We’re in for a fantastic matchup tonight when the Oklahoma City Thunder (48-15) roll into Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Knicks (40-22). Tip-off for Wednesday is set for 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
This is the first meeting of the season between these two title contenders. OKC won (and covered) in both meetings last year, but could tonight's outing be a different story?
Below, we’ll break down our Thunder vs. Knicks prediction and Wednesday NBA picks for PrizePicks. Use PrizePicks NBA to make picks on player projections and win real money if you’re right.
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Thunder vs. Knicks Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
It seems nothing can slow down this OKC freight train right now. Their best player and reigning MVP G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has missed 12 games this year, while their second-best player, F-G Jalen Williams, has missed 37. All the Thunder have done anyway is bulldoze their way to the league’s best record.
It’s no surprise that the Thunder are the favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks to win back-to-back NBA championships. “Yes” on them to hoist this year’s Larry O’Brien Trophy is currently returning a 2.32x payout.
The Knicks are playing some of their best basketball of the season, though. They've won seven of their last 10 games and are on a three-game winning streak, including a dominant win at home against an uber-talented San Antonio Spurs team.
It has been New York's defense that has carried it throughout this stretch. Over their last 10 games, the Knicks have the best defensive rating in the NBA (104.4) and the second-best overall net rating (+12.4).
Thunder vs. Knicks Spread, Over/Under
The Thunder enter Wednesday’s game as 3.5-point road favorites, returning a 1.53x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Knicks are home underdogs with a 2.38x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 34 states.
- Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 (1.75x payout)
- Over/Under: 221.5 (1.88x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Thunder 1.53x | Knicks 2.38x
Team Picks payouts are live as of publishing and are subject to change.
Thunder vs. Knicks Prediction on Spread
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Thunder vs. Knicks prediction on the spread for Wednesday, March 4, on PrizePicks.
- The Knicks are 20-11-0 (64.5%) against the spread (ATS) at home, the best covering percentage in the NBA.
- Oklahoma City is 2-8-0 (20%) ATS on the second night of a back-to-back, the league's second-worst record.
- Over their last 15 games, the Knicks have both a better offensive and defensive rating than the Thunder. Their net rating (+10.9) is 4.7 points better than the Thunder (+6.2) over that timespan.
- The biggest advantage for the Knicks tonight may come on the glass. New York has the fifth-best rebounding percentage in the league at 51.8% and is 17 spots ahead of the Thunder (49%) in this category.
Thunder vs. Knicks Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/4/26
Here are two of the top Thunder vs. Knicks to consider for Wednesday, March 4, on PrizePicks. Today’s NBA picks for PrizePicks are headlined by PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and C Karl-Anthony Towns.
Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Knicks Projection: 41.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- SGA is averaging 42.6 points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) per game this year.
- He had more than this projection in both outings vs. New York last season. In those two games, he went from 39-3-2 (44 PRA) and 33-4-7 (44 PRA).
- The Knicks’ defense gives up 23.5 free-throw attempts per game (16th). That is a positive for Gilgeous-Alexander, who is one of the best in the league at getting to the line, averaging 9.2 attempts while shooting 89.3% from the stripe.
- Gilgeous-Alexander has been a beast on Wednesdays this year, averaging 35.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 6.6 assists (47.5 PRA) on hump day. For the last three years, he has averaged his highest PPG on Wednesdays.
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Knicks C Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Thunder Projection: 29.5 Pts + Reb
- KAT is posting 31.6 points + rebounds (PR) per game.
- At home, that number increases to 33.1 points and boards, as he produces 1 more point and 0.5 more boards at Madison Square Garden.
- Towns had more than this projection in both games vs. OKC last year, where he went for 17-22 (39 PR) and 22-10 (32 PR).
- The Thunder defense allows opponents to shoot the sixth-most 3-pointers per game (38.8) at the sixth-highest clip (36.7%). Towns, one of the best big-man shooters ever, is a career 39.8% shooter from deep.
- OKC gives up 45.5 rebounds per game (24th).
Make Thunder vs. Knicks Picks on PrizePicks
There's an awesome slate of NBA basketball today, with perhaps the most exciting of the bunch being this battle in the basketball Mecca. However, Thunder vs. Knicks picks aren’t the only way hoops fans can get in on the daily NBA action.
You can make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 34 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued NBA predictions, picks, and news.
