a great candidate. Mitchell, though, has some of the most dominant MMA grappling on the roster — and that task on short notice is quite the obstacle.

Predict the Mitchell vs. Luna Winner at UFC Vegas 118 on PrizePicks

Mitchell vs. Luna Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Santiago Luna – 34.5 Significant Strikes

Those supporting the young prospect, Santiago Luna, this week cite Mitchell’s shortcomings against Josh Emmett as a sign his chin might be failing:

If you find yourself in that camp, Luna’s counting totals for significant strikes might not end up particularly high. He’ll also have to overcome the historical problem posed by Mitchell’s grappling threat. 

Just 2 of Mitchell’s 14 UFC-affiliated opponents have crested 35 significant strikes in their fight with “Thug Nasty”.

Those trends meet Luna’s fervent pace (8.20 significant strikes per minute landed), where the path to a big night could be the Arkansas native’s historical durability staying intact while struggling to land takedowns.

Make Your Mitchell vs. Luna Pick for UFC Vegas 118 on PrizePicks

Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa Prediction for UFC Night Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Iwo Baraniewski 1.23x | Junior Tafa 3.70x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (205 lbs.)

It’s a bit surprising UFC is putting such an obvious draw in jeopardy with a volatile clash at 205 pounds.

Iwo Baraniewski didn’t take long to be a fan favorite. He and Ibo Aslan’s fight last year featured 3 knockdowns in under two minutes, representing the sloppiest, most violent UFC fight I’ve seen as a fan for over a decade:

The Polish prospect followed that up with a sub-one-minute knockout of Austen Lane. It’s been a stunning UFC tenure for someone who arrived on the Contender Series with a judo background and two pro wins via armbar in a limited sample.

We’ll see if Baraniewski deploys those grappling routes as a path to least resistance around Australian slugger Junior Tafa on Saturday night.

Tafa is unapologetically a boom-or-bust marauder, posting a 3-5 UFC record with all wins by vicious knockout. He’s been submitted or controlled for over 80% of the fight in each of his setbacks.

Aslan dropped Baraniewski in that ugly fight last year, so the wrong gameplan could be extremely costly against “The Juggernaut”. However, the underdog’s grappling shortcomings make a violent, decisive ending here feel somewhat inevitable. 

Predict the Baraniewski vs. Tafa Winner at UFC Vegas 118 on PrizePicks

Baraniewski vs. Tafa Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Baraniewski vs. Tafa – 3.75 Minutes Fight Time

The fight-time projection is implying that it’s a good thing Iwo Baraniewski isn’t getting paid by the minute. This 3.75-minute projection is one of the shortest fight times I’ve ever seen.

Three consecutive wins for “Rudy” in under 90 seconds are likely why. 

We’re looking at 225 seconds here, which is a duration that Tafa has lasted in each of his 5 UFC losses. In fact, Tafa’s submission loss to Valter Walker with four seconds to spare in Round 1 was his fastest loss.

Baraniewski’s aggression is unquestioned, but the Australian’s historical granite chin and submission defense when fresh make this one a little interesting.

Make Your Baraniewski vs. Tafa Pick for UFC Vegas 118 on PrizePicks

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Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC Fight Night: How it Works

I've created a predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each UFC Fight Night main card fight are listed above as "model results".

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be included in the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible for a result.

Each eligible UFC Fight Night main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks tonight.

Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

Make UFC Fight Night Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC Fight Night goes down this Saturday night at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, with a stacked card of fighters who are looking to climb up the ranks. In the main event, Muhammad vs. Bonfim, we get a fight that could come down to energy levels late, and in the co-main, a toss up between Allen vs. Shahbazyan — two fighters on win streaks. 

Before the prelim action gets underway on Paramount+ at 5 p.m. ET, lock in your UFC predictions for tonight's main card, which starts at 8 p.m. ET.

Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC Vegas 118, headlined by Muhammad vs. Bonfim, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money, available in 35 states!

Stay tapped into Playbook for more UFC predictions, picks, and analysis for every card, every weekend.