No. 3 Illinois (24-8), one of nine Big Ten teams in the field, looks to avoid a first-round upset vs. No. 14 Penn (18-11) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Illinois is listed as a 25.5-point favorite on the spread vs. Penn at 9:25 p.m. ET, televised on TNT.
Let’s look at our Penn vs. Illinois prediction on the spread for Thursday’s tussle at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina.
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Penn vs. Illinois Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
These teams last met in Las Vegas in 2001 as Illinois rallied for a 78-71 victory.
The Fighting Illini sit seventh in efficiency, according to KenPom — their highest ranking since 2021. The Quakers (18-11) finished third in the Ivy but managed to knock off Harvard and Yale in the conference tournament to capture an automatic bid.
In the last five tournament appearances, Illinois is 4-1 straight-up and 3-2 against the spread (ATS) in the first round. Last season, the Illini rolled past Xavier, 86-73, as four-point favorites.
The Quakers qualified for the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018, when Penn hung around with No. 1 seed Kansas in a 76-60 first-round defeat.
Penn vs. Illinois Spread, Over/Under
The Fighting Illini enter this matchup as 25.5-point favorites, returning a 1.01x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Quakers are underdogs with a 16.66x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Illinois -25.5
- Over/Under: 152.5
- Game Winner Payout: Penn 16.66x | Illinois 1.01x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
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Penn vs. Illinois Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/19/26
Here are some key stats to know before locking in your Penn vs. Illinois first-round prediction for the spread on Thursday, March 19, on PrizePicks.
- Penn posted a 19-9 ATS record, the best of any Ivy League school.
- The Quakers have covered eight straight games, including five in the underdog role.
- Penn grabbed a pair of covers as double-digit dogs in non-conference losses to George Mason (83-79) and Rutgers (70-69).
- Illinois put together an 8-6 ATS mark as a favorite of 10 or more points and won all 14 of those outings.
- The Fighting Illini own the lowest defensive turnover rate in the country at 11.6%.
- Head coach Brad Underwood’s squad is second in KenPom's offensive rating, while ranking 18th in 2-point percentage (58.2%).
- Following a 12-game winning streak from December to February, the Illini limped to a 4-5 record in the past nine outings.
- Penn is the 10th-best 3-point shooting team in the nation (38.7%), capped off by knocking down 14-of-28 treys (50.0%) vs. Yale in the Ivy League championship.
- Penn’s biggest concern could be 2-point shooting, converting 46.2% of its attempts (346th). However, Illinois allowed three of its last four opponents to hit at least 60% of its 2-point tries.
Make Penn vs. Illinois Picks on PrizePicks
The Quakers are one of the biggest underdogs in Thursday’s NCAA Tournament action. Can Penn pull off a massive upset over an Illinois team that has struggled of late?
You can make your Penn vs. Illinois picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news all the way through the NCAA Tournament.
