The San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat, two franchises that combined for six titles from 2005-14, will battle on Monday at 7:00 p.m. ET on Peacock with both teams in the middle of their respective conference playoff hunts.
The Heat have lost four straight to fall back into ninth place in the Eastern Conference, one game behind the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers.
San Antonio, who's clinched its first playoff spot since 2019, has won five straight and is three games behind the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder for the best record in the Western Conference.
Below, we’ll break down our Spurs vs. Heat prediction and picks for Monday night’s game. Make your NBA picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Spurs vs. Heat Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The Spurs and Heat meet for the second time this season, with the Spurs taking the October meeting by six points.
The Heat swept the Spurs in each of the last two seasons, but the Spurs lead the all-time regular–season series, 48-30. The two also met in back-to-back NBA Finals in 2013 and 2014, splitting the championships.
Spurs vs. Heat Spread, Over/Under
The Spurs enter Friday night’s game as 5.5-point favorites, returning a 1.4x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.
The Heat are underdogs with a 2.77x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: San Antonio Spurs -5.5 (1.92x)
- Over/Under: 240.5 (1.88x)
- Game Winner Payout: Heat 2.77x | Spurs 1.4x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Spurs vs. Heat Prediction on Spread – 3/23/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Spurs vs. Heat prediction on the spread for Monday, March 23 on PrizePicks.
- The Heat are 42-29 against the spread. The 59.2% cover percentage is second-best in the league behind the Charlotte Hornets.
- Miami is 22-13 ATS as an underdog, including a 7-2 ATS record as a home dog. The latter mark is the best cover rate of any team with at least five games in that scenario.
- The Heat have the highest pace in the NBA at 104.52 and average 120.3 points per game, second-most in the NBA behind the Denver Nuggets.
- The Spurs are 39-31-2 ATS, the seventh-best record in the league. They're just 10-10-1 ATS as a road favorite and have covered only once during their five-game winning streak.
- San Antonio is led by its defense, which is third in the league in rating (110.5), fifth in opponent field goal percentage (45.1), and seventh in PPG (111.7).
Spurs vs. Heat Injury Report
Let’s dive into the full Spurs vs. Heat injury report for Monday, via NBA.com.
San Antonio Spurs Injury Report
- G Stephon Castle (hip): Available
- SG-SF Devin Vassell (hamstring): Questionable
Miami Heat Injury Report
- F Jaime Jaquez Jr. (hip): Probable
- F Nikola Jovic (back): Available
- SG Pelle Larsson (foot): Available
- SG-SF Norman Powell (calf): Questionable
- F Andrew Wiggins (toe): Probable
Spurs vs. Heat Picks for PrizePicks Today: March 23
Here are two top Spurs vs. Heat picks to target for Monday, March 23 on PrizePicks. Today’s NBA picks for PrizePicks are headlined by Spurs C Victor Wembanyama and Heat C Bam Adebayo.
Spurs C Victor Wembanyama vs. Heat Projection: 26.5 Points
- Wembanyama has failed to reach hit his points projection in three of his last four games after reaching it in five straight games prior.
- The difference lately? Simply home or road. In his last seven home games, he's reached his projection six times, averaging 31.3 PPG. In his last seven road games, he's averaged 17.0 PPG and hit the projection just once.
- The big man is posting 24.3 PPG (18th) and 11.1 rebounds per game (seventh).
- During the Spurs' current streak, Wemby is averaging 25.0 PPG. In four career games vs. Miami, he averages a mere 21.0 PPG.
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Heat C Bam Adebayo vs. Spurs projection: 20.5 Points
- Adebayo has reached his points projection in 11 straight and in 25 of the past 31 games. This came after not doing so in 11 straight games from December 18 to January 11.
- During the 11-game streak of not hitting his projection, he made a total of five 3-pointers. Since then, he's averaged 2.3 makes.
- In the lone matchup in which he played the Spurs this season, Adebayo scored 31 while going 12-of-27 from the field and 4-for-13 from deep.
- The Kentucky product is scoring 20.4 PPG, third-best on the Heat behind Powell and SG Tyler Herro.
Make Spurs vs. Heat Picks on PrizePicks
Can the Spurs run their winning streak to six games and stay within distance of the top-seeded Thunder, or will the Heat end their skid and defend home court?
You can make your Spurs vs. Heat picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued NBA predictions, picks, and news every day until the 2026 NBA Finals.
