A pair of No. 11 seeds in Texas and NC State hook up in Dayton on Tuesday night for the right to face No. 6 BYU on Thursday in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, tipping off at 9:15 p.m. ET on truTV.
The Wolfpack (20-13) dropped seven of their final nine games, capped by an 81-74 setback vs. Virginia in the ACC Tournament. The Longhorns (18-14) also stumbled to the finish line, losing five of their last six contests.
Let’s make a Texas vs. NC State prediction for Tuesday’s tussle at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
Make your CBB picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Texas vs. NC State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The Longhorns outlasted the Wolfpack, 102-97, in Hawaii on November 26. The game was tied at 64-64 with 10 minutes remaining before Texas outscored NC State, 38-33, the rest of the way.
November's non-conference matchup easily finished over the total of 161.5 points, while Texas covered as 1.5-point underdogs.
This result was in sharp contrast to last season’s slugfest in Raleigh, a 63-59 victory for Texas. In this season’s battle, they combined for 115 points just in the second half.
Texas vs. NC State Spread, Over/Under
The Wolfpack enter this matchup as a slight favorite with a 1.85x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Longhorns are underdogs with a 1.92x payout if they win, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: NC State -3.5
- Over/Under: 157.5
- Game Winner Payout: Texas 1.92x | NC State 1.85x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Texas vs. NC State Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/17/26
Here are some key stats to know before locking in your Texas vs. NC State prediction on the spread for Tuesday, March 17, on PrizePicks.
- Texas ranks 13th nationally in offensive efficiency and 61st in effective field goal percentage, per KenPom.
- In the last six games, the Longhorns' only victory was a 76-70 win over Texas A&M on February 28.
- The Wolfpack are 2-7 in the last nine outings, with a dub vs. North Carolina (82-58) and Pittsburgh (98-88).
- NC State started ACC play at 9-2 before a 1-6 finish. The Wolfpack defeated Pitt in the second round of the ACC Tournament but lost for the third time this season vs. Virginia in the quarterfinals.
- Opponents have knocked down at least 11 3-pointers in six consecutive games vs. NC State.
- Texas has totaled 10 treys or less in 11 consecutive games. The last time the Longhorns drilled more than 11 3-pointers was in a late January loss at Auburn.
- The Wolfpack won their first six ACC road games but closed 1-4 in their final five away from Raleigh.
- The Longhorns scored at least 75 points in 14 of 16 games before being held to 66 points in an SEC Tournament loss to Ole Miss.
- Texas is playing in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive season, and it lost vs. Xavier, 86-80, in 2025's quick postseason exit.
Texas vs. NC State Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/17/26
Here are three top Texas vs. NC State CBB picks to target on Tuesday. Key PrizePicks player projections are headlined by three players: Texas G Dailyn Swain, NC State G Quadir Copeland, and Longhorns G Jordan Pope.
Texas G Dailyn Swain vs. NC State Projection: 19 Points
- The Xavier transfer averages a career-high 17.8 points per game (PPG).
- The junior was limited to 14 points in the December win over NC State, going 4-of-9 from the floor (44.4%).
- Swain converted five or fewer field goals in four straight games. He scored 22 points in the SEC Tournament loss to Ole Miss, but 13 points came from the free throw line.
- In nine of the last 14 games, Swain topped the 20-point mark, but only three of those performances came against NCAA Tournament teams.
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NC State G Quadir Copeland vs. Texas Projection: 15.5 Points
- The senior is posting double-digit scoring for the first time in his career at 13.9 PPG.
- After scoring 24 points vs. Pitt in the second round of the ACC Tournament, he was held to only 9 points in the loss vs. Virginia.
- His top-scoring performance of the season came vs. Texas, with 28 points. He shot 10-of-14 from the floor (71.4%), marking his most field goals made of the season.
- In his last six games following a single-digit scoring output, Copeland bounced back with at least 16 points in four games.
Texas G Jordan Pope vs. NC State Projection: 18.5 Pts + Rebs
- Pope is averaging 13.3 PPG and 2.2 rebounds per game in his second season in Austin.
- In the previous head-to-head vs. the Wolfpack, Pope posted 28 points, hitting 7 3-pointers. But he did not pull down a single rebound.
- The senior topped this projection in five of the last seven games, highlighted by a 30-point, 6-rebound effort in an overtime loss to Oklahoma on March 7.
- In seven of the past nine outings, Pope knocked down at least 2 treys. NC State allows opponents to shoot 35.6% on 3-pointers (287th).
Make Texas vs. NC State Picks on PrizePicks
The Longhorns try to avoid another early exit in the NCAA Tournament, facing a struggling NC State squad. Who will escape Dayton with a win and advance to Thursday's matchup vs. BYU?
You can make your Texas vs. NC State picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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