The first round of the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament rolls on this Friday, and a No. 15 vs. No. 2 seed bout populates part of the early slate. At 2:50 p.m. ET on CBS, the Tennessee State Tigers take on the Iowa State Cyclones.
Backed by an impressive Big 12 schedule and plenty of statement games, Iowa State is a heavy 23.5-point favorite. Can Tennessee State tap into one of March’s best themes and play spoiler?
Below, we’ll break down our Tennessee State vs. Iowa State prediction on spread for Friday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Tennessee State vs. Iowa State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
After some middling seasons to cap off his tenure, head coach Brian Collins stepped down and made way for the Nolan Smith era to be ushered in. Tennessee State responded tremendously to the switch, winning 23 games and making it back to the tourney for the first time since 1994.
The Tigers boast a 15-5 conference record, their most wins ever in the Ohio Valley Conference. TSU has ripped off six straight victories, heading into Friday with some momentum.
Iowa State, meanwhile, continued chugging along under head coach T.J. Otzelberger. The program’s 27-7 record marks a two-win improvement over last season, even with one fewer win in Big 12 play (12 compared to 13).
Since getting out to a 21-2 start, however, the Cyclones are just 6-5 in their last 11 games. That includes a narrow 82-80 loss to top-seeded Arizona in the conference tournament a week ago.
Tennessee State and Iowa State have met four times dating back to 1949. The Cyclones own a commanding 4-0 series lead, including an average margin of victory of 13.3 points.
Tennessee State vs. Iowa State Spread, Over/Under
Tennessee State enters Friday’s game as 23.5-point underdogs, returning a 16.66x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Iowa State is a favorite with a 1.01x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones -23.5 (1.72x payout)
- Over/Under: 148.5 (2x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Tigers 16.66x | Cyclones 1.01x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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Tennessee State vs. Iowa State Prediction on Spread – 3/20/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Tennessee State vs. Iowa State prediction on spread for Friday, March 20 on PrizePicks.
- As a favorite this season, Iowa State is 18-12-1 against the spread. When serving as an underdog, Tennessee State is 8-3 ATS.
- According to KenPom, the Cyclones are a significantly better team and sit seventh nationally with a +32.32 net rating. The Tigers are 187th at -1.84.
- These two defenses seem miles apart. Via Bart Torvik, Iowa State sits sixth in the country with a 92.8 adjusted defensive efficiency. Tennessee State is 236th at 111.8.
- TSU ranks 317th with a 41.6% free throw rate on defense, which could lead to easy scoring opportunities for ISU at the charity stripe.
- Keep an eye on whether this one gets out of hand early. Iowa State is the 23rd-ranked scoring offense in the first half (40.0 points), whereas Tennessee State is the 207th-ranked first-half defense (35.3 points).
- The Tigers could struggle away from the rim. Per CBB Shot Charts, they make 34.7% of their short-midrange tries, 37.3% of long-midrange looks, and can 33.6% of 3-pointers. ISU allows make rates of 33.2%, 34.4%, and 31.9%, respectively, on such shots.
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