Türkiye and Italy meet in the UEFA Nations League on Monday, September 28 at Yüzüncü Yil Atatürk Stadyumu in Bursa, Türkiye, with kickoff set for 2:45 p.m. ET. Türkiye is favored to win and pick up key points in the A Group table.
Both teams suffered defeat in their opening fixture, and with six matches in total, the 3 points on offer are crucial for both sides. As both sides deal with injuries to key players, this could be quite a cagey affair.
Below, we’ll break down our Türkiye vs. Italy prediction and picks for Monday afternoon’s UEFA Nations League match, including key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Türkiye vs. Italy Prediction, Picks for UEFA Nations League – Monday, September 28
How to watch Türkiye vs. Italy: ViX
Kickoff Time: 2:45 p.m. ET
Venue: Yüzüncü Yil Atatürk Stadyumu, Bursa, Türkiye
Neither Türkiye nor Italy found the back of the net in their UEFA Nations League A Group openers despite each having more than a full expected goal. Türkiye fell 1-0 to France, even with a 1.21-1.17 xG advantage and matching France shot for shot on the day.
Italy was even worse. After dominating nearly the entire second half, they fell 2-0 at home to Belgium. They held the advantage in shots (21-19) and box touches (34-25) but wasted all four of their big chances and put just 6 of their 16 shots on target.
That said, Italy looked the far shakier outfit of the two. Türkiye held a loaded France side to just 2 big chances and 12 shots, four of which were on frame. They also conceded just 0.75 xG from open play.
Italy conceded 2.73 xG from open play and were fortunate that Belgium also wasted 4 big chances. GK Gianluigi Donnarumma was called upon to make 5 saves but only prevented 0.59 goals with those stops.
Türkiye must figure out a way to win without multiple key players on Monday. GK Uğurcan Çakir was shown a straight red card late in the match with France, and the shaky Altay Bayindir must replace him in goal.
Captain Hakan Çalhanoglu will be missing from central midfield due to injury, while Juventus CAM Kenan Yildiz is also sidelined. CM Orkun Kökçü is also likely to miss out despite a late fitness test.
The biggest blow for Italy is the absence of LB Federico Dimarco. The Azzurri rely heavily on his playmaking ability, but Arsenal LB Ricardo Calafiori will deputize.
Roberto Mancini may hope to get a stronger performance in attack than he did against Belgium, as the Italians continue to struggle to find a reliable goal-scoring option. Keeping possession of the ball and avoiding costly turnovers will be crucial.
Türkiye could aim to hit on the counter-attack utilizing their wingbacks when they regain possession. If the Italians allow spaces in the channels as they did against Belgium, that could be a recipe for success for the home side.
Türkiye vs. Italy Prediction on Total Goals – 9/28/26
Here are the key stats and trends for our Türkiye vs. Italy prediction on total goals before making your UEFA Nations League predictions on PrizePicks.
- Italy continues to struggle with scoring goals of late. The Azzurri have now scored multiple goals in just one of their last six matches, with just 6 goals scored in total in that span.
- Belgium’s 2 goals against Italy were the first they had allowed in three matches. The Azzurri have conceded just 3 goals in total in their last five outings.
- Türkiye have failed to score in three of their last four matches, an issue that could be exacerbated by the absence of Çalhanoglu and Yildiz.
- Just one of Türkiye’s last four matches have seen more than 2 goals scored.
- The most recent meeting between these nations on June 4, 2024 saw the sides play out a scoreless draw.
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Türkiye vs. Italy Projected Lineups – Monday, September 28
Here are the projected Türkiye vs. Italy lineups for today's UEFA Nations League match. Lineups are not official and are based on historical data.
Türkiye Lineup vs. Italy: Projected 3-4-2-1
- Goalkeeper: Altay Bayindir
- Defense: Zeki Çelik, Abdülkerim Bardakci, Merih Demiral
- Midfield: Eren Elmali, Salih Özcan, Ismail Yüksek, Ferdi Kadıoğlu
- Forwards: Arda Güler, Barış Yilmaz, Can Uzun
Italy Lineup vs. Türkiye: Projected 4-3-3
- Goalkeeper: Gianluigi Donnarumma
- Defense: Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Gianluca Mancini, Diego Coppola, Riccardo Calafiori
- Midfield: Nicolò Barella, Davide Frattesi, Sandro Tonali
- Forwards: Giacomo Raspadori, Francesco Pio Esposito, Nicolò Cambiaghi
Türkiye vs. Italy Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/28/26
Here are the top Türkiye vs. Italy player picks to target Monday, September 28. Today’s UEFA Nations League picks are headlined by Altay Bayindir and Sandro Tonali.
Türkiye GK Altay Bayindir vs. Italy: 3 Goalie Saves
- Türkiye GK Uğurcan Çakir made 3 saves prior to his red card, and Altay Bayindir replaced him on 87 minutes and picked up an additional save of his own.
- Italy tested Belgium GK Senne Lammens six times in their match last week and failed to find the back of the net.
- At World Cup 2026, Türkiye allowed 4.33 shots on target per 90 minutes.
- With Çalhanoglu being absent, Türkiye’s back line is left more exposed than usual. This could lead to an elevated shot total for the Italians, providing Bayindir with more opportunities to pick up saves.
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Italy CM Sandro Tonali vs. Türkiye: 48.5 Passes Attempted
- Sandro Tonali attempted 52 passes against Belgium as Italy held 56% of possession at home. Teams tend to hold less possession when playing on the road.
- During Italy’s World Cup qualification, Tonali averaged 35 passes per match.
- Tonali averaged 40.7 passes per 90 minutes in Italy’s 2024-25 Nations League run.
- With a second match in less than 96 hours, Tonali may not play the full 90 minutes as he was unsubbed against Belgium.
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Italy needs to make a statement after missing out on World Cup 2026, but Türkiye may want to erase the memories of their poor showing in the competition. The question is whether either side can solve its goal-scoring woes and walk away with all three points on Monday.
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