The Steelers and Patriots have each split their first two games as these AFC squads with plenty of history hook up at Gillette Stadium in NFL Week 3.
With Patriots QB Drake Maye looking to take advantage of a lacking Steelers defense, this game kicks off at 1:00 p.m. on CBS on Sunday, September 20.
Below, we’ll break down our Steelers vs. Patriots prediction and picks in this intriguing Week 3 matchup between the young upstart QB in Maye and Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers who is at the end of his career.
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Steelers vs. Patriots Prediction, Preview for NFL Week 3
Pittsburgh QB Aaron Rodgers dazzled in his Steelers’ debut against the Jets, tossing 4 TD passes in a last-second victory. However, the Steelers fell apart in the second half of their home opening loss to Seattle last week.
In case you haven't seen a Steelers game recently, this team has broken out of their mold of a shutdown defense, giving up over 30 points in each game to start the year.
The Patriots return home off their first victory under new head coach Mike Vrabel in a huge divisional triumph over the Dolphins. New England will try to fix its home woes to seek its first 2-1 start since 2020.
Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
- The Steelers put up 271 yards against the Jets in Week 1, followed by a 267-yard output in last Sunday’s loss to the Seahawks.
- Pittsburgh ranks 27th in the NFL in yards per game through two weeks.
- After scoring 4 TDs in the Jets win, the Steelers reached the end zone once against Seattle and had to settle for 3 FGs.
- Pittsburgh is trying to avoid its third 1-2 start since the 2021 season.
- The Steelers are 27th in expected points added per play allowed (.154).
New England Patriots Preview
- The Patriots offense has already stepped up from last season. New England finished 2024 producing the second-fewest yards per game, but currently rank 13th in that category through two games.
- In Week 1, the Patriots lost to the Raiders at home, 20-13. It marked the 11th loss in the past 13 games at Gillette Stadium for New England since 2022.
- New England ranks 25th in the NFL in defensive grade at 57.8 and sits 30th in tackling at an atrocious 39.5, per PFF.
- The Patriots are 25th in expected points added per play allowed (.099).
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Steelers vs. Patriots Picks for PrizePicks
Here are three Steelers vs. Patriots player picks for Week 3 in PrizePicks' real money NFL game, including Drake Maye, Jaylen Warren, and WR Kayshon Boutte.
Patriots QB Drake Maye vs. Steelers Projection: 224.5 Passing Yards
- Maye has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL this season, completing 71% of his passing attempts to rank 6th in the league.
- The third pick of the 2024 draft has eclipsed 230 passing yards in each of his first two games this season.
- In four of six starts at Gillette Stadium, Maye has thrown for at least 238 yards, including a 287-yard effort in the season opening loss to the Raiders.
- So far this year, the Steelers have given up 295 yards to Sam Darnold and 218 pass yards to Justin Fields.
- The Patriots have shifted into a pass-first offense, ranking fifth in pass-rate over expectation (PROE) at +4.9%.
Steelers RB Jaylen Warren vs. Patriots Projection: 54.5 Rushing Yards
- RB Jaylen Warren is finally getting his opportunity as the RB1 in Pittsburgh with Najee Harris in Los Angeles, but has been unimpressive through two games.
- The fourth-year RB has failed to reach 50 rushing yards in either of the first two games. In the opener against the Jets, Warren was held to 37 yards on 11 carries, followed by a 48-yard output in the Seattle loss last week.
- Since the start of the 2024 season, Warren has racked up more than 55 yards twice.
- However, he has not received more than 14 carries in a game since picking up 15 attempts for 101 yards against Green Bay in 2023.
- New England’s defense ranks fourth in rush defense expected points added (-.245), per rbsdm. They are also first in rushing success rate against at 26.3% — next are the Bucs at 30%.
- The Steelers are graded at 25th in PFF run blocking grade, while the Patriots have the 11th graded rush defense
Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte vs. Steelers Projection: 34.5 Receiving Yards
- The former LSU standout surprised the fantasy world in Week 1, lighting up the Raiders for 103 yards on 8 catches.
- Boutte couldn’t put together an encore against Miami last week, but did haul in a 16-yard TD for his lone catch (on one target) in the 33-27 victory.
- Boutte has two straight 100-yard receiving yard games at home, dating back to 2024 Week 18 vs. Buffalo.
- In five of his last seven games in Foxboro, Boutte has eclipsed the 36-yard threshold, as he faces the Steelers for the first time in his short career.
- The Steelers have given up two 26+ yard receivers in both games of 2025.
- Boutte leads the Patriots WRs in snaps in both games this year, with 82% in Week 1 and 72% in Week 2.
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The Steelers will look to bounce back from last week’s loss to Seattle and improve 2-0 on the road with a victory at New England on Sunday. Meanwhile, Maye will look to take advantage of a Steelers defense that appears to be reeling to start 2025.
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