Seahawks vs. Broncos Prediction, Pick Against the Spread for Thursday Night Football

Thursday Night Football showcases two potential NFL playoff contenders, with the Seattle Seahawks (3-2) visiting the Denver Broncos (3-2) for an 8:15 p.m. ET battle on Prime Video. According to PrizePicks, the Seahawks are a 2.5-point favorite on the spread tonight.

Seattle has lost two of its last three games with struggles in the run game and turnover woes. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 3-1 over their last four appearances, but the offense continues to stumble at an alarming rate. If you like defense, this one’s for you, as two of the league’s best units collide with tonight’s 40.5 over/under on PrizePicks.

Let’s jump into our Seahawks vs. Broncos prediction, look at injuries, and more for Thursday Night Football, including the point spread via PrizePicks.

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Seahawks vs. Broncos Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Thursday Night Football – 10/15/26

For the sixth consecutive game of the 2026 season, the Seahawks are favored, featuring a 2.5-point spread and a 1.66x payout to win — or a $166 return on a $100 entry if you’re right.

Here are the full payouts for the Seahawks vs. Broncos on PrizePicks, including winner payouts, the spread, and the over/under. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. 

Make your Seahawks vs. Broncos prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.

Through five games, the Seahawks have allowed 21.0 PPG (eighth) compared to the Broncos’ 22.2 PPG (13th). Since surrendering only 8.5 PPG in the first two games, opponents have tallied 29.3 PPG over Seattle’s last three. Denver, in comparison, has ceded at least 24 points in three of five contests. 

However, some of these point totals are deceiving, as RBSDM gives the Seahawks (38.4%) and Broncos (40.7%) the second- and fifth-best success rates allowed.

Despite giving up a league-low 4.1 yards per play, Seattle’s D has battled short fields thanks to the offense’s 1.8 turnovers per game (25th) — including last week’s 4 turnovers in a 32-29 loss vs. the 49ers. 

Denver holds 1.2 giveaways per contest (14th) on offense, but its logged at least 1 turnover in all five games this season. Plus, the offense holds an alarming 4.7 yards per play (26th), including QB Bo Nix sporting a 42.1% success rate (27th). Nix gave his thoughts on playing poorly to open the season.

The Broncos’ 28:37 average time of possession is 22nd, per TeamRankings, meaning their defense is usually on the field thanks to struggles on offense.

Furthermore, the Broncos’ decline on defense compared to last season’s 18.5 PPG (fourth) feels more sticky compared to Seattle. For example, Denver is yielding 5.2 yards per play (13th), and CB Pat Surtain II (ankle) and S Talanoa Hufanga (ankle) remain out, while CB Riley Moss (ribs) is questionable tonight. Until Surtain is back, the Broncos’ D likely won’t be what we’re used to.

After being a limited participant at practice on Monday and Tuesday, Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ankle) is good to go, and that’s bad news for a beat-up Denver secondary. However, Seattle still has worries in the run game, as RB Zach Charbonnet is still inactive with his knee injury despite being a limited participant at all three practices this week. 

The Broncos come off a 23-17 win over the Chargers, in which they held L.A. to 3.8 yards per play while forcing 3 turnovers. Will Denver carry that play into Thursday Night Football? Let’s get into our Seahawks vs. Broncos pick against the spread.

Seahawks vs. Broncos Prediction on Spread for Thursday Night Football – 10/15/26

If you want high-level QB play, this one probably isn’t for you. Seahawks QB Sam Darnold touts -0.082 adjusted EPA per play (28th) with 5 INTs and 7 turnover-worthy plays over three full starts, per Pro Football Focus. Darnold’s turnover-worthy play rate jumps to a concerning 10.0% when under pressure.

As mentioned, Broncos QB Bo Nix has been one of the league’s worst signal-callers to begin the year. Despite an extremely low 5.8 air yards per attempt (32nd), his completion percentage over expectation is still -2.6%. According to Pro Football Reference, Nix touts a 71.4% on-target rate (sixth-lowest), and his 18.4% bad throw rate is the ninth-highest total. 

He has 3 INTs and 11 turnover-worthy plays through five contests. When under pressure, Nix’s turnover-worthy play rate spikes to 11.0%, but fortunately, he drops back behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines that gives up a 3.57% sack rate (fourth-lowest). 

Adding to each offense’s challenge, the Seahawks tally 3.8 yards per carry (20th) compared to Denver’s 3.6 (27th). The Broncos allow a 35.9% rush success rate (ninth), while Seattle cedes 33.9% (fourth). Each team will likely want to avoid some dropbacks to avoid turnovers, and the Seahawks could have the advantage to run the rock.

Additionally, Seattle’s passing game has been much better, proven by 8.1 yards per passing attempt (sixth). Denver sports only 5.8 yards per passing attempt (29th). This is mostly thanks to Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and he could feast with his 91.5 receiving yard projection against this depleted Broncos secondary.

PrizePicks also projects Darnold for 220.5 pass yards compared to Nix’s 199.5. On the ground, Seahawks RB Emanuel Wilson has 65.5 projected rushing yards vs. Broncos RB J.K. Dobbins’ 49.5. 

Seattle’s offense is much more trustworthy right now. Plus, the Seahawks’ 37.5% pressure rate on defense (fourth) is slightly ahead of Denver’s 33.2% (eighth), via FTN Fantasy, giving another potential advantage for creating havoc and forcing turnovers.

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After failing to cover the spread in two of the last three games, are the Seahawks poised to rebound on Thursday Night Football? Seattle’s passing attack could take advantage of injuries in the Broncos’ secondary, while Denver’s offense has a tough test ahead. 

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Seahawks vs. Broncos picks on PrizePicks to win real money if you're right. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions when you're right.

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