A bad-blooded rivalry will be settled in the UFC Middleweight title fight on Saturday as Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland finally crush their training camp beef in the UFC 328 main event.
Plus, the flyweight belt is on the line in the co-main event, Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira.
We will give you an in-depth preview of every main card fight for UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, including our UFC 328 predictions, model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for every main card fight.
The UFC 328 main card is set to start at 9 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with the prelims starting at 5 p.m. ET.
Make your UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland predictions on PrizePicks on winners, method of victory, significant strikes, and more
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UFC 328 Predictions for Chimaev vs. Strickland, Main Card Fights
Before we get into our UFC 328 predictions for Saturday night, a brief intro on what you'll find below in our preview below.
We've listed the payouts for who will win each UFC 328 fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. A 2x means that result will payout $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher chance of that result based on user picks.
PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner, method of victory, and more markets available in 35 states.
Swaim’s UFC Predictions Model: How It Works
I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.
To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35+ minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to produce model results, which is why some fights will be ineligible.
Each UFC 328 main card fight is listed below with model data to assist you when you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks tonight.
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All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.
UFC 328 Main Event: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland Prediction
Fight Winner Payouts: Khamzat Chimaev 1.19x | Sean Strickland 4.34x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs.)
Chimaev vs. Strickland Model Results:
Khamzat “The Wolf” Chimaev will hunt again on Saturday night, and we’ll see if one of UFC’s all-time upset kings — Sean Strickland — can become the first opponent to turn him away in 10 tries.
Chimaev’s 9-0 UFC career dates back to 2020, when he won two fights in just 10 days. Chimaev’s dominant grappling has produced gaudy stats like 5.29 takedowns and 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes as he’s patently “smeshed” foes on the ground.
Most can’t weather the storm, but Chimaev showed no issues going a full 25 minutes against Dricus du Plessis, posting 12 takedowns and 21:40 in control time.
Du Plessis didn’t have the defensive wrestling answers to compete, as we saw Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman – welterweights – manage at times. Most believe Sean Strickland, the former 185-pound champ, does have what they didn't.
Strickland’s 76% takedown defense isn’t even really the full story. He’s got a tremendous get-up game and hasn’t been controlled for more than 150 seconds in a fight since returning to the 185-pound division in October 2020.
At striking distance, Strickland’s +1.47 striking success rate (SSR) comes with a steady volume of small shots like jabs and teep kicks. He just used this formula to stuff Anthony Hernandez’s wrestling advances and piece up the American for a third-round (T)KO.
As usual, Strickland’s pre-fight, profanity-laden trash talk has created some really bad blood to the point UFC is avoiding these two in the same room:
It seems like a fairly straightforward matchup; Chimaev hasn’t faced much resistance from others and seems to be improving each appearance, but Strickland’s anti-wrestling could make this type of fight where the Chechen isn’t extremely comfortable.
We should know quickly what resistance Strickland can – if he can – provide to the UFC Middleweight champ.
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Chimaev vs. Strickland Pick for PrizePicks UFC
Khamzat Chimaev – 46.5 Significant Strikes
Chimaev’s last effort was a particularly uneventful one in terms of damage because Dricus Du Plessis simply never had the answers to unlatch The Wolf’s patented seatbelt.
Strickland certainly does, which means I’m expecting there may be more moments in this fight where he is forced to strike at distance. Plus, the added bad blood Strickland is causing in media circles this week will probably work to his detriment if Chimaev can manage dominant positions to rain down elbows or punches.
The American’s own pace also works well for significant strike totals. Even Hernandez, who was getting mopped, landed 55 significant strikes in less than 9 minutes because Strickland himself pushes such a fervent tempo of 14.38 significant strikes attempted per minute.
More time at striking range – and a little extra motivation to clean Strickland’s clock – should lead to better per-minute striking numbers for Khamzat. Of course, the fear of this significant strike total would be an early finish, but Strickland hasn’t been submitted in 24 UFC appearances, and my model forecasts this fight as 48.9% likely to go the full distance.
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UFC 328 Co-Main Event: Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira Prediction
Fight Winner Payouts: Joshua Van 2.32x | Tatsuro Taira 1.56x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lbs.)
Van vs. Taira Model Results:
The UFC flyweight division has some of the best young talent in UFC — as evidenced by this title matchup of two fighters yet to celebrate their 27th birthday.
Joshua Van currently holds the UFC title in a somewhat underwhelming manner. His title fight with Alexandre Pantoja ended in under two minutes due to Pantoja's arm injury, which is a loss in MMA.
Van has received a ton of pushback for celebrating at the mountain top when he didn’t do much to get there, but the Burmese fighter’s meteoric rise up the rankings can’t be forgotten. He boxed opponents’ heads off by landing a whopping 8.84 significant strikes per minute with elite takedown defense (81%) and anti-grappling. Rei Tsuruya landed just 4-of-21 takedown attempts on him.
