Conference USA takes center stage when the Liberty Flames host the Sam Houston Bearkats at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 8 on ESPNU. The Flames are 13.5-point favorites and return a 1.16x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks.
Liberty has begun the 2026 season 4-1 and most recently topped Delaware 30-14 last Friday. Meanwhile, Sam Houston enters Thursday’s matchup with just a 1-3 record after falling 49-14 against #11 Texas Tech on September 26.
Below, we’ll break down our Sam Houston vs. Liberty prediction and picks for Thursday night's game, including the spread, over/under, and player projections for PrizePicks.
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Sam Houston vs. Liberty Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, October 8
Liberty enters Thursday’s game as a 13.5-point home favorite against Sam Houston, returning a 1.16x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks — or an estimated $116 on a $100 entry.
Here are the full payouts for the Sam Houston vs. Liberty game on PrizePicks. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Make your Sam Houston vs. Liberty prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.
Liberty has been remarkably successful since moving to Conference USA. In three seasons under head coach Jamey Chadwell, the Flames have posted a 25-13 record, including two winning seasons and a 13-1 campaign in 2023.
The Flames have been CUSA's most electrifying offense this season. Liberty currently averages a conference-best 416.8 total yards per game, including 208.2 yards on the ground.
RB Kam Davis is the straw that stirs the drink. He currently leads Conference USA with a staggering 7.1 yards per carry and has tallied 457 yards and 3 TDs on the ground, both second in the conference. Davis owns a mark of 0.55 EPA per rush in 2026, along with a 59% success rate.
QB Deshawn Purdie has thrived, too, leading an offense that's posted 0.26 EPA per pass. He's thrown an impressive 5 TDs over his last three games and has tallied 8.59 yards per dropback on the year.
Meanwhile, Sam Houston has actually been Conference USA’s top passing offense, averaging 308.0 YPG. The Bearkats are led by QB Landyn Locke, who's completing 66.2% of his passes for 1,168 yards and 11 TDs.
According to Game on Paper, though, Locke has posted just 0.01 EPA per pass and a 52% success rate. He did toss a pair of INTs in his most recent game against Texas Tech.
The biggest difference between these two teams is Sam Houston’s struggles to run the ball effectively. In fact, the Bearkats have averaged just 3.2 YPC and are led by RB Alton McCaskill, who has 165 yards on 3.8 YPC this season.
Sam Houston does boast a strong pass defense that could keep Purdie in check throughout Thursday’s contest. After all, the Bearkats surrender a league-low 145.3 passing yards per contest.
Sam Houston vs. Liberty Prediction on Spread – 10/8/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Sam Houston vs. Liberty prediction on the spread for Thursday, October 8 in this battle of Conference USA foes.
- Liberty leads Conference USA in rushing YPG and has tallied a 0.13 EPA/rush (27th nationally). Meanwhile, the Sam Houston defense has surrendered 0.23 EPA/rush, sitting 129th in the country.
- Sam Houston has given up the third-most rushing yards per game (190.3) in Conference USA.
- Liberty has thrived on late downs, converting on 53.3% of its third and fourth-down attempts (tied for 13th nationally).
- Liberty has averaged a Conference USA-best 30.4 PPG while also slotting in at second in total yards per game.
- Sam Houston has recorded a -0.04 EPA/pass (101st). Locke averages only 6.07 yards per dropback, ranking 86th among collegiate QBs.
- The Flames really excel in defending the pass, allowing -0.05 EPA/dropback (39th nationally). Liberty's allowed just 17.8 PPG this season.
Lock in your Sam Houston vs. Liberty prediction on PrizePicks before kickoff.
Sam Houston vs. Liberty Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/8/26
Here are the top Sam Houston vs. Liberty picks to target on Thursday, October 8. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include Deshawn Purdie and Makai Jackson.
Liberty QB Deshawn Purdie vs. Sam Houston: 208.5 Pass Yards
- Purdie has completed 60.0% of his passes for 936 yards and 7 TDs, but he failed to reach 209 passing yards in two of his five contests.
- Liberty heavily relies on the ground game, averaging 43.0 attempts per contest. The Flames have carried the ball 215 times, tying them for ninth in the country.
- Purdie notches 20.0 passing attempts each time out and only topped that average in one game in 2026.
- Sam Houston has yielded a -0.17 EPA/pass this season (15th nationally).
Add Deshawn Purdie + Liberty to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Liberty WR Makai Jackson vs. Sam Houston: 69.5 Rec Yards
- Jackson leads Conference USA in both receiving yards (469) and yards per reception (24.7).
- The Flames star WR has recorded 70+ receiving yards in four of his five games in 2026.
- Jackson accounts for 45.0% of Liberty’s receiving yards entering Week 6 of the collegiate campaign.
- The former Indiana wideout has recorded a catch of 50+ yards in four of his five contests this season while still maintaining a 77.0% catch rate.
Pick Makai Jackson + Liberty to cover the spread on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
Make Sam Houston vs. Liberty Picks on PrizePicks
Liberty possesses one of the most electric offenses in Conference USA. Can the Flames take care of business against the Bearkats at home on Thursday night?
Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Sam Houston vs. Liberty picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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