Packers vs. Vikings Prediction, Spread, NFL Week 1 Picks – Sunday, September 13

The 2026 NFL season is finally here, and we are greeted with the prized jewel of the afternoon slate: an exciting NFC North matchup at 4:25 p.m. ET as the Green Bay Packers travel to Minneapolis to take on the Minnesota Vikings.

Both teams are coming off campaigns with similar records but had very different 2025 seasons. Green Bay went 9-7-1 and earned the NFC's No. 7 seed before falling to Chicago in the Wild Card Round, while Minnesota finished 9-8 and narrowly missed the playoffs.

Can the Vikings take advantage of their home-field advantage and start the Kyler Murray era with a victory, or will Jordan Love and the Packers spoil the Vikings' party at home? Minnesota enters the matchup as a 2.5-point home favorite with the total sitting at 45.5 points on PrizePicks.

Below, we’ll break down our Packers vs. Vikings prediction and picks for Sunday’s NFL game in Week 1, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.

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Packers vs. Vikings Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Sunday, September 13

The Packers were led by QB Jordan Love a year ago, and he averaged 225.4 passing yards per game while throwing for 23 TDs and just 6 INTs. Love enters his fourth season as Green Bay's full-time starter and remains the centerpiece of Matt LaFleur's offense. The Packers' attack was one of the NFL's more efficient units last season, finishing 2025 with a 0.07 EPA/play (fourth), per SumerSports.

One of the biggest questions entering Week 1 is how Green Bay will replace RB Josh Jacobs, who is unavailable for Sunday's game. The Packers will lean on a committee of RBs, headlined by MarShawn Lloyd, while Love could be asked to shoulder more of the offensive responsibility.

Minnesota, meanwhile, is beginning a new era with QB Kyler Murray taking over as the starter, and expectations are high for what he may look like working under noted QB whisperer HC Kevin O’Connell. Murray brings a new dimension compared to previous Vikings QBs with his ability to extend plays with his legs. During his seven seasons with Arizona, Murray surpassed 3,700 passing yards four times and 500 rushing yards three times.

The Vikings' defense remains the biggest reason to believe in Minnesota. Brian Flores' unit finished 2025 ranked third in total defense and tied for fourth in the NFL with 49 sacks. Minnesota blitzed a ton in obvious pass-rushing situations and was consistently rewarded for doing so.

Green Bay's major concern is its overall roster health. The Packers will be without star DE Micah Parsons on top of Jacobs.

This is one of the NFL's oldest rivalries. Green Bay leads the regular-season series 66-60-3, but Minnesota has won the last two meetings, including a 16-3 victory in the 2025 season finale.

Packers vs. Vikings Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, September 13

Minnesota enters Sunday's game as a 2.5-point favorite against Green Bay, via PrizePicks. The Vikings return a 1.72x payout with a victory.

Here are the full payouts for Packers vs. Vikings on PrizePicks.

Make your Packers vs. Vikings prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks.

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Packers vs. Vikings Prediction on Spread – 9/13/26

Here are the key stats and predictions behind our Packers vs. Vikings prediction on the spread for Sunday, September 13.

• As mentioned above, the Vikings generated pressure on 34.1% of their snaps when blitzing and blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL last season (46.2%).
• That pressure could prove especially important against a Green Bay offensive line that has multiple players dealing with injuries entering Week 1.
• Jacobs rushed for 929 yards and 13 TDs last season. Removing the Packers' leading rusher puts additional pressure on Love and the passing game to sustain drives. That'd play right into the hands of a Vikings defense that gave up -0.17 EPA/pass in 2025, fifth in the sport.
• On the other side, Green Bay's defense finished 2025 ranked in the bottom half of the sport in EPA/play both through the air and on the ground. That's a concern going up against arguably the best WR in the NFL, Justin Jefferson.
• Green Bay's defense finished 2025 with a 36.6% Next Gen Stats pressure rate, eighth in the NFL, but much of that came with Parsons in the lineup. Without him, their pressure rates cratered towards the end of the season.
• If the PPackerscannot consistently generate pressure, Minnesota should have enough time to let its new QB attack the Packers' weakness (the secondary) with their offensive strength (receivers).

Lock in your Packers vs. Vikings prediction on PrizePicks before Sunday's NFL game.

Packers vs. Vikings Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/13/26

Here are the top Packers vs. Vikings picks to target on Sunday, September 13. Today's NFL picks for PrizePicks include Jordan Love and Justin Jefferson.

Packers QB Jordan Love vs. Vikings: 239.5 Pass Yards

• Love has been particularly effective against pressure and ranked seventh among qualifying QBs in both yards per attempt and EPA per dropback against the blitz over the last two seasons, per Fantasy Pros.
• He also generated the second-most total EPA (105.6) among all NFL QBs last season, per SumerSports.
• The Packers finished 2025 notching 0.19 EPA/pass (third), showing an offense that can create efficient passing plays even when the running game isn't carrying the load.
• As 2.5-point road underdogs, the game script may play out in favor of Love throwing the ball more, adding to the potential volume for the Packers QB to rack up some big-time yardage.

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Vikings WR Justin Jefferson vs. Packers: 73.5 Rec Yards

• Jefferson remains the centerpiece of Minnesota's passing attack, finishing 2025 with yet another 1,000+ yard season despite dealing with inconsistent QB play throughout the season.
• The matchup against Green Bay is much more favorable from an efficiency standpoint than the Packers' raw passing yardage ranking suggests. Green Bay finished 2025 ranked 22nd in EPA/pass allowed (0.05), giving Jefferson an opportunity to exploit a defense that was considerably less efficient against the pass than its overall reputation suggested.
• Jefferson started 2025 off hot, clearing this projection in six of his first seven games. He also performed well against the Packers in his most recent outing, the last game of the 2025 regular season, where he posted 101 receiving yards.
• The volume could be plentiful for Jefferson, who finished last season with 141 targets, almost double that of the next Vikings player (Jordan Addison, 79).
• Jefferson averaged 12.5 yards per reception in 2025 and recorded 12 catches of at least 20 yards, giving him multiple paths to clear this projection rather than relying solely on his massive target volume.

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Make Packers vs. Vikings Picks on PrizePicks

Football is back in America, and the first NFL Sunday of the year is finally here. Green Bay and Minnesota open the 2026 season with an important NFC North showdown that could have major division and playoff implications in about four months.

The Packers enter the season with Love at the helm but will be without Jacobs and Parsons early on. Minnesota, meanwhile, will hope to begin Murray's tenure with a bang in front of their home faithful. Who will come out on top in Minneapolis?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Packers vs. Vikings picks on PrizePicks Team Picks. There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the NFL board, so you can make predictions on yards, touchdowns, and more! Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you're right.

With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available on PrizePicks.

Keep it here with the Playbook for continued NFL picks, predictions, futures, and more as we jump into 2026.