Toledo vs. Michigan State Prediction, Spread, NCAA Picks for Friday September 4

The Toledo Rockets vs. Michigan State Spartans game is set to kick off at 8:00 p.m. ET on Friday, September 4, at Spartan Stadium on FS1. The Spartans enter as 10.5-point favorites on the spread, via PrizePicks. 

Michigan State starts the Pat Fitzgerald era as the Spartans try to erase the taste of a 4-8 campaign last season. Toledo begins life after head coach Jason Candle, who departed to UConn after 10 successful seasons. The Rockets have lost two of their last three season openers on the road, as they face the Spartans for the first time since 1925.

Below, we'll break down our Toledo vs. Michigan State prediction and picks for Friday's college football game, including the winner, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Toledo vs. Michigan State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1

The Spartans aren’t expected to be a factor atop the loaded Big Ten, but they're bringing in Fitzgerald after a 17-year stint at Northwestern. MSU won its first three games of 2025, all against non-conference opponents.

However, Sparty dropped their first eight conference games before capturing the finale against Maryland. MSU looks to end a four-year stretch of losing records and seek its first bowl appearance since 2021.

Toledo fell short to Louisville in the Boca Raton Bowl, 27-22, but managed a cover as 12.5-point underdogs. The Rockets soared to five consecutive point spread wins to close last season, while allowing 2 touchdowns in their final five MAC contests.

Three of Toledo’s five losses came to non-conference opponents, including a 21-point defeat at Washington State. The Rockets went 0-2 against Power 5 teams, with both setbacks coming by single digits.

Michigan State did most of its point spread damage as an underdog, compiling five covers as a 12.5-point dog or higher. The Spartans dropped a pair of 3-point decisions at Iowa and Minnesota while suffering only one loss outright as a favorite in a 38-13 home blowout to UCLA.

The Rockets are taking on their first Big Ten opponent since 2023, when they dropped the season opener at Illinois 30-28 as 9-point underdogs. It will be a tall task for Toledo, which lost its starting QB, top two RBs, top three WRs, and top five tacklers from last season’s squad.

Toledo vs. Michigan State Spread, Over/Under – Friday, September 4

The Spartans enter Friday's game with a 1.23x payout to win against the Rockets, sitting as 10.5-point favorites on the spread, via PrizePicks.

Here are the full payouts for the Toledo vs. Michigan State game on PrizePicks.

Make your Toledo vs. Michigan State prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Toledo vs. Michigan State Prediction Against the Spread for NCAAF Week 1

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Toledo vs. Michigan State prediction on the spread for Friday, September 4.

• These teams were on different ends of the spectrum in EPA per play, as Toledo sat seventh, while Michigan State ranked 106th, via Game On Paper.
• Before their victory over Maryland, the Spartans failed to cover their first four opportunities as a favorite in 2025.
• The Rockets posted a 10-3 against the spread mark last season, including a pair of covers in losses as an underdog.
• Toledo’s defense ranked third in EPA/Pass and 14th in EPA/Rush, while owning the sixth-highest defense success rate.
• The Spartans put together a 1-8 ATS record the last two seasons as a home favorite.
• MSU looks to improve on the defensive side, ranking 115th in both Net EPA/Play and third/fourth down success rate.
• Spartans QB Alessio Milivojevic started the final four games of last season, throwing for at least 255 yards three times. 
• Milivojevic’s passing projection is listed at 235.5 yards, but Central Michigan’s Joe Labas was the lone QB to bust this number against Toledo in 2025. 

Lock in your Toledo vs. Michigan State prediction on PrizePicks now!

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Make Toledo vs. Michigan State Picks on PrizePicks

The Spartans start fresh with Fitzgerald running the show, who has plenty of experience inside the Big Ten. Can MSU start strong against a Toledo squad also showcasing a new head coach?

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