The final spots in the NCAA Tournament national semifinals will be earned on Sunday, March 29, as No. 2 UConn and No. 1 Duke renew its postseason rivalry in the East regional final in Washington, D.C.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Duke is a 5.5-point favorite for today's 5:05 p.m. ET tip-off on CBS. The winner of this regional final will advance to the national semifinals to meet Illinois on April 4 in Indianapolis.
Below, we’ll break down our UConn vs. Duke prediction on the spread for Sunday's game. Make your NCAA Tournament picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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UConn vs. Duke Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
In 1999, UConn and Duke met in the national championship game, with UConn upsetting the No. 1 seed Blue Devils for the school’s first national title. In 2004, the programs met again in the national semifinals, with UConn reigning victorious en route to their second national title.
The two, which have combined for 11 national titles, also met in the 1990 Round of 8 (won by Duke) and 1991 Round of 16 (won by Duke). The fifth postseason meeting, on Sunday, will decide a spot in the 2026 national semifinals.
UConn won 22 of its first 23 games of this season, with the lone loss to then-No. 4 Arizona in the AP Top 25 Poll. This impressive stretch included wins over defending champion Florida and then-No. 7 BYU.
The Huskies finished the season losing four of their last 11 games, including two blowout losses to St. John’s, before rallying to win the first three games of the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies are in the Round of 8 for the third time in four years, which includes back-to-back national titles in 2023 and 2024.
Duke, who has been ranked No. 1 in both polls since defeating former No. 1 Michigan on February 21, has won 35 of 37 games this season, losing only by one and three points to Texas Tech and North Carolina.
The Blue Devils won both the ACC regular-season and tournament championships and are in the Round of 8 for the third straight season, looking to advance to the national semifinals for the 19th time in program history.
UConn vs. Duke Spread, Over/Under
Duke enters Thursday’s NCAA Tournament Round of 8 game as 5.5-point favorites, with a 1.44x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.
UConn is the underdog, with a 2.77x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Duke -5.5 (2.04x payout)
- Over/Under: 134.5 (1.88x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: UConn 2.77x | Duke 1.44x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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UConn vs. Duke Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/29/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your NCAA Tournament UConn vs. Duke college basketball prediction on the spread for Sunday, March 29, on PrizePicks.
- The Huskies are 15-22 against the spread this season, fourth-worst in the Big East conference.
- However, UConn has covered in two of three tournament games and in 16 of the last 17 NCAA Tournament games, dating back to the 2023 championship run. The lone non-cover was in the first round vs. No. 15 seed Furman this year.
- The Huskies are a 5.5-point underdog to Duke, the first time all season they have been getting points. The last time they got points was vs. Florida in the second round last year, a game they lost but covered.
- Per KenPom, UConn is rated 10th in the country, behind four teams already eliminated from the NCAA Tournament.
- The Huskies have a 122.3 offensive rating (30th) and a 93.6 defensive rating (ninth).
- Duke is 20-17 against the spread this season, fifth in the ACC with a 54.1% cover rate.
- The Blue Devils have been favored by five or more points in all but three games this season (underdog twice) and are 18-16 in this spot.
- The five-time champions have a 12-2 record vs. ranked teams this season.
- Per KenPom, Duke is rated third in the country, with a 127.1 offensive rating (sixth) and a 90.2 defensive rating (second).
Make UConn vs. Duke Picks on PrizePicks
Can UConn revive the 2023 and 2024 magic and take one step closer to a seventh NCAA title? Or will Duke live up to its expectations and get back to the national semifinals for the second straight year? The UConn-Duke NCAA Tournament game is at 5:05 p.m. on CBS.
You can make your UConn vs. Duke picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news.