Therefore, Tatsuro Taira is going to have to put the arts together if he wants to floor Van for a seventh early stoppage win — all coming via ground game. The Japanese prospect is 8-1 in UFC, with his only loss coming via split decision to Brandon Royval in October 2024.
Since then, Taira has rolled finished Park Hyun-sung (R2, submission) and Brandon Moreno (R2, KO/TKO)
This is a captivating matchup where both guys are so young and inexperienced that we’ll really find out whether their perceived weaknesses become fatal flaws. Does Van stuff the takedowns and punish Taira’s low striking defense (47%). Before entering UFC in 2023, Van was submitted on the regional scene, so can Taira establish a level there?
Because MMA’s scoring criteria favors striking damage over ground control, Van probably wins minutes in this one if he’s able to stuff the shots, but I wouldn’t blame anyone for believing in Taira’s creative, opportunistic grappling. This is a great fight.
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Van vs. Taira Pick for PrizePicks UFC
Joshua Van – 75.5 Significant Strikes
My thoughts and prayers are with whoever is tasked with setting PrizePicks’ significant strike projection for Joshua Van this week, because the range of outcomes is realistically anywhere from 0 to 300.
The former (0) would be an early, dominant ground victory for Taira. The latter (300) could be if Van can stuff the wrestling advances and pour it on with his elite volume and so-so punching power (0.46% knockdown rate) to wear on the favorite for 25 minutes.
Still, we have a doppelganger matchup for Taira that Van has faced twice. Tsuruya attempted 21 takedowns, and Van still landed 3.67 significant strikes per minute in that fight. Similarly, he managed 11.00 per minute against Cody Durden’s 8 takedown attempts.
Van’s total will largely follow the tenor of this fight and how often he’s able to escape Taira’s clutches, but the way he can pile up strikes quickly seems particularly favorable to his totals if my model’s verdict about this fight going a full 25 minutes a majority of the time is correct.
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Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction for UFC 328
Fight Winner Payouts: Alexander Volkov 1.56x | Waldo Cortes-Acosta 2.32x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 lbs.)
Volkov vs. Cortes-Acosta Model Results:
Heavyweight’s title picture is getting more and more exclusive. This fight between Alexander Volkov and Waldo Cortes-Acosta might be for one to decide the final seats at the table.
“Drago” Volkov might be one of the promotion’s most unheralded fighters with just four setbacks to three quality opponents — Derrick Lewis, Cyril Gane, and Tom Aspinall — in an 18-fight career, and he’s aged with grace at 37.
The Russian’s reliable +1.92 SSR features a gargantuan 80-inch reach. Volkov has made dramatic ground improvements to survive — and defeat — a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt like Jailton Almeida in his last bout.
It should be a strikers’ delight against Cortes-Acosta, though.
“Salsa Boy” has attempted just 0.77 takedowns per 15 minutes because his striking (+2.16 SSR) has been so dominant, as well. The former baseball player is a great athlete with plus balance and thudding low kicks, and he’s gone on a power binge to win three straight inside the rankings by knockout.
Volkov is more of a building storm than Cortes-Acosta’s improving punching power (0.94% knockdown rate), but, given both fighters’ durability, the model projects this fight to go the distance 63.1% of the time for a reason. A knockout here could go a long way to making the statement both are hoping for, though.
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Volkov vs. Cortes-Acosta Pick for PrizePicks UFC
Alexander Volkov – 54.5 Significant Strikes
Volkov's recent tendency to lean into his grappling has led to a significant strike count below 60 in five of his last seven fights. That might not change in this fight, unless he’s having his way with Waldo at striking distance early.
Cortes-Acosta’s 56% striking defense — predicated on a great ability to dart out of range — is a tough cookie to crumble. He’s absorbed just 3.38 significant strikes per minute despite almost all of his fights playing out at distance.
The Russian’s willingness to mix it up is one source of jeopardy to his significant strike total, and his other is that larger-than-expected model result for an early Cortes-Acosta KO (18.2%). Both fighters’ totals would be capped if Salsa Boy can find the button early once more.
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Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley Prediction for UFC 328
Fight Winner Payouts: Sean Brady 1.56x | Joaquin Buckley 2.27x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Welterweight (170 lbs.)
Brady vs. Buckley Model Results:
After setbacks in their previous fights, this is a must-win (and must-improve) spot for Sean Brady and Joaquin Buckley, who lag behind Carlos Prates in the title picture after his emphatic statement last week vs. Jack Della Maddalena.
