Thunder vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks: SGA, Chet Holmgren & the OKC Juggernaut

Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and C Chet Holmgren celebrate during an NBA game.
AP Photo/Nate Billings

Tonight, the Oklahoma City Thunder (20-1) face the Golden State Warriors (11-10) at Chase Center. The game tips off at 11:00 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.

Oklahoma City comes in atop the Western Conference after a historic 20–1 start, becoming just the fourth team ever to win at least 20 of its first 21 games. The Thunder will put a 12-game winning streak on the line as they travel to San Francisco to face a Golden State team that’s 2–3 over its last five.

Below, we’ll break down our Thunder vs. Warriors prediction and player picks for tonight’s matchup, including top picks on PrizePicks real-money NBA game for G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and C Chet Holmgren.

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Thunder vs. Warriors Prediction, Preview

Here’s how the Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors stack up heading into tonight’s matchup.

Thunder Preview vs. Warriors

  • The Oklahoma City Thunder look to extend their dominant streak after winning their 12th consecutive game against the Denver Nuggets on Sunday night.​
  • Oklahoma City comes in with an impressive 20–1 record and ranks first in the Western Conference, with 122.2 PPG on 48.7 percent shooting.​
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on pace to be the 14th player to win back-to-back MVP awards, averaging 32.5 PPG, and will face a Warriors defense that has yet to slow him down in his career.​
  • The Thunder will face injury challenges with F Alex Caruso, F Luguentz Dort, and C Isaiah Hartenstein all ruled out for tonight’s matchup.​

Warriors Preview vs. Thunder

  • The Golden State Warriors got back on track after defeating the New Orleans Pelicans 104-96 on Saturday night.​
  • Golden State sits eighth in the Western Conference at 11-10 and ranks 23rd in offensive efficiency at 1.103.​
  • The Warriors will be without PG Stephen Curry, who remains sidelined with a left quadriceps contusion and muscle strain suffered against Houston on November 26. ​
  • Additionally, SF Jimmy Butler III is questionable with a left gluteal contusion, while F Trayce Jackson-Davis is questionable with a right knee injury. G De'Anthony Melton, C Al Horford, and F Alex Toohey are all expected to remain out tonight.

The Warriors enter this matchup as 11.5-point underdogs, returning a 4.76x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.

The Thunder are road favorites with a 1.16x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

  • Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -11.5
  • Total: 221.5
  • Game Winner Payout: Thunder 1.16x | Warriors 4.76x

Thunder vs. Warriors Prediction, NBA Picks

Below are three top Thunder vs. Warriors NBA DFS picks for Tuesday’s matchup. Use PrizePicks' real-money NBA game and win real money if your picks are right.

Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Warriors Projection: 30.5 Points

  • SGA is on an absolute tear, averaging over 30 PPG in November and scoring 30-plus in 12 of 15 contests
  • Gilgeous-Alexander's 32.5 PPG ranks second in the NBA (only behind Luka Doncic), and his 32.3% usage rate underscores his central role in Oklahoma City’s offense.
  • The Thunder guard is riding a 93-game streak with at least 20 points, the second-longest in NBA history.​
  • The Warriors have struggled to contain opposing point guards, allowing 26.6 PPG, eighth-most in the league.

Thunder C Chet Holmgren vs. Warriors Projection: 27.5 PRA

  • Holmgren has exceeded 27.5 PRA in four of his five career games against Golden State, averaging a massive 35.6 PRA in those matchups.​
  • In his most recent game vs. the Warriors, Holmgren posted 23 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 assists (36 PRA) while shooting a perfect 9-for-9 from the field.​
  • The Warriors allow 23.8 points, 15.4 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game to opposing centers.​
  • Holmgren's season PRA average sits at 27.9, and he has surpassed 27.5 PRA in back-to-back games heading into tonight’s matchup.​

Warriors SF Jimmy Butler vs. Thunder Projection: 20.5 Points

  • Butler is averaging 20.2 PPG and comes into tonight scoring 21-plus in back-to-back outings.
  • He has topped 20 points in three of his last five, including a 33-point night against Orlando.
  • The former Marquette star is taking 13.6 shots per game over that span and could shoulder more of the offense with Curry sidelined.
  • Oklahoma City is allowing 20.7 points per game to opposing small forwards, and Butler has been efficient, shooting 52.9% from the field over his last five.
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Thunder vs. Warriors on PrizePicks

Thunder-Warriors showdown offers plenty of options to make your NBA picks on PrizePicks. Just predict More or Less on NBA player projections and win real money if your picks are right

Follow Playbook for more NBA DFS picks and analysis all the way through the season.

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about the author

Garrett Kerman is a seasoned sports writer who has written for numerous outlets over the years from ClutchPoints, to Ballislife, to OutKick Sports. He also goes by the name The Fight Analyst where he has been a prominent voice in combat sports. However, he still maintains his voice in all sports like NFL, NBA, and MLB bringing viewers the best in coverage and analysis.

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