The Houston Texans seek their first AFC Championship appearance in the 24-year history of the franchise, heading back to the northeast to battle the AFC East champion New England Patriots.
Both the Texans and Patriots advanced to the Divisional Round by holding their opponents out of the end zone on Wild Card Weekend. The Pats silenced the Chargers in a 16-3 victory, while the Texans pulled away from the Steelers, 30-6.
Let’s look at a Texans vs. Patriots spread prediction for Sunday’s AFC Divisional Round playoff tilt at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, kicking off at 3:00 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC. Use PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to make predictions on the NFL playoffs.
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Texans vs. Patriots Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Houston and New England last squared off in Week 6 of the 2024 campaign. The Texans routed the Patriots at Gillette, 41-21, to easily cover as 6.5-point favorites.
Texans vs. Patriots Over/Under, Spread
The Patriots enter this matchup as 3.5-point favorites, returning a 1.51x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Texans are road underdogs with a 2.38x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: New England Patriots -3.5
- Over/Under: 41.5
- Game Winner Payout: Texans 2.38x | Patriots 1.51x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Texans vs. Patriots Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you set for this afternoon, including insights on our Texans vs. Patriots prediction.
- The Texans limited their last six opponents on the road to fewer than 16 points.
- During Houston’s 10-game winning streak, four victories came as an underdog.
- New England put together a 12-5 against-the-spread ledger during the regular season. The Pats covered as 3.5-point favorites in their Wild Card win over the Chargers.
- Texans WR Nico Collins is ruled OUT due to a concussion suffered in Monday’s win at Pittsburgh. The Texans won both prior 2025 games without their leading receiver against the 49ers (26-15) and Colts (38-30).
- Houston posted a 3-1 record against QBs ranked in the top 8 of adjusted EPA per play, beating Josh Allen (Bills), Daniel Jones (Colts), and Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs). They lost to Matthew Stafford (Rams); Patriots QB Drake Maye led the sport in adjusted EPA per play at 0.322.
- Of the top 10 QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade with 8+ games played, the Patriots faced one of them, splitting two matchups with Allen.
- The Texans led the NFL in yards allowed per game at 277.2 and ranked sixth in average passing yards given up at 183.5. The Patriots compiled a 4-1 record against top-five passing defenses.
- Houston scored 20 or fewer points in five of its first eight games. They've since topped the 20-point mark nine times during their 10-game hot streak.
- The Texans are 0-6 in franchise history in the Divisional Round, with two losses coming at New England (2012 and 2016).
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Make Texans vs. Patriots Picks on PrizePicks
An AFC Championship berth is on the line in Foxborough as the Texans try to knock off the Patriots on Sunday. There’s never been a better time to add to the excitement of every NFL moment than with PrizePicks.
You can make Texans vs. Patriots picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 30 states.
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