Brady could never close the distance on Michael Morales, the massive Ecuadorian who will likely fight Prates next. Philadelphia’s own has made his reputation known as one of the most smothering grappling artists in the division, landing 3.53 takedowns and 0.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He was the first pro fighter to submit this division’s former champ, Leon Edwards.
That likely gives him a little bonus confidence heading into this matchup with Buckley. “New Mansa” has never been submitted as a pro, but he also makes no bones about his strategy.
He’s coming for a highlight knockout like his one against Impa Kasanganay, which should forever stand as one of the best in the history of UFC:
Buckley has several other highlights with his hands, though. His 1.25% knockdown rate is massive, and he’s 6-1 since dropping to welterweight. The problem? His last fight revealed some holes in his defense as Kamaru Usman won a decision with 4 takedowns.
This is one of those fights where hindsight will look crystal clear.
If Brady goes out to an early Buckley KO, we can’t trust his durability. If Buckley can’t stuff takedowns and even gets finished on the mat, it’s his fatal flaw at this level of competition. It’ll be interesting to see which side wins out.
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Brady vs. Buckley Pick for PrizePicks – UFC 328
Sean Brady – 3 Takedowns
I have a feeling that, given Usman’s wrestling success against Buckley, this prediction will carry some popularity one way or another on Saturday. Brady’s historical gameplan is no secret.
However, it’s worth remembering that the Usman bout was 25 minutes, and Buckley still defended 9-of-13 tries from the esteemed world champion. As his 72% takedown D indicates, he’s a strong guy who is hard to initially floor.
But that also works against Brady’s takedown projection, as Buckley didn’t seem to have many answers getting up in that fight after it happened. Usman averaged 194 seconds of control time per takedown in Atlanta last year.
Buckley’s knockout power and Brady’s submission danger also led my model to expect an early stoppage 54.2% of the time in this fight. That’s an extremely viable result for both men to jeopardize any counting totals.
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King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens Prediction for UFC 328
Fight Winner Payouts: King Green 1.28x | Jeremy Stephens 3.44x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)
Green vs. Stephens Model Results:
Jeremy “Lil’ Heathen” Stephens hasn’t won a UFC fight since 2018. But he is on the main card of a numbered UFC event for one reason: he always brings the action.
Stephens is a brawler who has even taken to simultaneous events with Bare Knuckle Fighting Championships in addition to his UFC duties, losing to former UFC fighter Mike Perry by fifth-round (T)KO last October. H
is return to UFC came last year in his home city, Des Moines, Iowa, but he was unable to stop Mason Jones’ takedown onslaught (8 landed) to get his hand raised.
We’ll see if Stephens can find a way to end his losing streak against King Green, coming off a dominant upset of Daniel Zellhuber in Mexico. Many want to write off the 39-year-old veteran, but his unique vision and hand speed are still extremely effective at distance (+2.80 SSR).
Ranked competition was too much to handle for Green, with first-round losses to Paddy Pimblett, Mauricio Ruffy, and Jalin Turner, but he’s found an effective home in this “senior circuit” of lightweight.
Though this fight may play out predominantly at striking distance, Green has a 9-3 pro record by submission, compared to Stephens’ 3-5 record. It’s food for thought when predicting this fight if it goes to the mat.
The elephant in the room here is that Stephens doesn’t have a knockdown since moving to lightweight as a career featherweight. If he doesn’t carry one-shot power, it’ll be tough to outpoint Green on a per-minute basis. It just can’t be ruled out, though, given Green’s five losses inside the first 10 minutes since the start of 2022.
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Green vs. Stephens Pick for PrizePicks UFC
Green vs. Stephens – 14.99 Minutes Fight Time
This is an interesting three-round fight (15 minutes) for which to conjecture a projected distance.
Green is no stranger to “playing with his food”, dragging seven UFC foes to a full-distance bout despite a striking differential of at least +30.
Even if he’s getting the better of Stephens, Green hasn’t always been the most reliable power threat, as evidenced by his low 0.32% knockdown rate.
However, he also wasn’t always facing a former 145-pounder whose precipitous decline has resulted in seven straight starts without a win. Plus, Stephens probably knows — or will quickly learn — he’s probably “knockout or bust” in a fight with an all-time point fighter. That’s where both chances and mistakes can happen.
Add in two chins approaching 40 years old, plus that sneaky upside submission for Green that I mentioned earlier, and the model’s 58.0% likelihood of this fight ending early becomes clearer.
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Make UFC 328 Predictions on PrizePicks
The much-anticipated, stacked card UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland goes down this Saturday evening from Newark, New Jersey, with a stacked card of fighters that are looking to climb up the ranks. Before UFC 328 gets underway on Paramount+ at 5 p.m. ET, lock in your UFC predictions for tonight's card.
Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections for UFC 328, headlined by Chimaev vs. Strickland, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.
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