Paraguay vs. France Prediction, World Cup Picks, Lineups for Round of 16

Following a massive upset over Germany in penalty kicks, Paraguay grabbed their second World Cup knockout stage win, joining 2010’s victory over Japan. Paraguay is scheduled to take on another European giant in France for the World Cup Round of 16, kicking off on FOX at 5:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, July 4. 

Similar to the Round of 32, Paraguay is a massive underdog with a 9.09x payout to advance compared to France’s 1.04x, per PrizePicks Team Picks. Paraguay took advantage of an out-of-sorts Germany, but France looks as sharp as a tack with a 4-0-0 record and +11 goal differential.

Does Paraguay have more magic left against the favorite to win World Cup 2026? Below, we’ll break down our Paraguay vs. France prediction and picks for Saturday’s World Cup Round of 16 match, including the spread, total goals, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Paraguay vs. France prediction and World Cup Round of 16 picks on PrizePicks now!

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Paraguay vs. France World Cup Round of 16 Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, July 4

How to watch Paraguay vs. France: FOX (English) / Telemundo (Spanish)

Kickoff Time: 5:00 p.m. ET

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia Stadium), Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Saturday’s Round of 16 matchup is certainly a David vs. Goliath situation, as France has the shortest payout to win the World Cup (2.56x). Furthermore, WorldCup2026Predictions give Paraguay just a 7% probability to advance to the quarterfinals.

Paraguay does have some good news entering this matchup, with MF Diego Gómez returning from a one-match suspension for yellow card accumulation in the group stage. 

However, ST Julio Enciso, who scored Paraguay’s goal vs. Germany, left the Round of 32 match at the 57th minute with a lower-body injury. Enciso has tallied 1 goal, 2 assists, and 1.66 chances created per 90 (81st percentile) at the World Cup, per FotMob.

Keep an eye on his injury status, as this would be a brutal blow for Paraguay, who has totaled a measly 1.5 expected goals (45th) at World Cup 2026.

La Albirroja has posted just 2.0 shots on target per match (44th), opting to sit in a low block with a 31.2% average possession (47th). If Paraguay sticks with this strategy, they could face a French assault, as Les Bleus boasts a terrifying attack with 9.2 xG (second), 8.5 shots on target per match (first), and 19 big chances (second).

France’s front line is simply as good as it gets, led by Kylian Mbappé at striker while Ousmane Dembélé fills the right winger and Bradley Barcola mans the left winger. Mbappé boasts 6 goals, Dembélé totaled a hat trick on Matchday 3, and Barcola, who found the back of the net in the Round of 32, seems to have earned the starting left winger spot over Désiré Doué. 

Manager Didier Deschamps found the solution for Michael Olise following Matchday 1, putting one of the world’s best in a playmaking No. 10 position. It’s paid off, with Olise tallying 5 assists — which is only 4 assists behind Lionel Messi setting the career World Cup record (9) on Friday night. Further, Olise has piled up 2.92 chances (87th percentile) and 1.46 big chances per 90 (97th percentile).

According to Opta Analyst, Olise has a World Cup-best 11 through balls over four appearances. The second-highest mark of this tournament is only 5 through balls. He’s the maestro of France’s extraordinary attack.

Paraguay logged back-to-back clean sheets to cap group stage play, followed by holding Germany to only 1 goal. The Germans’ 8.3 xG is the seventh-best mark following the Round of 32, making Paraguay’s defensive performance an impressive feat.

Paraguay vs. France: Favorite to Win, Spread, Total Goals – Saturday, July 4

France continues to look like the best team in the World Cup, and it’s reflected in the payouts for the Round of 16, as Les Bleus have a 1.04x payout to advance and a 1.53x payout to cover the -1.5 spread. 

Paraguay’s game will likely be sitting in a low block and waiting for their moment to strike, but Saturday’s 2.38x payout for both teams to score suggests La Albirroja have a tall task ahead.

PrizePicks Team Picks features payouts for teams to advance, the 90-minute winner, spread, total goals, and both teams to score for Paraguay vs. France.

To Advance Payout: Paraguay – 9.09x | France – 1.04x

90-Minute Winner: Paraguay – 14.28x | Tie – 6.25x | France – 1.14x 

Spread: France -1.5 (1.53x Payout) 

Total Goals: 2.5 (Over – 1.58x | Under – 2.27x)

Both Teams to Score: Yes 2.38x | No 1.53x

Make your Paraguay vs. France prediction on spread or goals on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Team Picks markets are settled after full-time (90 minutes + stoppage). Extra time and penalties are not included. 

Paraguay vs. France Prediction on Spread for World Cup Round of 16

Following Paraguay’s shocking upset of Germany in the Round of 32, is there more in the tank for Saturday’s World Cup Round of 16 match vs. France? Let’s look at stats and trends for Paraguay vs. France, aiding your World Cup knockout predictions for PrizePicks.

