The Oklahoma City Thunder (64-16) vs. Denver Nuggets (52-28) is set to tip off at 9:00 p.m. ET on Friday, April 10, with the Nuggets entering as 11.5-point favorites on the spread, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
The Thunder have locked up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, while the Nuggets are holding onto the No. 3 seed by one game. Can Nuggets C Nikola Jokic and his team get a win vs. a Thunder team sitting most of its rotation?
Below, we'll break down our Thunder vs. Nuggets prediction and picks for Friday's NBA game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your picks for Thunder vs. Nuggets on PrizePicks now.
{{nba_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Friday, April 10
For the second season in a row, the Thunder have clinched the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and boast the best regular-season record.
Defensively, no one is better than OKC, ranking first in adjusted defensive rating (106.2), according to Dunks & Threes, plus it allows the second-fewest points per game (107.3).
The Thunder's balanced approach could help them become the first team to win back-to-back championships since the Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2018; they are one of three teams in the NBA to rank in the top seven in both offensive and defensive ratings, per NBA.com. However, this will not be the team we see on the court, as they are sitting nine players, including G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, C Chet Holmgren, and G Jalen Williams.
The Nuggets have one of the Association's best offenses, leading the league with 121.8 points per game and a 120.9 adjusted offensive rating. Health has been an issue most of the season, but it's finally headed in the right direction. They have won 10 straight games, averaging an astonishing 130.9 points during that span.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Spread, Over/Under – Friday, April 10
The Nuggets enter Friday’s game as 11.5-point home favorites against the Thunder, returning a 1.16x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Thunder vs. Nuggets game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Denver Nuggets -11.5 (1.78x payout)
- Over/Under: 231.5 (1.81x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Thunder - 4.76x | Nuggets - 1.16x
Play the Thunder vs. Nuggets spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Injury Report for Friday, April 10
Let’s dive into the full Thunder vs. Nuggets injury report for Friday via NBA.com.
Thunder Injury Report
- F Jaylin Williams (Achilles) – OUT
- C Isaiah Hartenstein (calf) – OUT
- G Isaiah Joe (knee) – OUT
- G Alex Caruso (rest) – OUT
- G Ajay Mitchell (ankle) – OUT
- G Cason Wallace (toe) – OUT
- G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (oblique) – OUT
- G Jalen Williams (hamstring) – OUT
- C Chet Holmgren (back) – OUT
Nuggets Injury Report
- F Spencer Jones (hamstring) – OUT
- F Peyton Watson (hamstring) – OUT
- C Nikola Jokic (wrist) – Questionable
- G Jamal Murray (shoulder) – Questionable
- F Aaron Gordon (hamstring) – Questionable
- G Christian Braun (ankle) – Questionable
- F Cameron Johnson (ankle) – Questionable
Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction on Spread – 4/10/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Thunder vs. Nuggets prediction on the spread for Friday, April 10.
Lock in your Thunder vs. Nuggets prediction on PrizePicks before the line moves.
- The Nuggets have covered the spread in two of their three games vs. the Thunder this season.
- Denver gets more shots vs. the Thunder than its season average, with 93.3 per game over three meetings, compared to 87.5 for the season.
- That's also much higher than the Thunder allowing 88.2 field goal attempts per game for the season.
- One of OKC’s weaknesses is defending the 3-point line, ranking 23rd by allowing 36.5% from beyond the arc.
- The Nuggets’ 3-point shooting is one of their best attributes, shooting 41.7% on triples (second), and they rank third with 16.6 3-pointers made per game.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks – 4/10/26
Here are the top Thunder vs. Nuggets picks to target on PrizePicks for Friday, April 10. Today’s NBA picks for PrizePicks include Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic.
Nuggets G Jamal Murray vs. Thunder Projection: 22.5 Points
- Murray has scored more than 22 points in four of his last seven games.
- The guard from Kentucky has been playing some of his best basketball recently, averaging 29.2 points over his last five games, well above his season-long 25.4 PPG average.
- As one of the offensive leaders, the 10-year veteran’s 36.0% on-ball rate ranks in the 99th percentile, per databallr.
- The Canadian native’s 39.7 minutes per game vs. the Thunder is the second-most against any opponent across the NBA.
Add Jamal Murray to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
{{nba_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Nuggets C Nikola Jokic vs. Thunder Projection: 47 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Jokic has exceeded his PRA projection in 12 of his last 21 games.
- Do not be surprised if the Joker gets a triple-double, as he leads the league with 34 this season and has done so in two of three games vs. the Thunder.
- The Thunder rank 17th in rebounds allowed to centers per game (14.4) and 12th for assists (3.9).
- The Serbian who was drafted during a Taco Bell commercial is averaging 52.2 PRA over his last five games, which is better than his 51.5 PRA average for the season.
Add Nikola Jokic to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Thunder vs. Nuggets Picks on PrizePicks
This is a vital game for the Nuggets, as they could secure the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. Proven by nine players sitting out, this game has no relevance for the Thunder.
Don’t wait until lock — make your Thunder vs. Nuggets picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily NBA predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 NBA Finals.
