The Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury game is set to tip off at 10:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, May 21, with the Mercury entering as 1.5-point favorites on the spread, via PrizePicks.
The Sparks (1-3) split a pair of home games with the expansion Toronto Tempo, capped off by a 106-96 setback on Sunday. Los Angeles hits the road for the first time this season, posting a 12-10 mark away from Crypto.com Arena.
The Mercury (2-3) crushed the Aces in a WNBA Finals rematch to open the season but have lost three of the last four games. Two of those defeats came at home, including allowing a season-high 98 points in Tuesday’s defeat to Toronto.
Below, we'll break down our Sparks vs. Mercury prediction and picks for Thursday’s WNBA game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Sparks vs. Mercury Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, May 21
Phoenix picked up a modicum of revenge against Las Vegas in a 99-66 rout after getting swept in the WNBA Finals. That joy faded away less than 24 hours later in a 95-79 setback at Golden State.
The Mercury seek a split of their four-game homestand after starting 1-2. The lone victory came against Chicago, bookended by losses to Minnesota and Toronto. Since the blowout of Las Vegas, Phoenix has allowed 91.0 points per game (PPG) in the last four games.
L.A. has yielded a league-worst 98.3 PPG, including a pair of games allowing at least 105 points. The Sparks have yet to cover the spread this season.
In Sunday’s 10-point loss to Toronto, the Sparks surrendered 39 free throws, the most made by any team in a game this season. Coincidentally, the team to convert the second-most foul shots in a game is Phoenix, who previously hit 37 against Chicago.
Sparks vs. Mercury Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, May 21
The Mercury enter Thursday’s game as 1.5-point home favorites against the Sparks, returning a 1.61x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Sparks vs. Mercury game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury -1.5 (1.58x payout)
- Over/Under: 180.5 (1.81x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Sparks 2.12x | Mercury 1.61x
Make your Sparks vs. Mercury prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Sparks vs. Mercury Injury Report for Thursday, May 21
Let’s dive into the full Sparks vs. Mercury injury report for Thursday, May 21, via WNBA.com.
Los Angeles Sparks Injury Report
- F Sania Feagin - OUT
Phoenix Mercury Injury Report
- G Sami Whitcomb - OUT
Sparks vs. Mercury Prediction on Winner – 5/21/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Sparks vs. Mercury prediction on the winner for Thursday, May 21.
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- The Mercury captured three of four matchups last season, while the underdog covered three times. Phoenix averaged 86.5 PPG in the meetings.
- Los Angeles won the final meeting, 88-83, as 7-point road underdogs. Sparks F Dearica Hamby scored 25 points in each of the last two games against Phoenix.
- That loss snapped a seven-game winning streak by Phoenix over Los Angeles dating back to the start of the 2024 campaign.
- Out of the top seven teams in field goal percentage, the Sparks (49.4%, fourth) are the only one with a losing record.
- In 2025, Los Angeles compiled the highest road FG% at 46.8% but failed to shoot better than 42% in the two games at Phoenix.
- Phoenix knocked down at least 10 3-pointers in each game against Los Angeles, but the Mercury have failed to hit 10 treys in each of the past three outings.
Sparks vs. Mercury Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 5/21/26
Here are the top Sparks vs. Mercury picks to target on Thursday, May 21. Today’s WNBA picks for PrizePicks include G Kelsey Plum and F Alyssa Thomas.
Sparks G Kelsey Plum vs. Mercury Projection: 20.5 Points
- Plum leads the WNBA in scoring at 26.8 PPG, marking the second time in her career averaging at least 20 PPG.
- The former University of Washington star has topped the 25-point mark in all four games, coming off a season-high 28 against Toronto on Sunday.
- Plum scored more than 20 points once in four matchups with Phoenix in 2025, a 25-point spot in an 89-86 defeat exactly one year ago.
- The Mercury allowed three players to score at least 29 points in the last two games, including a pair of Tempo players (Brittney Sykes and Marina Mabrey) to put up more than 30.
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Mercury F Alyssa Thomas vs. Sparks Projection: 24.5 Pts + Rebs
- Thomas is averaging a career-high 16.6 PPG, along with pulling down 7.2 rebounds a contest.
- In the first two games at Las Vegas and Golden State, the 12th-year veteran combined for at least 26 points and rebounds. She has been held below 24 PR in two of the past three outings.
- Thomas put together a pair of triple-doubles in her last matchups with the Sparks. However, she’s passed this projection just once in three games against L.A. in 2025.
- In three of five contests, the former Sun star has been held to 6 or fewer rebounds. Los Angeles is the top team at limiting opponent rebounds (28.8 RPG).
Add Alyssa Thomas to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Sparks vs. Mercury Picks on PrizePicks
Both Los Angeles and Phoenix are coming off home losses heading into their first meeting this season. Who will come out on top in the Western Conference showdown?
Don’t wait until tip-off — make your Sparks vs. Mercury picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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