• Paraguay did an excellent job of surviving Germany’s 21 shots, 6 shots on target, 43 touches in the box, and 1.6 xGs.
• Across the World Cup, Paraguay has surrendered 20.3 shots (fourth-most) and 5.5 shots on target per match (12th-most). However, that’s paired with giving up only 58.0% of shots in the box (16th) and 0.07 xG per shot (tied for third).
• Still, if Paraguay continues to allow this kind of volume, they’re playing with fire, as France has maintained a 17.8% conversion rate (seventh) on 18.3 shots per match (seventh).
• AM Michael Olise could especially pose a problem with his 11 through balls that can break a low block. This attack’s spacing and movement have been excellent, making it more than capable against Paraguay’s compact shape.
• France has a solid 56.7% average possession (15th) compared to Paraguay’s 31.2% (second-lowest). Assuming Les Bleus dominate the ball, that should mean even more opportunities for the strongest attack at World Cup 2026.
• Don’t sleep on the French defense either, as it’s allowed only 2.3 shots on target per match (sixth) and 0.89 xG (tied for 13th).
• Similar to the Round of 32, Paraguay will likely wait to burn France with direct balls on the counter-attack. It worked against Germany’s ultra-aggressive high-press system, but France isn’t as aggressive on defense, typically sitting in a disciplined mid-block to avoid being scorched too harshly by a counter-attack.
• Paraguay’s set pieces are a potential route to scoring, with a 49.4 xG% in the split. However, France has yielded only a 17.0 xG% (13th) and 21.4% shot rate (12th) on set pieces.
• Les Bleus has won their last three games by 3 goals. Paraguay’s compact low block may not be enough to slow this attack, and France’s defense seems to excel in the right areas to take away Paraguay’s few chances to score.

Lock in your Paraguay vs. France prediction for the 2026 World Cup now!

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Paraguay vs. France Lineups for World Cup Round of 16 – Saturday, July 4

Here are the projected Paraguay vs. France lineups for Saturday’s World Cup Round of 16  match in the knockout stage. Lineups are not official and are based on historical data.

Paraguay Lineup vs. France Today

Projected Formation: 4-4-2

• Goalkeeper: Orlando Gill
• Defense: Júnior Alonso, Gustavo Gómez, Gustavo Velázquez, Juan Cáceres
• Midfield: Matías Galarza, Mauricio, Andrés Cubas, Miguel Almirón
• Forwards: Julio Enciso, Gabriel Ávalos

France Lineup vs. Paraguay Today

Projected Formation: 4-2-3-1

• Goalkeeper: Mike Maignan
• Defense: Lucas Digne, William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano, Jules Koundé
• Midfield: Adrien Rabiot, Aurélien Tchouaméni
• Attacking Midfield: Michael Olise 
• Wingers: Bradley Barcola, Ousmane Dembélé
• Striker: Kylian Mbappé

Paraguay vs. France Picks, Player Stats for World Cup Round of 16: 7/4/26

With France likely dominating possession in this match, that could mean plenty of work for their attackers, including Kylian Mbappé and Michael Olise, for Paraguay vs. France player picks on PrizePicks. 

France ST Kylian Mbappé Pick vs. Paraguay – 3.5 Shots (Discount)

• PrizePicks is offering a special Discount on Kylian Mbappé’s shots, dropping his original 5 projection to 3.5 for a limited time.
• Mbappé’s been at the center of this attack with 6 goals (second behind Lionel Messi’s 7), 5.4 shots per 90 (98th percentile), and 3.3 shots on target per 90 (98th percentile).
• Paraguay concedes 40.0 touches in the box per match (fourth-most), and Mbappé has logged a healthy 8.0 touches in the box per 90 (88th percentile). If he continues to get close to goal, more shots should be ahead.
• His 1.8 successful dribbles per 90 (95th percentile) is another path for Mbappé to carve space to shoot against a low block.
• He’s surpassed this Discount in every World Cup match, reaching at least 4 shots in four consecutive appearances. 
• Mbappé racked up 8 shots against Iraq, who finished the group stage with 19.7 shots conceded per match (sixth-most). Paraguay has allowed even more, giving up 20.3 shots per match (fourth-most).

Combine France + Kylian Mbappé World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks

France AM Michael Olise Pick vs. Paraguay – 5.5 Crosses

• Paraguay opts for a compact low block, often forcing the opposition to play more on the wings paired with plenty of crosses.
• As mentioned, Michael Olise has been the contributor of this attack by tallying 1.5 assists (99th percentile), 53.8 successful passes (93rd percentile), and 1.5 big chances created per 90 (97th percentile).
• Sweden played in a low block vs. France, and it led to Olise attempting 8 crosses. 
• France also controlled possession 61-39 with an absurd 25 shots vs. Sweden, contributing to Olise’s 69 pass attempts — his top mark of the World Cup.
• The Round of 32’s 3-0 win over Sweden could be a sign of what’s to come. If Paraguay continues to sit in their low block while conceding possession, that should mean more high volume for Olise, who comes off his highest workload yet to open the knockout stage.

Combine France + Michael Olise World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks

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Make Your Paraguay vs. France Prediction on PrizePicks

Will Paraguay repeat their extraordinary defensive performance against Germany? France is a major step up in quality as the best team in the World Cup thus far. Paraguay last made the World Cup quarterfinals in 2010, while France chases their fourth consecutive quarterfinals appearance.

Don’t wait until lock. Make your Paraguay vs. France picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right on every World Cup game.

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