Week 1 of the 2026 college football season is finally here, and Thursday night marks a glorious five-day stretch of games every day through Labor Day weekend. One of the more lopsided games on tonight's slate sees the Illinois Fighting Illini host the UAB Blazers at 9 p.m. ET on the Big Ten Network.
Illinois is an overwhelming favorite to win the late-night showdown, entering as 27.5-point favorites on the spread vs. UAB, according to PrizePicks.
Today’s UAB vs. Illinois meeting marks the first time these two programs have ever met on the gridiron
Below, we’ll break down our UAB vs. Illinois prediction and NCAAF picks for Thursday, September 3, in Week 1, including the spread and over/under on PrizePicks.
Make your UAB vs. Illinois picks on PrizePicks now!
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UAB vs. Illinois Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for NCAAF Week 1
UAB will look to close the chapter on the Trent Dilfer era of their program as they move forward with newly promoted head coach Alex Mortensen, who served as the OC last season and will continue to call plays on offense this season. Mortensen runs a spread-tempo, pass-heavy offense but will be working with an offensive unit returning just two starters from last year, both on the interior offensive line.
Defensively, the Blazers return zero starters from 2025, which is probably a good thing considering this was one of the worst defenses in all of football last year, allowing a shockingly bad 3.72 points per drive. It will likely be rough sledding, especially early in the season, for this new-look Blazers team.
Illinois head coach Brett Bielema has done a wonderful job of turning around an Illini program that was long considered average at best. Since taking over three years ago, he has led the Illinois to at least eight wins in each season and has gone 19-7 over the past two years.
The Illini will start this season without veteran playmaker QB Luke Altmeyer, instead turning to ECU transfer QB Katin Houser. Houser threw for over 5,300 yards in two seasons with East Carolina, and while he lacks Altmeyer's athleticism, he brings a quick trigger and elite accuracy.
UAB vs. Illinois Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Thursday, September 3
Illinois enters Thursday’s game as 27.5-point favorites against UAB, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the UAB vs. Illinois winner, spread, and total on PrizePicks today.
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Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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UAB vs. Illinois Pick Against the Spread for Thursday, September 3
Here are the key stats and trends behind our UAB vs. Illinois prediction on the 27.5-point spread for Thursday, September 3.
- I anticipate some rough sledding early in the season for this UAB team that is basically entirely new from top to bottom, including the coaching staff.
- Illinois, meanwhile, returns their top three rushers in a spot where they should be playing from ahead and have a notable size mismatch in the trenches against an undersized UAB defensive line.
- The Illini have done well as large favorites in recent history. Last year they covered as 48.5-point favorites against Western Illinois, beating them 52-3, and covered as 27.5-point favorites against Western Michigan, beating them 38-0.
- Since 2022, the Illini have gone 5-2-1 against the spread (ATS) against non-power conference opponents.
- Illinois will be transitioning to a 3-3-5 defense, which could actually serve them well in shoring up a pass defense that was below average last season.
- Against a UAB team whose preferred method of moving the ball will be through the air — ranking 19th in pass play percentage (55.2%) in 2025, having extra bodies in the secondary bodes well for the Fighting Illini.
Lock in your UAB vs. Illinois prediction on PrizePicks before Thursday’s NCAAF game
UAB vs. Illinois Picks, NCAAF Stats for PrizePicks – 9/3/26
Here are the top UAB vs. Illinois picks to target on PrizePicks on Thursday, September 3. Today’s NCAAF picks to target for PrizePicks include QB Ryder Burton and RB Aidan Laughery.
UAB QB Ryder Burton vs. Illinois: 177.5 Pass Yards
- As 27.5-point underdogs, UAB is projected to play this game from a significant deficit, which should lead to increased pass attempts for Burton.
- As mentioned above, UAB leaned on the pass to move the ball in 2025, ranking 19th out of 136 teams in pass play percentage at 55.2%.
- Burton started three games for the Blazers last season and recorded passing yard totals of 213, 209, and 251 yards.
- The Illini aren’t a particularly scary pass defense. Last season, they allowed a 63.6% completion percentage on 33 attempts per game.
- UAB HC Alex Mortensen runs a spread-tempo, pass-heavy offense that will both play fast and throw the ball early and often. A perfect combination for racking up passing yards.
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Illinois RB Aidan Laughery vs. UAB: 64.5 Rush Yards
- As 27.5-point favorites, Illinois is projected to play from ahead, which should lead to more rushing attempts from the Illini, especially in the second half.
- Since Laughery is the RB2 on this roster, it is more likely that he is the back who is getting most of the projected garbage-time carries if Illinois runs away with this game.
- In the Illini’s two massive wins last season against Western Michigan and Western Illinois, it was the RB2 who received the bulk of the carries. In fact, Laughery — who was the RB3 last season — led the team in rushing yards (101) during their 52-3 win against Western Illinois.
- The Illini receiving corps is a bit banged up coming into today’s game. FAU transfer Jayshon Platt is out for tonight while FIU transfer Alex Perry is out for the season. This, in addition to the likely big lead, could result in an offensive game plan seriously skewed towards the run game.
Add Aidan Laughery to your PrizePicks lineup now
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Make UAB vs. Illinois Picks for NCAAF Week 1 on PrizePicks
Illinois will look to continue cementing their program as a competitive one in the dominant Big Ten. The Illini should have a dominant day running the ball against an undersized front seven for UAB.
Will UAB QB Trey Burton be able to keep his team hanging around even as massive dogs? Or will the Illini send the Blazers back to Alabama in dominant fashion?
Don't wait until kickoff at 9 p.m. ET — make your UAB vs. Illinois picks on PrizePicks. There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the CFB board, so you can make predictions on yards, field goals, and more! Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you're right.
With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, futures, and more as we head into the 2026 season.
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