While the Friday MLB slate of games may not start until 6:40 p.m. ET, it features every single team partaking in a night contest. Under the bright lights, could there be some star-level performances that feature home run production?
Here at PrizePicks, we have plenty of home run projections on the board to add to your MLB picks today. Many hitters have already been singled out by users as popular home run picks for the day’s action.
Let’s dive into some of the most-picked MLB home run projections for Friday, May 15, including what makes each player a potential target for home run predictions.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Friday, May 15
There isn’t anything much better as a baseball fan than watching someone swat a ball over the fences. Home runs carry a high degree of difficulty, thus making them tricky to replicate time and time again. Despite that, some of the game’s best hitters still manage to do so.
More goes into hitting a home run than just skill, though. Launch angle, quality of contact, bat speed, pitcher tendencies, and even weather conditions can play a role in just how far a ball travels through the air. That makes predicting home runs a fun task, especially over the course of a 162-game schedule.
Daily home run projections are listed as Demons on PrizePicks, coming with higher payouts as a result. With that said, home runs can only be selected as “More” than 0.5.
Let’s take a look at the most popular home run picks today on PrizePicks. Picks are listed at time of writing.
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- Yankees RF Aaron Judge
- Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
- Blue Jays 3B Kazuma Okamoto
- Rays 3B Junior Caminero
- Reds SS Elly De La Cruz
- Yankees 1B Ben Rice
- White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
Three home run picks stand out as potential targets today. Let’s dive into the list, including a weather report from RotoGrinders.
Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.
Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – 6:40 p.m. ET
Pirates Starting Pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft
MLB Weather Report: 68 degrees, clear skies, 4 mph west wind
- Schwarber’s 18 home runs entering Friday’s play give him a 2-HR advantage over Judge for first place among all MLB players.
- The star slugger’s .384 ISO is a new career high by quite a bit, topping 2025’s .323 mark. The same can be said for his increase in SLG (.563 to .610).
- Ironically, Schwarber is actually logging hard hits at a rate (49.5%) just below his career average of 50.9%. He’s making up for it by increasing his launch angle to 23.3 degrees (a new personal high).
- Schwarber sits in the 96th percentile or better in xSLG (.565), bat speed (77.1 mph), and barrel rate (24.2%).
- Ashcraft struggles with getting hit hard, ranking in the 41st percentile in average exit velocity (89.4 mph).
- After surrendering a minuscule 0.39 HR/9 in his debut campaign last year, Ashcraft is up to 0.74 in 48.2 innings this year.
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Yankees RF Aaron Judge
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets – 7:10 p.m. ET
Mets Starting Pitcher: Clay Holmes
MLB Weather Report: 66 degrees, clear skies, 11 mph northwest wind
- All Rise! Judge’s ISO is up to .350, just a handful of points behind last year’s .357 threshold that contributed to him hitting 53 home runs.
- The 34-year-old’s xSLG of .639 is 21 points higher than his actual one at .618.
- No one ranks in a higher percentile (100th) than Judge in both xSLG and barrel rate (24.5%).
- Judge is pulling the ball 44.1% of the time, his most since 2023, which could allow him to tap into even more easy power as he continues to heat up.
- Holmes is outperforming his peripheral numbers, owning a 1.86 ERA but a 3.74 xERA. Additionally, his .222 BABIP is far lower than his career mark of .285, hinting that some regression could be coming.
- Not only that, but Holmes is in the 27th percentile in hard-hit rate (43.5%) and the 41st percentile in average exit velocity (89.4 mph).
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White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox – 7:40 p.m. ET
Cubs Starting Pitcher: Edward Cabrera
MLB Weather Report: 72 degrees, clear skies, 13 mph south wind
- Murakami’s rookie campaign has been everything the Sox could’ve asked for. He’s slugging .533 with a .307 ISO, and his .260 BABIP could leave some room for him to improve.
- When Murakami connects, he has otherworldly upside for distance, as evidenced by his 63.6% hard-hit rate and 114.1 mph max exit velocity.
- Murakami is in the 95th percentile in xSLG (.556) and the 98th percentile in barrel rate (23.0%) in his debut season.
- After five seasons with the Miami Marlins, Cabrera’s Cubs tenure has seen him give up a career-worst 12.8% barrel rate and 91.9 mph average exit velocity. Those fall in the eighth and fifth percentiles, respectively.
- Per Ballpark Pal, today’s game at Rate Field in Chicago contains an environment that’s 5% more conducive to hitting home runs.
Add Munetaka Murakami to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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With all 30 MLB teams set to be active on Friday, there’s ample star power to choose from when it comes to home run picks. Could the proverbial cream of the crop like Schwarber, Judge, and Murakami rise to the top heading into the weekend?
Don’t wait until first pitch today — make your MLB home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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