Following a 30-6 road rout of the Steelers in the Wild Card Round, the Houston Texans (13-5) visit the New England Patriots (15-3) in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.
Houston could be without its WR1, as WR Nico Collins suffered a concussion in Pittsburgh. If Collins misses the game, what might we expect for Sunday’s 3:00 p.m. ET kickoff in Gillette Stadium?
Let’s look at the latest Nico Collins injury update and how it could impact player projections on PrizePicks.
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Nico Collins Injury Update: Will Texans WR Play in Divisional Round Game vs. Patriots?
As of Thursday evening, the Texans completed two of three practices before Sunday’s game, and Collins was absent from both.
Adam Schefter of ESPN wrote, “I don’t expect him to play. I’d be shocked.”
The University of Michigan product led the Texans with 120 targets and 1,117 receiving yards in the regular season. According to PlayerProfiler, the two-time Pro Bowler posted a 24.6% target share (16th), 1,529 air yards (ninth), and 18 red zone targets (seventh). Collins' 55.9% snap share in his injury-riddled Wild Card outing stood in sharp contrast to his regular season total of 76.9%.
His absence would be a blow to the Texans and their QB, C.J. Stroud and an offense that's rolling into Week 2 of the NFL playoffs.
As of this writing, PrizePicks is not offering projections for Collins. So if Collins is sidelined, which Texans pass-catcher could step up?
Texans’ Fantasy Football Outlook
In Week 8 — Collins’ sole absence of the regular season — Stroud had one of his best games of the year, completing 30-of-39 passing attempts for 318 passing yards and 2 passing TDs.
Coincidence? We might find out Sunday.
That week, with ostensible WR2 Christian Kirk on the shelf, Texans WRs Jayden Higgins (8), Jaylin Noel (6), and Xavier Hutchinson (6) led the team in targets. Hutchinson (69) and Noel (63) posted the most receiving yards, with each producing at least one 30-yard reception.
Kirk, however, was the star of the Wild Card round, racking up 9 targets, 8 receptions, and a career-high 144 receiving yards.
New England boasts a strong pass defense that allows only 6.6 yards per passing attempt (eighth) and -0.06 expected points added (EPA) per dropback (11th), via SumerSports.
Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez is in concussion protocol himself, but was a full participant at Thursday’s practice. The Pro Bowler is capable of erasing perimeter receivers, as he comes off back-to-back games with PFF coverage grades topping 78.0.
According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Pats run man coverage at the ninth-highest rate in the league. That plays into Kirk’s hands, as he sports 2.14 yards per route run against man compared to 0.84 when facing zone.
After his Wild Card explosion, Kirk could be a sneaky-good value, especially if he equals or surpasses his 69.8% slot snap share.
PrizePicks projects Kirk for 6.5 receiving targets and 37.5 receiving yards.
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Make Texans vs. Patriots Picks on PrizePicks
After missing back-to-back practices, Collins looks like he'll miss the Divisional Round. Save for Kirk, Houston has an inexperienced receiving corps, but as the veteran journeyman proved last week, a 100+ yard outing is possible.
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