With the arrival of the SEC Tournament semifinals comes a pair of action-packed matchups, and the second outing of Saturday between Ole Miss and Arkansas might be the most intriguing.
While the Razorbacks are heavy 10.5-point favorites ahead of the 3:30 p.m. tip-off on ESPN, the Rebels have played spoiler all tournament long and aim to do it again this weekend.
Below, we’ll break down our Ole Miss vs. Arkansas prediction on spread for Saturday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Prior to the SEC Tournament, it was a tough year for head coach Chris Beard’s Ole Miss squad. On the season, the Rebels own a 15-19 overall record and a 4-14 mark in SEC play.
Since losing 12 of 13 games to close out the regular season, however, Mississippi ripped off wins over Texas, Georgia, and Alabama in the SEC Tournament to reach the semifinals.
Arkansas’ season has been much steadier. Head coach John Calipari’s crew rides the hot hand of star freshman PG Darius Acuff Jr., sitting 24-8 on the year and 13-5 in conference matchups.
Having secured a double-bye in the SEC Tournament, Arkansas took down Oklahoma in Friday’s quarterfinals once it finally had to play.
Since 1949, these two programs have met 87 times on the hardwood. Arkansas owns a 51-36 series lead, including a 94-87 win back on January 7. In that contest, Acuff went for 26 points.
Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Spread, Over/Under
Ole Miss enters Saturday’s game as 10.5-point underdogs, returning a 4.34x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Arkansas is a favorite with a 1.2x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks -10.5
- Over/Under: 158.5
- Game Winner Payout: Rebels 4.34x | Razorbacks 1.2x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Prediction on Spread – 3/14/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Ole Miss vs. Arkansas prediction on spread for Saturday, March 14 on PrizePicks.
- Heading into this game, Ole Miss is 11-9 against the spread as an underdog. Arkansas is an even more impressive 15-6 ATS as a favorite.
- According to KenPom, this is a meeting between the No. 16 team in net rating (Arkansas, +25.76) and the No. 69 program (Ole Miss, +12.22).
- Both teams are remarkably similar in adjusted defensive efficiency, with Arkansas slotting in at 47th and Ole Miss right behind them at 48th.
- It’s the offensive end of the floor that could make the difference. The Razorbacks boast the sixth-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency compared to the Rebels’ 95th ranking.
- Ole Miss fails to generate quality looks on offense, sitting 226th in effective field goal percentage at 50.2%. Arkansas’ 56.4 eFG% is 21st.
- Per Bart Torvik, Mississippi F AJ Storr has the program’s most points over replacement per adjusted game at 2.8. Arkansas has five players at or above that mark.
- Acuff is unquestionably the best player in this clash, posting a 127.7 offensive rating on a 28.3% usage rate.
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