The Sunday Week 5 NFL wraps up with bitter division foes going head-to-head in primetime.
In a game featuring two of the league's most exciting QBs in New England's Drake Maye and the Bills' Josh Allen, the Patriots visit Buffalo on Sunday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET on NBC).
Below, we’ll dive into a Patriots vs. Bills SNF prediction and same-game NFL DFS picks to consider. Win real rewards when your PrizePicks NFL Week 5 picks are right!
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Patriots vs. Bills Prediction, Picks for SNF
- Sunday night marks meeting No. 132 between these squads. The Patriots lead the all-time series, 79-51-1.
- The post-Tom Brady era hasn’t been kind for the Pats. Since the G.O.A.T.’s departure in 2019, New England is just 3-8 against Buffalo.
- One of those triumphs didn’t carry much weight: In last season's Week 18 23-16 Patriots dub, we slogged through a parade of backup QBs in New England's Joe Milton and Mike White, and Buffalo's Mitchell Trubisky.
New England Patriots Preview
- The Patriots remained in the mix for a while after Brady left, posting a 25-25 record from 2020-2022. In the ensuing two seasons, however, they dropped to 8-26.
- Their 2-2 record marks the franchise’s best start in five campaigns.
- This is a balanced New England squad that ranks tenth in scoring on both sides of the ball.
- After a 5-turnover showing against the Steelers in Week 3, the Patriots responded in a major way by playing mistake-free football en route to a 42-13 blowout win over the Panthers.
Buffalo Bills Preview
- Wins over the Ravens, Jets, Dolphins and Saints have the Bills boasting the NFL’s third-best point differential (+43) as part of their perfect 4-0 start.
- Buffalo is 80-34 in 114 regular-season Allen starts. He’s both a floor and ceiling-raiser for the organization.
- The Bills are looking to parlay their stellar September into a seventh consecutive postseason. They trail only the Chiefs (10) for the longest active playoff streak.
- Offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s group is an absolute juggernaut, leading the league in EPA in the passing and run games.
Patriots vs. Bills Same Game Picks for NFL DFS & PrizePicks
Below are three top Patriots vs. Bills Week 5 picks for Sunday Night Football. Drake Maye, Hunter Henry, and James Cook are some same-game PrizePicks player projections to consider.
Patriots QB Drake Maye Projection: 225.5 Pass Yards
- As pointed out by ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky, Maye has accounted for 77% of the Patriots’ yards. That’s more than anyone else in the NFL.
- What Maye is doing on third and fourth downs is crushing 2025. He leads the sport in competition percentage above expected (CPOE) and EPA/play.
- The UNC product has completed at least 75% of his passes with 2+ passing TDs in three consecutive games. Only Brady has a longer single-season stretch in league history.
- In his one true start against the Bills a season ago, Maye threw for 261 yards, his third-highest total of the year.
Patriots TE Hunter Henry Projection: 41.5 Receiving Yards
- Henry has 3 TDs in his last two games and averages a personal best 51 receiving yards per contest.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Henry is sixth among all TEs with 10-plus targets in yards per route run (1.81).
- One sketchy element of the Bills’ defense is the red zone, where they rank 21st. Henry leads all TEs in red zone targets (6), per FantasyPros. He shares first place with 2 TDs.
- Contrary to recent history, this Patriots team can — and will — throw a ton. According to nfelo, their 3.2% pass rate over expected is third in the NFL.
- Week 5 presents an interesting tendency battle: The Bills allow the third-fewest fantasy points to TEs.
Bills RB James Cook Projection: 98.5 Rush+Rec Yards
- Cook, the reigning AFC Offensive Player of the Month, is off to a roaring start, potentially on pace to lead the league rushing TDs for the second-straight season.
- Entering Week 5, Cook holds career-highs in success rate (65.3%), rushing yards per game (100.3) and yards after contact per attempt (3.1).
- Sunday is a David vs. Goliath — or David vs. David, really — battle in the run game. Buffalo leads the NFL in attempts and yards on the ground, but New England boasts a top-five defense in both.
- Only six teams have given up more receptions to RBs (23) than the Patriots. Eight have yielded more receiving yards.
- Cook is 12-for-13 in converting targets to receptions, and his 22.3 receiving yards per game mark is a 6.2-yard improvement from 2024.
Make Patriots vs. Bills Picks on PrizePicks
Given the Bills’ lava-hot month of September, this Buffalo-New England meeting could have an impact on the AFC playoff picture. Patriots vs. Bills picks and other Week 5 projections on PrizePicks are the easiest way to enjoy season-long NFL action.
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