Game 3 of the Spurs vs. Timberwolves series tips off at 9:30 p.m. ET on Friday, May 8. San Antonio enters as 4.5-point favorites on the PrizePicks Team Picks spread for the matchup on Prime Video.
With Minnesota stealing a road win to open the series but San Antonio responding with a blowout triumph just two nights later, where could the series be headed now that the action is in Minneapolis for the first time?
Below, we'll break down our Spurs vs. Timberwolves prediction and picks for Friday’s NBA Playoff Game 3, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Spurs vs. Timberwolves prediction on PrizePicks for tonight’s Game 3.
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Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Game 3 – Friday, May 8
Game 1 on Monday was one for the ages. Despite many expecting him to miss a huge chunk — or even all — of this series, SG Anthony Edwards returned for the Wolves and dropped 18 points on a tidy 8-of-13 shooting off the bench. Minnesota needed every bit of that production, to say the least.
The Timberwolves wound up losing the rebounding battle by a lone board and were far less efficient from the free throw line, also conceding more points off turnovers than their counterparts. Even with that being the case, they played just well enough to escape with a 2-point triumph.
Game 2 was an entirely different story. San Antonio held Minnesota to a minuscule 35 first-half points, effectively ending the game by the time both sides hit the locker room to regroup. No Timberwolves player topped 12 points, whereas seven Spurs reached double figures.
The latter contest reminded many of why the Spurs are a favorite to come out of the Western Conference. Will they parlay that into another win, or can Minnesota protect home court?
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Spread, Over/Under for Game 3 – Friday, May 8
The Spurs enter Friday’s game as 4.5-point favorites against the Timberwolves on the road, returning a 1.44x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Spurs vs. Timberwolves game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: San Antonio Spurs -4.5 (1.81x payout)
- Over/Under: 215.5 (1.78x payout on Over).
- Game Winner Payout: Spurs 1.44x | Timberwolves 2.56x
Make your Spurs vs. Timberwolves prediction on spread on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Timeline
Here is the full Spurs vs. Timberwolves timeline, including the playoff series game-by-game and recent matchup history.
All-Time: Spurs, 103-49
Regular Season: Timberwolves, 2-1
Series: Tied, 1-1
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Timeline, Schedule for 2026 NBA Playoffs
- Game 1: Timberwolves, 104-102
- Game 2: Spurs, 133-95
- Game 3: Friday, May 8, 9:30 p.m. in Minnesota
- Game 4: Sunday, May 10, 7:30 p.m. in Minnesota
- Game 5: Tuesday, May 12, TBD in San Antonio
- Games 6-7 if necessary
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prediction on Spread for Game 3 – 5/8/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Spurs vs. Timberwolves prediction on spread for Friday, May 8.
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- The Spurs are 15-12-1 against the spread as road favorites this year, good for the ninth-best mark in the sport. The Wolves are 5-4 ATS as home underdogs.
- San Antonio’s offense just keeps humming along, and it thrives inside the arc, ranking ninth in paint scoring (51.9 points per game) and fourth in 2-point percentage (56.9%).
- Minnesota’s interior defense is nothing to write home about, surrendering the 18th-ranked scoring mark (50.8 PPG).
- The Timberwolves like to run (15.6 fastbreak PPG, 11th) and fire up 3-pointers (36.8%, sixth). Their offense thrives on spacing.
- Unfortunately for Minnesota, the Spurs’ defense is the third-best in fastbreak scenarios (12.8 PPG) and fifth-best against treys (34.9%).
- According to databallr, the Spurs have a massive advantage in scoring efficiency this series, holding an effective field goal clip (55.0%) that’s 7.5% higher than the Timberwolves’ 47.5% share.
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 5/8/26
Here are three top Spurs vs. Timberwolves picks to target for Friday, May 8 on PrizePicks. Today’s NBA picks for PrizePicks include C Victor Wembanyama, PF Julius Randle, and SF Jaden McDaniels.
Spurs C Victor Wembanyama vs. Timberwolves Projection: 41.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- During the regular season, Wembanyama produced an average of 39.6 combined points, rebounds, and assists. That number is down to 36.8 in the postseason, even when casting aside his abbreviated Game 2 in the first round due to injury.
- The superstar big man’s 3-point shot has abandoned him, as he’s shooting just 13.3% (2-of-15) in Games 1 and 2.
- Wemby’s total rebounding rate has fallen from 21.2% in the regular season to 19.9% in the NBA Playoffs.
- Minnesota’s defense allows the ninth-fewest assists per made shot at 0.632.
Add Victor Wembanyama to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Timberwolves PF Julius Randle vs. Spurs Stats: 30.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Randle averaged a healthy 32.8 PRA in 79 regular-season contests. That figure is 29.5 in the postseason.
- According to databallr, Randle puts up 26.0 true shot attempts per 100 possessions, ranking in the 90th percentile.
- The veteran forward hauls in 3.0 contested rebounds each night in the postseason, sitting in the top 20 among all players via NBA Advanced Stats.
- From the regular season to the NBA Playoffs, Randle’s 26.5% usage rate has remained the exact same.
Add Julius Randle to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Timberwolves SF Jaden McDaniels vs. Spurs Projection: 14.5 Points
- McDaniels was a relatively quiet regular-season scorer for Minnesota (14.8 PPG) but has upped his production to 16.9 PPG on 50.4% shooting in the postseason.
- The midrange shot has been McDaniels’ best friend in the NBA Playoffs. He’s shooting a scorching 61.9% from 10-16 feet and 55.6% from 16 feet to the 3-point line.
- Per NBA RAPM, McDaniels’ 2-point attempts per 100 and 2-point true shooting percentage put him in the 89th and 79th percentiles, respectively, in the playoffs.
- The versatile forward is the king of creating second chances, ranking in the 95th percentile of rebounding his own missed shots.
Add Jaden McDaniels to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
NBA Playoffs Live Picks: Spurs vs. Timberwolves on PrizePicks for Game 3
Here are some angles to target for your Spurs vs. Timberwolves live picks.
Every live NBA Lineup on PrizePicks during the NBA Playoffs enters you to win a trip to the NBA Finals — paid by PrizePicks. Make your live NBA Playoffs picks on PrizePicks.
- Both teams are strong coming out of the gate. San Antonio is top two in scoring in both the first and second quarters, but Minnesota’s defense is ninth and eighth in those frames, respectively.
- A lightning-fast tempo continues to be the Timberwolves’ M.O. this postseason, as they lead the NBA Playoff field in pace at 100.19. The Spurs are just two spots behind them at 98.71.
- Could there be some fireworks down the stretch, similar to Game 1? Per NBA Advanced Stats, the Spurs and Wolves are second and third in fourth-quarter offensive rating this postseason.
- Randle continues to be a mostly steady playoff performer as a member of Minnesota, averaging 20.6 PPG on 47.4% shooting in 23 NBA Playoff contests.
- Unexpectedly, Edwards has been a worse player at home this season. He scores 3.0 fewer PPG at the Target Center, also shooting 0.6% worse from the field and 0.9% worse from deep while averaging 0.8 fewer assists.
Make Spurs vs. Timberwolves Game 3 Picks on PrizePicks
Minnesota shocked the hoops world when it captured a thrilling but nail-biting victory in Game 1. San Antonio came back with a vengeance to win Game 2 by a whopping 38 points. What’s in store for a pivotal Game 3 of this Western Conference semifinals series?
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