#1 Texas vs. Oklahoma Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Saturday, October 10

Week 6 of the 2026 college football season brings one of the year's biggest rivalry games as the #1 Texas Longhorns take on the Oklahoma Sooners in the annual Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl.

Texas enters Saturday's matchup undefeated at 4-0 after defeating Tennessee 20-17 on the road last week. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is 2-2 after suffering a 41-13 loss to Georgia, leaving the Sooners searching for answers on the offensive side of the ball.

Can QB Arch Manning and the Longhorns extend their winning streak and stay atop the college football rankings, or will QB John Mateer and the Sooners put together a statement performance to pull off the upset in Dallas?

Texas enters the 3:30 p.m. matchup on ABC as a 7.5-point favorite, with the total set at 39.5 points.

Below, we'll break down our Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction and picks for Saturday's Week 6 college football game, including the spread, over/under, and key player projections for PrizePicks.

Make your Texas vs. Oklahoma picks on PrizePicks now!

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#1 Texas vs. Oklahoma Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, October 10

Texas enters Saturday's game as a 7.5-point favorite against Oklahoma, returning a 1.28x payout if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for Texas vs. Oklahoma on PrizePicks.

Make your Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks.

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Texas has been the more consistent team overall, ranking fifth nationally in College Football Ratings' overall team rating (OU is 15th) and ninth in adjusted offensive rating. The Longhorns also sit first nationally in adjusted defensive rating, allowing just 13.3 points per game through four contests.

Oklahoma's defense is right up there, if not better than Ohio State’s, and may be the toughest obstacle Texas has faced this season. According to College Football Ratings, the Sooners rank fourth in adjusted defensive rating and have allowed just 16.0 PPG.

That defense has been particularly effective against the run, holding opponents to just 3.2 yards per carry.

The advanced numbers are even more impressive. The Sooners' defense ranks first nationally in both net EPA per play and net-adjusted EPA per play at +0.25 and +0.31, respectively.

Oklahoma's biggest concern is its offense. The Sooners are averaging just 22.0 PPG and rank 128th in offensive EPA per play. Their rushing attack has been especially ineffective, producing a minuscule 2.9 YPC.

This game will be played on neutral ground at the Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas, Texas. Although the game is technically in Texas, the stadium sits about halfway between Norman and Austin so perhaps there's a closer-to-neutral crowd with a slight Texas lean.

Both teams are 1-3-0 against the spread (ATS) this season.

Texas vs. Oklahoma Prediction on Spread – 10/10/26

Here are the key stats and predictions behind our Texas vs. Oklahoma spread prediction for Saturday, October 10.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from College Football Ratings, PFF, or Game on Paper.

• Texas has the better overall offensive profile, but the gap isn't enormous. The Longhorns rank 84th nationally in raw offensive EPA per play at 0.11, compared with Oklahoma at 128th at -0.045.
• On top of being first in the nation in EPA/play and being top-five in success rate on defense, OU leads the country in pressure rate. That'll be key to disrupting this Texas offensive line, which has struggled at times (Manning took 6 sacks against the Volunteers' defense).
• Oklahoma allows opponents to convert on just 23.1% of third downs (fourth). Texas allows opponents to convert 39.1% of third downs (44th).
• The Longhorns convert 65.2% of their red-zone possessions into TDs, ranking 55th nationally, but Oklahoma allows a TD on just 30.8% of opponent red-zone possessions (fifth).
• The Sooners rank 58th nationally in passing EPA per play at +0.293, while Texas ranks 22nd in defensive EPA/dropback at -0.033. Mateer's thrown for 883 yards and 8 TDs but has also tossed 4 INTs. If he can protect the ball, this game may be close.
• The Longhorns have struggled to create chunk plays despite their undefeated record, ranking 112th in offensive explosiveness.
• These teams are neck and neck in net yards per play, with Texas at 5.29 on offense compared to 4.23 allowed. OU's marks are 5.20 and 4.25, respectively.
• Many will see Texas’ perfect record and assume it's the significantly better team, the Longhorns could easily be 2-2. It took a miracle for them to come back against Ohio State, and they probably should have lost to the Vols and their young QB, who played terribly.

Lock in your Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction on PrizePicks before Saturday's game.

Texas vs. Oklahoma Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/10/26

Here are two Texas vs. Oklahoma player projections to consider for Saturday's Red River Rivalry. Today's college football picks for PrizePicks include Texas QB Arch Manning and Oklahoma QB John Mateer.

Texas QB Arch Manning vs. Oklahoma: 210.5 Pass Yards

• Manning has averaged 216.0 passing yards per game but now faces a defense that's been significantly better than most of the opponents Texas has played.
• The Sooners have allowed opponents to succeed on just 30.9% of offensive plays, making it hard to sustain drives and accrue yardage.
• Oklahoma's pass defense is particularly strong, ranking fourth nationally in defensive passing EPA per play at -0.162. The Sooners also sit seventh nationally in passing success rate allowed.
• The Longhorns have a reason to lean on their ground game, even though Oklahoma has been difficult to run against. Texas has a 52.8% run rate, and distributing carries among its RBs could limit Manning's passing volume vs. a chaotic defense.

Add Arch Manning + Texas to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Oklahoma QB John Mateer vs. Texas: 187.5 Pass Yards

• Texas ranks third nationally in adjusted defensive EPA per play at -0.101 and 11th in defensive success rate at 36.5%. 
• The Longhorns have also been excellent at limiting passing efficiency, allowing opponents to complete successful passing plays at just a 35.9% clip.
• If the Sooners cannot establish the run with their struggling ground attack, Texas can focus more attention on Mateer and the passing game.
• Head coach Brett Venables admitted he considered a QB change against Georgia because of Mateer’s poor play and turnover issues. If he struggles again and that mindset holds, this projection might prove hard to reach.

Add John Mateer + Oklahoma to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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The Red River Rivalry takes center stage Saturday afternoon as the undefeated Texas Longhorns face the Oklahoma Sooners at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Will Manning lead Texas to another win over OU, or could the Sooners' defense pave the way to victory?

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Texas vs. Oklahoma picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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