On Thursday, Chiefs WR Rashee Rice was sentenced to five years of probation and 30 days in jail — which he can serve at any point during the probationary period — for his part in a multi-car accident in Dallas, on March 30, 2024.
With the sentence handed down, a suspension from the NFL is expected soon follow, which will impact Rice's fantasy football outlook for 2025, as he was expected to be a key WR for the team in 2025 after missing all but three games in the 2024 season.
Rice's suspension is expected to be 4-6 games, with six games looking like the most likely outcome for the initial suspension — we'll have to wait and see if he'll appeal. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Rice will likely receive a "multi-game suspension"
We'll analyze the full fantasy football impact of Rashee Rice's likely suspension, including the impact on every piece of the Chiefs offense, including Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and other Chiefs WRs, like Xavier Worthy.
Looking to win cash with your fantasy football predictions in 2025? Make your ideal fantasy football team on PrizePicks NFLSZN game, by picking More or Less on season-long player stat projections, like receiving yards and touchdowns.
Fantasy Football Impact of Rashee Rice's Likely Suspension
With Rice likely to serve a 4-6 game suspension, it'll have a large impact on fantasy football drafts and value as we head into draft season. Rice is currently the WR14 in FantasyPros' ADP for PPR leagues, but it is likely to drop after this news.
WR Rashee Rice Fantasy Football Outlook
Rice was becoming a favorite fantasy football pick for experts prior to this news, but as he'll miss a significant portion of the season, he'll likely fall in drafts. His value was based widely on his production in the first three games of 2024, where he put up 24 catches for 288 yards and two touchdowns on 29 targets.
Extrapolated over a full season, those numbers would put Rice at 136 receptions, 1,632 yards, and 11.4 TDs. Although it was a smal sample, those are significant numbers, especially when QB Patrick Mahomes is your quarterback.
Especially as WR Xavier Worthy continues to build rapport with Mahomes, it could take some time for Rice to reintegrate back in the offense after his suspension, meaning it could take nearly half of the season to see him at 100%.
Expect Rice to fall around WR22 or so — near DK Metcalf and Tetairoa McMillan — in fantasy football rankings with the suspension looming. Rice is also coming off an ACL tear suffered in Week 4 in 2024, which is not as impactful as the suspension, but does add reason for concern.
New to PrizePicks? Sign up here to get $50 instantly in Lineups after your first $5+ Lineup.
QB Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Football Outlook
Although Rice does add a reliable target for Mahomes that helps the Chiefs rely more heavily on the pass, based on last year's results, Rice's presence doesn't have a large impact on Mahomes' fantasy football outlook.
In three games with Rice in the fold in 2024, Mahomes averaged 220 passing yards per game — this was against three of the worst pass defenses in the league in the Ravens, Bengals, and Falcons.
In his remaining 13 regular season games, Mahomes averaged 251.4 yards per game — due in part to the emergence of Xavier Worthy.
All said, it's a minor hindrance for Mahomes, but not enough to adjust your rankings, especially a coach like Andy Reid who is used to adjusting personnel on the fly.
WR Xavier Worthy Fantasy Football Outlook
Second-year WR Xavier Worthy (ADP: WR27) is the biggest beneficiary to the Rice injury, as he now becomes Mahomes' top WR for 4+ weeks after emerging as the team's top WR while Rice was sidelined in 2024.
Worthy finished 2024 with 59 receptions, 638 yards, and 6 TDs, then proceeded to have at least five receptions in all three playoff games, including a 8-167-2 line in the Super Bowl (most of which came in garbage time).
While it took Worthy some time to ramp up and build a rapport, he found it by November. From the Week 11 game on, Worthy hadat least four receptions and 40 yards in every game.
He'll now get at least a few games as the clear WR1 for Mahomes to start the season, boosting his fantasy football value. Behind Worthy, Hollywood Brown should slot in as the WR2, but his minimal impact in the 2025 playoffs is a cause for concern.
TE Travis Kelce Fantasy Football Outlook
While Worthy did become a more reliable receiver down the stretch, Kelce's typically sure hands were an asset for the Chiefs last year after Rice went down.
In the first three games playing with Rice in 2024, Kelce averaged four targets per game — including games against the Ravens and Bengals. He was almost non-existent in these games.
Following the Rice injury, Kelce only had one game with four targets the rest of the season, averaging 9.2 per game, and getting 10+ targets in six separate games.
While Kelce is no longer the same catch-and-run threat he used to be, he'll be the sure hands that Mahomes will go to when he needs to move the chains while Rice is sidelined.
Make Fantasy Football Picks on PrizePicks
While Rice will return to his status as a top WR2 for fantasy when he returns from suspension, there's a lot of impact around him on the Chiefs due to his sentencing from last March.
Expect Mahomes' fantasy value to stay the same, while WR Xavier Worthy and TE Travis Kelce will both get boosts in fantasy football while Rice is suspended. Worthy, however, should continue to make a larger impact once Rice does return.
Think you know how fantasy football players will perform this year? You can cash in on your fantasy football picks on PrizePicks with NFLSZN, the easiest way to play season-long fantasy football.
Just pick More or Less on player's season stats like Mahomes' passing touchdowns or Worthy's receiving touchdowns, and win money if your picks are correct.
