The regional finals of the NCAA Tournament feature two chalk matchups between No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. One of those clashes will take place on Saturday, March 28, between the No. 2 seed Purdue Boilermakers (30-8) and No. 1 seed Arizona Wildcats (35-2).
For tonight’s collision at 8:49 p.m. ET on TBS and truTV, PrizePicks Team Picks lists Arizona as the favorite with its 1.38x payout if it wins. Who will win the West region and advance to the national semifinals in Indianapolis?
Let’s break down the matchup, make a Purdue vs. Arizona prediction for college basketball projections, and circle player picks on PrizePicks.
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Purdue vs. Arizona Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Both teams are as hot as fish grease, with Purdue ripping off seven consecutive wins. Arizona, meanwhile, is on a 12-game winning streak.
This has not led to consistent against the spread (ATS) success, though, as the Boilermakers are 4-3 and the Wildcats are 7-5 ATS during their win streaks.
Purdue failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites vs. No. 11 seed Texas in the regional semifinals, needing a last-second bucket in its 79-77 win. The Boilermakers are 2-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament.
Arizona is also 2-1 ATS over its last three games, but its only failed cover was by half a point in a 78-66 win vs. No. 9 seed Utah State. Plus, the Wildcats come off a dominant 109-88 dub vs. No. 4 seed Arkansas as 8.5-point favorites.
Purdue vs. Arizona Spread, Over/Under
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Arizona is a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday, featuring a 1.38x payout if it wins. Purdue is firmly in the underdog role with its 3.12x payout if it wins.
Tonight’s over/under has the highest mark for the regional finals with a 152.5 total on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats -5.5
- Over/Under: 152.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Purdue 3.12x | Arizona 1.38x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Purdue vs. Arizona Prediction on Over/Under for NCAA Tournament – 3/28/26
The over is 7-3 in Purdue’s last 10 games and 4-1 for Arizona’s past five matches. The two are combined for a 5-1 over record in the NCAA Tournament, with the Wildcats carrying the only under.
While the Boilermakers are in the 90th percentile for Bart Torvik’s slowest adjusted tempos, they still average 30.0 made field goals (96th percentile) and 59.7 shots per game (68th percentile). Plus, Purdue allows 25.7 converted field goals per contest (58th percentile) while ranking in the 85th percentile of defensive rebounding rate.
This shifts our focus to Arizona’s ability to generate second-chance points, proven by its elite 38.3% offensive rebounding percentage (99th percentile). Plenty of field goal attempts could be on the table, with the Wildcats tallying 60.6 shots per game (81st percentile) and sitting in the 87th percentile for the quickest adjusted tempos.
Purdue racks up 82.1 points per game (91st percentile), compared to U of A’s 86.7 per-game average (98th percentile). Bart Torvik tabs the Boilermakers (first) and Wildcats (sixth) in the top six for adjusted offensive efficiency.
Purdue vs. Arizona Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/28/26
Here are the top Purdue vs. Arizona picks to target for Saturday, March 28, on PrizePicks. Today’s college basketball picks are headlined by Purdue G C.J. Cox and Arizona F Ivan Kharchenkov.
Purdue G C.J. Cox vs. Arizona Projection: 1.5 3-pointers Made
- Arizona has an elite interior defense that’s in the 98th percentile of close-2 shot distribution allowed, but it gives up 23.6 3-point shots per game on the perimeter (42nd percentile).
- C.J. Cox has converted 6 of 12 3-point attempts (50.0%) in the NCAA Tournament.
- His 4.0 attempted treys per game over the last three outings is on pace with 4.2 per outing on the season.
- Cox has recorded 2.0 made triples per game in the NCAA Tournament — slightly elevated from 1.6 per appearance this season.
- He’s posted 26.5 minutes per game in his last 10 games, surpassing 24.4 for the season.
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Arizona F Ivan Kharchenkov vs. Purdue Projection: 11 Points
- According to EvanMiya, Purdue G Fletcher Loyer (1.83) has the second-lowest Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR) in the Boilermakers’ starting lineup.
- Ivan Kharchenkov stands at 6 foot 7, giving him a height advantage over 6-foot-5 Loyer. Plus, his 220-pound frame could outmuscle Loyer, who weighs in at 180 pounds.
- The German freshman shoots only 32.3% on 3-pointers, compared to 58.3% on 2-pointers.
- Purdue allows opponents to convert 53.3% of 2-point looks (32nd percentile).
- Kharchenkov posted 13.4 PPG in his last five games and 12.7 PPG in the NCAA Tournament.
Make Purdue vs. Arizona Picks on PrizePicks
In a matchup between two of college basketball’s most efficient offenses, will Purdue vs. Arizona cruise to another over for regional finals picks? The Boilermakers may look to lean on 3-point shooting, while the Wildcats pursue their usual dominance around the rim.
You can make your Purdue vs. Arizona picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news through the NCAA Tournament.
