Tonight's Sunday Night Football features a marquee AFC East clash between the Patriots vs. Bills as WR Stefon Diggs travels to Highmark Stadium to face his former team on Sunday, Oct. 5 at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
After playing four years in Buffalo, Diggs faces the Bills for the first time since donning a New England uniform. Through four games with the Patriots, he’s posted 19 receptions for 213 yards. Now, the 11th-year veteran will look to spoil the night for his old fan base in a primetime return to Orchard Park.
After a season-best 101-yard performance against the Carolina Panthers in Week 4, we break down Stefon Diggs’ projections and top PrizePicks plays for Sunday Night Football vs. the Bills.
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Stefon Diggs Projections vs. Bills on Sunday Night Football
The Patriots didn’t just sign a big-name, four-time Pro Bowler for second-year QB Drake Maye — they wanted Diggs to change the entire identity of their passing game.
And after what he just showed in Week 4, the 31-year-old wideout looks rejuvenated. He and TE Hunter Henry spearhead the passing attack. Each hold a 19% target share, with Kayshon Boutte next up (12.9%).
Diggs is averaging 2.15 yards per route run, per PFF — his best since 2022 — ranking inside the NFL’s top-30.
Buffalo’s pass defense has been strong to begin the year, albeit against Spencer Rattler last week, and Tua Tagovailoa before that. Maye, who’s averaging 247.0 pass yards per game, will likely be forcing the issue a bit more against the Bills’ secondary that ranks first in the NFL in opponent passing yards per game (125.8).
The return of Diggs adds an emotional layer that can’t be quantified by stats. This isn’t just another game on the schedule — it’s Diggs walking back into his old house, looking to prove he’s still the same playmaker Bills fans once cheered for.
Stefon Diggs Projections vs. Bills Tonight
Projections are via the PrizePicks NFL board – pick players, predict More or Less on stats like the ones below, and win money when you're right.
- 2.5 Receptions
- 48.5 Receiving Yards
- 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs (Demon)
- 10.5 Fantasy Score
- 6.5 Targets
- More projections, picks available here on PrizePicks
Stefon Diggs Pick vs. Patriots: 48.5 Receiving Yards
- Diggs has cleared 50 yards in two of four games this season, including a 6-catch, 57-yard performance against the Raiders in Week 1.
- He owns a 19% target share in New England’s passing game,
- Buffalo’s defense has allowed 248.5 passing yards per game (22nd in the NFL), with two receivers already topping 100 yards against them.
- In his last meeting with Buffalo (Week 5, Oct. 6 2024), Diggs logged a team-high 6 catches on 8 targets for 82 yards for the Texans.
- Houston exited with a 23-20 victory last year.
Stefon Diggs Pick vs. Patriots: 2.5 Receptions
- Diggs has 3+ catches in every game so far, with 22 total targets over that span.
- Patriots QB Drake Maye has leaned heavily on Diggs and Henry as chain-movers
- Buffalo’s secondary has limited deep pass plays, 1st in the NFL with only 5 completions of 20+ yards.
- The Patriots’ WR room behind Diggs has been inconsistent, with Kayshon Boutte sitting as the only other wideout with double-digit catches this year.
- Demario Douglas, Mack Hollins and Kyle Williams are all still trying to carve out significant roles — leaving Diggs as the only reliable option in the rotation.
- Expect Maye to feed Diggs early on scripted drives — he has seen 5+ targets in three games so far.
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If Stefon Diggs delivers in this reunion game, the Patriots’ passing attack could keep pace with Josh Allen and the Bills under the primetime lights. His heavy volume and red-zone role make him one of the most reliable receivers on the board for SNF.
No matter how you see this Bills vs. Patriots showdown playing out, PrizePicks lets you cash in on your predictions. Choose More or Less on Diggs’ stat projections tonight — or stack him with picks on Drake Maye, Josh Allen, or James Cook.
Just pick More or Less on player stats and cash in if your picks are right. And lock in on Playbook for more NFL picks and predictions all season long.
