The NFL's Week 7 slate opens Thursday night with a battle between two 4-2 teams looking to return to the postseason, as the New England Patriots visit the Chicago Bears. Both teams are coming off Week 6 wins and now square off at Soldier Field, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime.
The Bears enter as 2.5-point favorites on the spread, via PrizePicks, returning a 1.58x payout if they win. Who comes out with a victory in this interconference clash?
Below, we’ll break down our Patriots vs. Bears prediction and picks, including a pick against the spread from PrizePicks for Thursday Night Football.
Make your Patriots vs. Bears prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!
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Patriots vs. Bears Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Thursday Night Football – October 22
The Bears enter Thursday’s game as 2.5-point favorites against the Patriots, returning a 1.58x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright.
Here are the full payouts for the Patriots vs. Bears game on Thursday Night Football, via PrizePicks.
Make your Patriots vs. Bears spread or over/under on PrizePicks.
Payouts show potential returns on correct predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.
The Bears are a different offense with a healthy QB Caleb Williams. In three games with Williams healthy, Chicago's averaged 31.0 points and 405.7 yards per game compared to 19.0 PPG and 371.0 YPG without him.
That includes one game against Minnesota where the Vikings shut down everything and held Chicago to 3 points and 297 yards.
Against the Falcons in Week 6, Williams completed 30 of 36 passes overall, including going a perfect 24-for-24 for 248 yards in a clean pocket. Williams also has the league's best-performing backfield behind him, as the Bears average 160.7 rushing YPG.
The Patriots have won three straight since a 1-2 start. They did outlast the Buffalo Bills in a shootout, as they did last year, but the other wins this year are vs. the Jets, Raiders, and a sloppy win vs. the Steelers.
Chicago is a step up in class from the New York team that New England just beat at home, entering with a top-10 offense and defense in terms of total yards.
QB Drake Maye has looked great the last three games, but the Jets are the only top-15 defense he's faced and beaten over the last two regular seasons. He’s up to fifth in EPA/play but 13th in passer rating at 92.8.
The Patriots' offensive line also has injury issues and takes on a Bears defense that had 5 sacks vs. the Falcons last week. Even WR A.J. Brown's return failed to provide an offensive spark, as he caught only 3 of 10 targets from Maye.
Make your Patriots vs. Bears picks on PrizePicks now.
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Patriots vs. Bears Prediction on Spread for Thursday Night Football – 10/22/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Patriots vs. Bears pick against the spread for Thursday Night Football.
- The Bears are 4-2 against the spread with a 3.4-point average cover margin, which is sixth-best in the NFL.
- Chicago is 16-9 ATS since head coach Ben Johnson arrived prior to the 2025 season, the second-best cover percentage behind the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks.
- Patriots guards Ben Brown and Alijah Vera-Tucker, along with OT Morgan Moses, all left last week’s game with injuries. The Bears enter second in defensive sack rate, per 4th and Data.
- With Williams, the Bears’ offensive EPA/play is +0.051, while it was -0.027 in the three games he missed (RBSDM).
- In six games against the Chargers, Texans, Broncos, Seahawks (twice), and Steelers since the start of last postseason, Maye is averaging 202.3 passing YPG with 7 TDs and 8 INTs. The Bears enter with the seventh-best defense through six weeks, allowing 302.3 total YPG.
Make your Patriots vs. Bears picks now for Thursday’s NFL game.
Make Patriots vs. Bears Picks on PrizePicks
Which playoff hopeful will get to 5-2 on the season? The Patriots are looking for their fourth straight win, while the Bears aim to keep pace in the ultra-competitive NFC North.
Don't wait until kickoff — make your Patriots vs. Bears picks on PrizePicks now for Week 7 and earn real money if you're right.
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