Following the All-Star break, the NBA returns with a 10-game slate for Thursday. The Phoenix Suns (32-23) against San Antonio Spurs (38-17) feature one of the best matchups of tonight in a potential playoff preview.
Phoenix is 2-4 in its last six games, while San Antonio is on a six-game winning streak. Let’s break down tonight’s 8:30 p.m. ET matchup, make a Suns vs. Spurs prediction, and highlight player matchups for some PrizePicks projections.
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Suns vs. Spurs Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The Suns are 2-0 in head-to-head matchups against the Spurs this season, covering the point spread in both games. Phoenix is 6-4 outright and against the spread (ATS) over the previous 10 collisions with San Antonio.
Excluding head-to-head meetings, the Suns are 4-6 ATS in their last 10, compared to the Spurs’ 7-2-1 mark.
Suns vs. Spurs Spread, Over/Under
Phoenix is a notable 7.5-point underdog, featuring a 3.12x payout to win on PrizePicks Team Picks. The over is 5-0 in the Spurs’ last five games, and the over/under for this one is 228.5.
- Spread: San Antonio Spurs -7.5
- Over/Under: 228.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Suns 3.12x | Spurs 1.33x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Suns vs. Spurs Injury Report
Let’s have a look at the full Suns vs. Spurs injury report for Thursday’s matchup, via NBA.com.
Suns Injury Report
- F Dillon Brooks (league suspension): OUT
Spurs Injury Report
San Antonio features a healthy rotation for Thursday night.
Suns vs. Spurs Prediction on Over/Under
According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Spurs rank third in defensive rating. The unit allows only 46.5 points in the paint per game (seventh) and a 29.1% shot distribution around the rim (fourth), but it’s vulnerable from beyond the arc by giving up 13.2 made triples per game (15th) and a 36.2% 3-point percentage (20th).
Phoenix relies on the 3-ball, with a 44.7% distribution (seventh), per Dunks & Threes. Brooks’ 6.9 attempted treys per game tie for third on the team, and he's absent tonight.
However, the Suns as a team average 14.6 made triples (eighth) and 40.2 attempts from deep per game (sixth). SG Grayson Allen (9.1 3-point tries per game) and G Collin Gillespie (7.1) are two pieces capable of replacing Brooks’ production from beyond the arc.
The Spurs feature a balanced offense that is seventh in shot distribution around the rim and 16th for 3-point shots. Advanced stats have Phoenix 13th in shot distribution around the rim allowed and 10th in defensive rating. With that said, the Suns still cede a 55.7% 2-point percentage (23rd). San Antonio, meanwhile, converts 56.8% of its 2-point looks (fourth).
If each offense can play to its strength, the Spurs’ recent over trend could continue.
Suns vs. Spurs Picks for PrizePicks Today: 2/19/26
The backcourts could lead the charge tonight, as Suns G Grayson Allen and Spurs G Stephon Castle are two potential targets for picks on PrizePicks.
Suns G Grayson Allen vs. Spurs Projection: 13.5 Points
- Allen tops the Suns with 9.1 3-point shots per game, and he’s increased that total to 9.9 per appearance since January.
- Furthermore, the former Duke Blue Devil totaled 5.0 treys and 12.3 attempted triples per game over three February matchups.
- Shooting 39.7% from deep in his last six appearances, Allen could expose the Spurs’ perimeter defense.
- He’s projected for only 13.5 points, yet the 6’3” guard recorded 17.8 points per game (PPG) since January.
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Spurs G Stephon Castle vs. Suns Projection: 15.5 Points
- We mentioned the Suns’ suspect 2-point defense, and Castle shoots only 3.6 triples per game. The second-year guard takes 54.1% of his shots within 10 feet of the basket.
- He has a knack for getting to the line, attempting 5.8 free throws per game (second on the team). Phoenix ranks 28th in personal fouls per play and allows 24.5 free throw attempts per game (20th).
- Castle logged only 5.0 PPG in his last two games, but he played 16.5 minutes per contest due to injury. In his last five full appearances, he’s totaled 20.8 PPG.
Make Suns vs. Spurs Picks on PrizePicks
Will the over stay hot for the Spurs? Phoenix’s deep backcourt might be capable of replacing Brooks’ production, including Allen’s 3-point shooting. Castle’s ability to get into the paint could lead to success for San Antonio’s offense, too.
Make your Suns vs. Spurs picks at PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just choose players predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 34 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued NBA predictions, picks, and news.
