The wait is finally over! The first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament begins with the No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs (22-11) vs. the No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (21-12), tipping off at 12:15 p.m. ET on CBS.
Both teams burst the bracket bubble with recent hot streaks, as TCU is 6-1 in its last seven games, while Ohio State boasts a 4-1 mark over its past five matchups. According to PrizePicks Team Picks, the Buckeyes are 2.5-point favorites for today’s NCAA Tournament battle.
Let’s make a TCU vs. Ohio State prediction on the spread for Thursday, March 19’s college basketball projections on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
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TCU vs. Ohio State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The two programs have not met since the 1969-70 season, with OSU’s 4-0 record leading the all-time series.
Both squads are 8-2 against the spread (ATS) over the last 10 games. Plus, the over is 4-1 for the Buckeyes’ previous five matchups. What can we expect for Thursday’s first-round picks?
TCU vs. Ohio State Spread, Over/Under
Ohio State is favored by 2.5 points with a 1.66x payout if it wins, per PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, TCU features a 2.22x payout with an outright win today.
- Spread: Ohio State Buckeyes -2.5
- Over/Under: 146.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: TCU 2.22x | Ohio State 1.66x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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TCU vs. Ohio State Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/19/26
According to Bart Torvik, TCU ranks 50th in efficiency, 82nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Ohio State, meanwhile, places 23rd, 14th, and 48th for the three categories.
In short, the Horned Frogs lean on their defense, while the Buckeyes feature a high-powered scoring attack. Which side could reign supreme for NCAA Tournament bracket predictions?
OSU shoots 36.0% on 3-pointers (84th percentile), and opponents post 7.5 made triples per game vs. TCU (60th percentile). The Frogs even give up a 51.0% effective field goal percentage (55th percentile), leading to questions around their defensive efficiency.
TCU tends to lean on creating chaos, proven by 13.8 forced turnovers per game (92nd percentile). This could be a tough matchup for the Frogs, though, with the Buckeyes totaling only 10.4 turnovers per contest (80th percentile).
Ohio State G Bruce Thornton (20.2 PPG), who is projected 19.5 points by PrizePicks, could feast with TCU G Jayden Pierre (2.10) and G Liutauras Lelevicius (1.02) carrying mediocre Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR), per EvanMiya.
Ultimately, the Buckeyes feel like the most efficient team, led by their 56.5% effective field goal percentage (95th percentile) while allowing a 50.3% mark (67th percentile). For context, the Horned Frogs sport a 50.9% effective field goal percentage on offense (45th percentile) and cede 51.0% on defense (55th percentile).
Make TCU vs. Ohio State Picks on PrizePicks
Who will be the first team to advance to the second round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Will Ohio State’s efficiency win out, or is TCU’s recent hot streak too much to overcome?
Make your TCU vs. Ohio State picks and NCAA Tournament predictions at PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right.
Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news all the way through the NCAA Tournament.
