Patriots vs. Bears Prediction, Spread, NFL Picks for Thursday Night Football

Week 7’s edition of Thursday Night Football will feature the New England Patriots (4-2) against the Chicago Bears (4-2) at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. The Bears enter as 2.5-point home favorites, returning a 1.58x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks.

Following a shaky start to the season, the Patriots come into Thursday on a three-game win streak, most recently taking out the New York Jets at home by a final of 26-19. The Bears finally got QB Caleb Williams back in Week 6, helping the offense get back on track in a 31-23 victory over the Atlanta Falcons.

With both teams playing well, who comes out on top tonight? 

Below, we’ll break down our Patriots vs. Bears prediction and picks for Week 7’s Thursday Night Football game tonight, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Patriots vs. Bears prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!

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Patriots vs. Bears Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Thursday Night Football Week 7 – October 22

The Bears enter Thursday’s game as 2.5-point home favorites against the Patriots, returning a 1.58x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks – or an estimated $158 on a $100 entry.

Here are the full payouts for the Patriots vs. Bears game on PrizePicks.

‍PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. 

Make your Patriots vs. Bears prediction on the spread, over/under, and more on PrizePicks!

Patriots QB Drake Maye continues to distance himself from the abysmal play that plagued him in the opening weeks, completing 18 of 32 passes for 235 yards and 3 TDs against the Jets.

After throwing 1 TD to 6 INTs across Weeks 1-3, Maye has passed for 10 TDs (and rushed for a TD) with just a single INT over his last three games.

For the season, New England remains slightly below average in points per game (22.7), but it's up to seventh in yards per game (374.2). The team is also a respectable 13th in offensive DVOA, per FTN.

The Patriots have been beset by injuries, but they did get WR A.J. Brown back in Week 6. While the star wideout had a forgettable day, catching just 3 of 10 targets for 27 yards with multiple drops, he should give this offense a boost as he gets healthier and shakes the rust off.

He’ll be needed going forward, too, as New England placed fellow WR Romeo Doubs on injured reserve this week.  

The biggest concern for the Pats’ attack is their banged-up offensive line, as they’ll be without starting LG Alijah Vera-Tucker and starting RG Ben Brown.

Defensively, New England has performed well, ranking sixth in both PPG (18.8) and YPG (300.8). While the team will be without starting CB Carlton Davis III for another game, CB Christian Gonzalez remains healthy after making his return last week.

Gonzalez helped the Patriots hold top Jets WR Garrett Wilson to 44 receiving yards, his second-lowest mark this year.

Meanwhile, the Bears welcomed Williams back from a three-week absence on Sunday, and he was brutally efficient against the Falcons, completing 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards and a TD. His strong play helped his backfield to 3 short TDs in the red zone.

Despite some up-and-down performances from this offense, particularly when Williams was sidelined, the Bears are 12th in PPG (25.0) and fifth in YPG (388.3). RB Kyle Monangai remains sidelined, leaving RB D’Andre Swift and RB Roschon Johnson as the top backs on Thursday night.  

At first glance, Chicago has mostly performed well on defense, as it's given up the sixth-fewest PPG (19.8) and seventh-fewest YPG (302.3). However, the Bears conceded 31 points to the Green Bay Packers in Week 5 and then they beat Atlanta by just 8 points despite carrying a 31-7 lead in the fourth quarter. 

Patriots vs. Bears Prediction on Spread for Thursday Night Football – 10/22/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Patriots vs. Bears pick against the spread for Thursday, October 22.

• Over the last three weeks, the Patriots’ offense has posted the fifth-most EPA/play (0.190) and the third-highest success rate (49.1%), per RBSDM.
• Even with Maye’s early-season struggles, he’s fifth in adjusted EPA/play (0.249). Williams ranks seventh in the metric (0.247). 
• New England is 11th in defensive DVOA, while Chicago is 16th.
• The Bears’ defense has benefited from facing by far the fewest plays per game (50.2). This is due in large part to the offense leading the NFL in time of possession percentage (60.03%).
• If New England’s D is able to get Chicago’s offense off the field, it could take advantage of a defense that’s tied for allowing the most yards per play (6.0).
• The Bears’ defense is also only 25th in rush EPA/play allowed (-0.057) and 22nd in rush success rate (41.2%). This coincides with the team ranking 28th in run stop win rate (27%), per ESPN.
• Both teams are inside the top 10 in pass rush win rate. Chicago sits sixth (57%), and New England is ninth (53%).
• After being sacked 9 times in his first three games, Maye's been sacked only twice over the last three. He wasn’t sacked at all by the Jets last week despite multiple starting linemen going down.
• Williams has the sixth-highest sack rate (9.0%) this season.  

Make your Patriots vs. Bears picks now for Thursday’s NFL game.

Patriots vs. Bears Picks, Player Stats for TNF on PrizePicks: 10/22/26

Here are the top Patriots vs. Bears picks to target on Thursday, October 22. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include DeMario Douglas and Luther Burden.

Patriots WR DeMario Douglas vs. Bears: 38.5 Rec Yards

• Recent injuries to the Pats’ wideout room could be leading to an increased role for Douglas. Over the past two games, he’s tallied 65 and 86 receiving yards.
• Per PFF, Douglas is averaging 3.21 yards per route run over his last two games.
• With Doubs going out with an injury early against the Jets, Douglas saw a season-high 8 targets, the second most on the team behind Brown’s 10 looks.
• The New England WR has also scored 3 TDs over the past two weeks, another promising sign that the Pats will continue to feature him. Per ESPN, he has 6 end-zone targets despite inconsistent usage earlier on, which is tied for the fourth most this season.
• The Bears are allowing the 11th-most receiving yards per game to WRs, according to Pro Football Reference.

Add DeMario Douglas + Patriots to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Bears WR Luther Burden vs. Patriots: 58.5 Rec Yards

• Despite Burden surprisingly playing less than half the snaps in Week 6, he led the team in targets (8) and logged a season-high 95 receiving yards. 
• He’s now gone over 60 yards in four of his six games despite half of those games being played by backup QBs.
• Burden leads the Bears with a 22.2% target share, per SumerSports. He hasn’t seen fewer than 6 targets in a game since Week 1.
• This matchup has a 50.5-point total, suggesting that this could turn into a shootout. A back-and-forth game would make it less likely that Burden sees a dip in snaps like he did last week with the Bears getting out to a big lead over the Falcons.
• Among wideouts with at least 30 targets, Burden ranks 16th in yards per route run (2.19). 

Add Luther Burden + Bears to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Patriots vs. Bears Picks on PrizePicks

We’re getting a compelling Thursday Night Football matchup between a pair of teams trending upward. Can the Chicago Bears get the victory on home turf, or will the New England Patriots extend their winning streak?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Patriots vs. Bears picks on PrizePicks now for Week 7 and earn real money if you're right.

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