A historic MMA fightgoes down on Netflix this weekend as Jake Paul’s Most Valuable Promotions (MVP) kicks off its maiden voyage into mixed martial arts on Netflix — headlined by Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano.
Famous MMA stars of the past, present, and future will take to the world’s largest streaming platform to bottle the elite production quality that Paul’s boxing events have produced and translate them to a cage.
Saturday night’s main event between Rousey vs. Carano brings back the largest female star in MMA history after a nearly decade-long layoff.
Former UFC bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey will battle former Strikeforce title contender Gina Carano in a five-round battle at 145 pounds.
Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano is expected to start around 11:15 p.m. EST on Netflix on Saturday night, depending on when the other main card fights conclude.
Make your Netflix MVP MMA: Rousey vs. Carano prediction on PrizePicks to earn real money if you’re right, including on winners, method of victory, and more!
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Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Prediction, Payouts Tonight for Netflix MVP MMA 1
Rousey is currently the favorite to win the MVP MMA 1 main event vs. Gina Carano tonight.
Below are the payouts for who will win the Rousey vs. Carano fight via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Ronda Rousey: 1.21x to win
Gina Carano: 4.00x to win
Make your Rousey vs. Carano prediction to earn real money on PrizePicks
Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.
Rousey vs. Carano Fight Preview for Saturday, May 16
Over a decade ago, it seemed plausible that Ronda Rousey — in the midst of a 12-fight winning streak that put women’s MMA on the map — might have to defend her title against Gina Carano, a 7-0 fighter in Strikeforce.
Neither MMA career ended as planned, though. Carano retired from professional MMA after a first-round loss to Cris Cyborg, who went on to become a Bellator and PFL champion, in 2009.
“Rowdy” Ronda Rousey suffered one of the biggest upset losses in UFC history as Holly Holm landed her famous headkick. Rousey’s follow-up bout with Amanda Nunes ended in under 60 seconds.
In MMA, fighters lose to younger, hungrier, and more talented up-and-comers. All three of those ladies qualified – and shouldn’t take anything from two excellent careers that have sparked post-full-time ventures for both.
Rousey took up professional wrestling with WWE, and Carano had a successful acting career capped by a two-season role in Disney’s The Mandalorian.
As the two re-lace the gloves in this one-off bout to promote Paul’s new MMA promotion on Netflix, it’ll be interesting to see how an impromptu training camp went for both women. They’re definitely in the gym; Rousey was seen working with former MMA pro A.J. Matthews.
Meanwhile, Carano seems to be getting in reps at Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson’s Santo Studio.
Whoever has the better “crash course” of a training camp could potentially decide this Rousey vs. Carano bout, which has a ton of unknowns.
How Ronda Rousey Wins vs. Carano Tonight
Ronda Rousey’s success came in a very different era of MMA, where her ability to use judo throws and set up an armbar alone won her most fights before they started. 10 of Rousey’s 12 pro wins came via armbar.
That’s got to be like riding a bike and “Plan A” against Carano, whose background was in Muay Thai.
Managing her confidence at distance if early takedowns aren’t coming will also be key. She can’t get flustered and resign to striking range.
How Gina Carano Wins vs. Rousey Tonight
Gina Carano hasn’t fought professionally since 2009. If she wants any chance at pulling a huge upset, she’s going to have to shake off maybe one of the most extreme cases of high-level ring rust in MMA history.
Avoiding the ground will be paramount for the former Strikeforce contender. If she’s able to stop Rousey’s judo throws, the favorite’s poor striking defense in UFC (44%) was outright exposed by a higher level of competition.
Rousey vs. Carano Prediction for Netflix MVP MMA 1 Main Event
If it hasn’t become clear, this isn’t exactly the most obvious fight to predict, with both coming off massive layoffs. There are a lot of unknowns.
It's really hard to gauge their overall athleticism, endurance, or general skill set. Let's make that clear off the rip.
At their peak, Rousey was the significantly more credentialed fighter. That’s why she’s a hefty favorite over Carano, who never appeared in UFC. However, Ronda’s own limitations became extremely evident by the end of her UFC tenure, and MMA has evolved dramatically, as Carano trains at a well-regarded gym for this fight.
Plus, Carano fought at 145 pounds in her pro career compared to Rousey at women’s 135. The underdog is a bit larger of a fighter — with a 2-inch height advantage, in a fight where size and strength could be two huge factors.
High-variance fights like this aren’t the spot to lean into hefty consensus projections. Carano’s Muay Thai background absolutely gives her the tools to make things interesting.
Make Your Rousey vs. Carano Picks on PrizePicks
MVP MMA 1’s main event goes down this Saturday from the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. Before the Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano fight gets underway on Netflix, lock in your MMA predictions for the fight on PrizePicks.
Go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections for Rousey vs. Carano, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.
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