Saints vs. Lions Prediction, Spread, NFL Week 1 Picks – Sunday, September 13

Saints vs. Lions is set for kickoff at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 13, with the Lions being 6.5-point favorites, via PrizePicks.

After a disappointing 2025 campaign in which the Lions finished 9-8, they aspire to make a deep playoff run behind star RB Jahmyr Gibbs. The Saints will try to improve on their 6-11 record from 2025 but will begin the season with first-round pick WR Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) on injured reserve.

Below, we’ll break down our Saints vs. Lions prediction and picks for NFL Week 1, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Saints vs. Lions Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Sunday, September 13

Gibbs will likely be thrust into a larger role this season after RB David Montgomery landed with the Texans. That’s not a bad thing, considering he averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry in all three seasons of his career. Per Pro Football Focus, Gibbs ranked ninth in explosive runs and third in forced missed tackles among running backs last season.

With Gibbs and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown leading the offense, the Lions were tied for the fourth-most points scored per game (28.3) last year. The Saints were at the other end of the spectrum, scoring the fifth-fewest points per matchup (18.0).

Saints vs. Lions Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Sunday, September 13

The Lions enter Sunday’s game as a 6.5-point home favorite against the Saints, via PrizePicks.

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Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.

Saints vs. Lions Prediction on Spread – 9/13/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Saints vs. Lions prediction on the spread for Sunday, September 13.

• The Lions were 5-3 at home last season, while the Saints were 3-6 on the road.
• Detroit had a +68 point differential last year, compared to the Saints’ mark of -77.
• In addition to Tyson being out for Week 1, Saints RB Alvin Kamara is dealing with a sprained MCL. Despite the addition of RB Travis Etienne Jr., Kamara is still expected to have a role in passing situations this season. He was a limited participant in Wednesday's and Thursday's practices, but it is uncertain if he will play on Sunday.
• According to RBSDM, the Lions were ninth in EPA/play last season. Meanwhile, the Saints were 27th in the category.
• Detroit had 66 pass completions of at least 20 yards last season, which ranked third in the league. The Saints were second-to-last with only 33.

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Saints vs. Lions Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/13/26

Here are top Saints vs. Lions picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, September 13. Week 1 NFL picks for PrizePicks include Amon-Ra St. Brown and Devaughn Vele.

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Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Saints: 6.5 Receptions

• St. Brown logged at least 7 receptions in 10 of 17 games last season. Excluding one game in which he left after just 4 snaps because of injury, he averaged 7.1 receptions at home.
• Among 81 qualified wide receivers, the former fourth-round pick ranked second in targets and fourth in receptions last year, per PFF.
• St. Brown had a 31.7% target share and accounted for 38.9% of the Lions’ air yards in 2025.
• Lions QB Jared Goff has completed at least 69.0% of his passes at home in each of the last three seasons.

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Saints WR Devaughn Vele vs. Lions: 39.5 Receiving Yards

• WR Chris Olave will lead the Saints with Tyson sidelined, and Vele should step into their WR2 role. Behind him are fourth-round rookie WR Bryce Lance and sixth-round rookie WR Barion Brown.
• Vele filled a limited role to begin last season, but the Saints put him on the field more often following their Week 11 bye. He went on to record at least 37 receiving yards in each of the next four games. In two of those, he surpassed 65 receiving yards. He then missed the last three games of the season with an injury.
• After posting an average depth of target (aDOT) of 8.0 in 2024, that mark increased to 11.1 yards last season.
• Teams often needed to throw a lot against the Lions to keep pace with their high-powered offense last year. Detroit had the 12th-most passes attempted against them and allowed the ninth-most yards per pass attempt (7.3).

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The Lions will try to take care of business at home with a decision win over the Saints in Week 1. St. Brown should be busy along the way, while the potential for increased targets may benefit Vele.

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