The first five NFL Playoff games of Wild Card Weekend gave us an incredible start to the NFL Playoffs, with four games that came down to the last possession. The playoff magic continues Monday night as the 4-seeded Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) host the 5-seeded Houston Texans (12-5).
Of the remaining teams in the NFL Playoffs, the Steelers currently have the longest shot at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, returning a 22.22x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks. The Texans have the sixth-highest payout to win their first Super Bowl, returning a 10x payout on Team Picks.
Texans vs. Steelers kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday from Pittsburgh, live on ESPN on Monday Night Football.
Below, we’ll break down our Texans vs. Steelers spread pick for Monday Night Wild Card Football on PrizePicks. Use PrizePicks Team Picks to make picks on spread, over/under, and winners to win real money if you’re right.
Texans vs. Steelers Over/Under, Spread for Monday Night Football
The Texans opened the week as 3-point favorites vs. the Steelers. Since then, they have moved to 2.5-point favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks.
As the current favorites, the Texans return a 1.61x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright. The home underdog Steelers return a 2.22x payout if they pull off the upset.
The total opened at 38.5 and has since dropped to 36.5 on PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Houston Texans -2.5 (1.72x payout)
- Over/Under: 36.5 (1.69x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Texans 1.61x | Steelers 2.22x
Team Picks payouts are live as of publishing and are subject to change.
Texans vs. Steelers Pick on Spread for Monday Night Football
Below, we’ll give you a Texans vs. Steelers pick on the spread on PrizePicks Team Picks for Monday Night Football. Use PrizePicks to make NFL picks, including on spreads, winners, and over/unders, and earn money if you’re right.
- Historically, it has been profitable to back Super Bowl-winning QBs when they are priced as underdogs. Since 2003, QBs who have been to the mountain top are 64-25-2 (72%) as an underdog in the playoffs.
- Under head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 23-5 straight up (SU) and 16-12 against the spread (ATS) on MNF.
- Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers has also been historically good on MNF at home, going 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS.
- A lot has been made of the Texans' defense ranking second in the league in points per game allowed (17.4).
- However, when Rodgers has faced a defense allowing 18 PPG or less in December or later, he is 8-3 SU and 9-1-1 ATS.
- The biggest mismatch in this game is the Steelers' DL vs the Texans' OL. The Texans' offensive line ranks 30th in pass block win rate and 21st in QB hurries given up.
- The Steelers’ DL ranks fourth in pass rush win rate and 12th in sacks per pass attempt. They are also completely healthy, with all three edge rushers — TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Nick Herbig — set tp play. All three players have a sack score above 6.5.
- Since moving Jalen Ramsey to safety in Week 9, the Steelers lead the league in generating pressure at a whopping 40%.
- When faced with pressure, QB CJ Stroud has completed just 49.6% (23rd) of his passes for 6.0 yards per attempt (25th).
- The Texans have a ferocious pass rush of their own in EDGE Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. However, this pass rush can be mitigated by Rodgers' elite release time.
- Among qualified QBs, Rodgers ranks first in time-to-throw at 2.59 seconds, per Next Gen Stats.
- The Steelers are converting red-zone trips into touchdowns at the 11th-best rate in the league (58.8%). Meanwhile, the Texans have the third-worst red-zone offense in the NFL, scoring a TD onjust 46.3% of drives.
- The same goes for the defense; the Steelers prevent touchdowns on 50.9% on red-zone trips, ranking seventh, while the Texans rank 14th (56.8%).
- The Texans' pass block win rate ranks 30th (56%), while the run block win rate ranks dead last (68%) in the NFL.
Make Monday Night Football Picks on PrizePicks
On Monday Night Football tonight, Texans vs. Steelers wraps up what has been an absolute thriller of a weekend of Wild Card Round playoff football.
The Steelers will be looking to start the long march towards winning their seventh Lombardi trophy, which would be the most in NFL history. The Texans, meanwhile, will hope to ride their elite defense to their first Super Bowl appearance as a franchise.
If you’re a fan of defense, this will be the game for you, as it’s the lowest over/under number in an NFL playoff game since the 2016-17.
In the Texans vs. Steelers game on Monday, you can make picks on the winner, spread, and over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks. Just pick your side, lock in your pick, and earn money if you're right — now in 30 states, including Texas and California.
Keep it locked in here with PrizePicks and the Playbook for continued NFL picks, predictions, and news all season long.
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