Tuesday has a jam-packed schedule of 10 NBA games, led by an NBC and Peacock doubleheader. The San Antonio Spurs (43-18) and Philadelphia 76ers (33-27) begin the prime-time back-to-back with an 8:00 p.m. ET tip-off in Xfinity Mobile Arena.
San Antonio is one of the league’s hottest teams with a 9-1 record in the last 10 games, and Philadelphia is only 4-6 in the same split.
Below, we’ll break down the matchup between the two playoff squads, make a Spurs vs. 76ers prediction, and underline PrizePicks player projections to consider.
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Spurs vs. 76ers Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The 76ers are 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head matchups, but last season’s series was split at 1-1. Will the tide turn in the 2025-26 campaign’s first collision?
During the Spurs’ hot streak, they boast a 7-3 against-the-spread (ATS) record, compared to Philly’s 4-6 record in the 10-game split. The under is 3-1 in San Antonio’s last four games, and the Sixers feature a contrasting trend with the over being 4-1 in the past five.
Spurs vs. 76ers Spread, Over/Under
Philadelphia’s rotation is missing one of its top players tonight, resulting in a 3.44x payout to win on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 34 states.
Will San Antonio keep its ATS trend alive as 6.5-point favorites on the road?
- Spread: San Antonio Spurs -6.5
- Over/Under: 234.5
- Game Winner Payout: Spurs 1.31x | 76ers 3.44x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Spurs vs. 76ers Injury Report
Let’s have a look at the full Spurs vs. 76ers injury report for Tuesday’s matchup, via NBA.com.
Spurs Injury Report
The Spurs feature a healthy rotation for Tuesday night.
76ers Injury Report
- C Joel Embiid (oblique): OUT
- F Paul George (league suspension): OUT
Spurs vs. 76ers Prediction on Spread
Without C Joel Embiid in the lineup, Philadelphia will be lacking 26.6 points per game (PPG) and 7.5 rebounds per game (RPG). The Sixers carry a 2-5 record in the big man’s last seven absences.
This feels even more crucial in a matchup against Spurs PF/C Victor Wembanyama (23.7 PPG, 11.2 RPG). Furthermore, San Antonio ranks eighth in shot distribution around the rim, per Dunks & Threes, and Philly is missing Embiid’s 1.1 blocks per outing.
The 76ers are sixth in shot distribution around the rim, but that may take a hit without the former MVP center. Plus, the Spurs are fourth in shot distribution around the rim allowed and surrender only 46.6 points in the paint per game (seventh).
Philadelphia could be more reliant on 3-pointers, but San Antonio holds opponents to the seventh-lowest shot distribution from beyond the arc and 36.4 attempted triples per matchup (12th).
Putting points on the board against the Spurs' defense — ranked third in defensive rating, via NBA Advanced Stats — could be a challenge. The Sixers record 116.4 PPG on the season (11th), but that’s dropped to 110.4 PPG in Embiid’s last seven absences.
Spurs vs. 76ers Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/3/26
For PrizePicks player projections, Spurs G Stephon Castle could live around the rim, and 76ers PG Tyrese Maxey could feature increased usage on Tuesday.
Spurs G Stephon Castle vs. 76ers Projection: 15.5 Points
- Dunks & Threes ranks the 76ers 25th in shot distribution around the rim allowed, and Embiid’s absence could magnify that weakness.
- Castle has a knack for getting to the rim, attempting only 3.5 treys per game while taking 54.2% of his shots within 10 feet of the basket.
- The UConn product has recorded 12.8 field goal attempts per game in his last four, a slight increase from his 12.2 average for the season.
- Castle also ranks second on the Spurs with 5.8 free throw attempts per appearance. Philadelphia ranks 20th in personal fouls per play and gives up 24.6 free throw shots each night (23rd).
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76ers PG Tyrese Maxey vs. Spurs Projection: 29.5 Points
- San Antonio is slightly vulnerable from beyond the arc, as opponents shoot 35.7% on 3-pointers (14th) compared to 51.6% on 2-pointers (fourth).
- Maxey leads the Sixers lineup with 8.9 attempted triples per game, and that’s increased to 10.0 in his last six appearances.
- In Embiid’s past six absences, Maxey recorded 31.5 PPG.
- When the star center’s off the court, the 76ers guard sees a +2.5% increase in usage rate, per FantasyLabs. Maxey’s 25.0 shots per game in Embiid’s last six contests missed further prove that — an increase from a 21.9 average on the year.
Make Spurs vs. 76ers Picks on PrizePicks
Ranked fourth in NET rating, the Spurs could be too much against the 76ers without Embiid. Maxey’s role may increase due to the big man's injury, but can he do enough to keep it close?
Make your Spurs vs. 76ers picks at PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just choose players predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 34 states.
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