An elite offense will meet a stingy defense when the Purdue Boilermakers (26-8) take on the Michigan Wolverines (31-2) in the Big Ten Championship.
Michigan enters this game as a notable 6.5-point favorite to hoist the Big Ten Tournament trophy, per PrizePicks Team Picks. Can the Boilermakers play spoiler and rain on the Wolverines' parade?
Purdue vs. Michigan tips off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 15, from Chicago, live on CBS.
Below, we’ll break down our Purdue vs. Michigan prediction and picks for Sunday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Purdue vs. Michigan Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Ranked as the No. 1 team in the Preseason AP Top 25 Poll, Purdue has finally played up to preseason expectations in the Big Ten Tournament. While the Boilermakers haven’t lived up to those lofty expectations for most of the season, all could be forgiven with a win today and a deep run in the NCAA Men’s Tournament.
Purdue's been led by maestro PG Braden Smith, who became the second all-time NCAA assist leader on March 12. His 9.0 assists per game rankssecond in the Big Ten. Smith also leads the Boilermakers with 14.0 points per game.
Michigan has enjoyed the season that most experts thought was in store for Purdue, proven by 31-2 and 19-1 Big Ten records. The Wolverines went to Mackey Arena on February 17 and beat the Boilermakers 91-80 in the only matchup of the season.
Michigan star F Yaxel Lendeborg, who hit the game-winning shot vs. Wisconsin last night, is a stat-sheet-stuffer with 14.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.2 steals per game.
This Michigan team is capable of winning more than just a Big Ten title, with “Yes” to win the NCAA Tournament returning a 4x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Purdue vs. Michigan Spread, Over/Under
The Wolverines enter Sunday’s game as 6.5-point favorites, returning a 1.33x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Boilermakers are the underdogs with a 3.33x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines -6.5 (1.96x payout)
- Over/Under: 149.5 (1.92x payout)
- Game Winner Payout: Purdue 3.33x | Michigan 1.33x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Purdue vs. Michigan Prediction on Spread for Big Ten Championship – 3/15/26
Here are some stats to know to help you make your Purdue vs. Michigan prediction on the spread on Sunday, March 15.
- Purdue is 14-20-0 (41.2%) against the spread (ATS) this season, the third-worst covering percentage in the Big Ten.
- The Boilermakers have a history of being bullied by physical teams who can match their length, playing right into Michigan's paws.
- Purdue lost four ranked matchups vs. Michigan, Illinois, Iowa State, and Michigan State. All four of those teams are tall and strong, two traits that Purdue struggles against.
- The Wolverines offensive strength is 2-point efficiency, ranking second nationally with a 61.6% 2-point percentage.
- According to Bart Torvik, Purdue is a woeful 242nd nationally in 2-point defense, a brutal metric to have against this Michigan team.
Purdue vs. Michigan Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/15/26
Here are two of the top Purdue vs. Michigan picks to target for Sunday, March 15, on PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by Purdue G Braden Smith and Michigan C Aday Mara.
Purdue G Braden Smith vs. Michigan Projection: 1.5 3-Pointers Made
- Michigan plays a defensive scheme that clogs the paint and allows opponents to shoot 3-pointers, relying on their speed, length, and athleticism to contest perimeter shots.
- As a result, they rank 265th nationally in 3-point rate allowed (41.7%).
- This is a great spot for Braden Smith to let his 3-ball fly — especially considering Purdue is a 6.5-point underdog. There is a good chance Purdue will need to fire from the 3-point line to stay competitive.
- Since this is technically a road game for both teams playing on a neutral court, it’s worth noting that Smith shoots 5.8 3-pointers per game on the road, as opposed to just 3.7 at home.
- Smith converted 2-of-6 shots from 3-point land vs. Michigan this season.
- This is a big-time pace-up game for the Boilermakers, who rank 322nd nationally in tempo, compared to Michigan 20th.
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Michigan C Aday Mara vs. Purdue Projection: 22.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Mara has been a man possessed in his last two games, going for 17-7-1 (25 PRA) in the quarterfinals, following that up with 16-8-2 (26 PRA) on Saturday.
- His great play has led to 28 and 30 minutes in the big man's last two games, well up from his season average of 22.8. Michigan may specifically need his length today vs. a solid Purdue frontcourt led by PF Trey-Kauffman Renn and C Oscar Cluff.
- As mentioned, Purdue ranks 242nd nationally in 2-point percentage (53.2%).
- This is music to Mara's ears, who exclusively shoots 2-pointers at an impressive 67% clip.
- In his only matchup vs. Purdue this season, Mara got in foul trouble and played just 18 minutes. He still had more than this 22.5 projection with 10-11-3 (24 PRA).
Make Purdue vs. Michigan Picks on PrizePicks
The last game of an electric conference tournament season is upon us, and it’s set up to be a fun one. Purdue vs. Michigan picks for Big Ten ball are just one of many ways hoops fans can get in on the daily college basketball action.
You can make your Purdue vs. Michigan picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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