A must-see college football schedule is ahead for Saturday, October 17, and no game holds weight like #4 Ohio State (5-1) vs. #5 Indiana (6-0) at 12:00 p.m. ET on FOX. The Buckeyes are 2.5-point road favorites for the spread, via PrizePicks.
Since Week 2’s fourth-quarter collapse in a 24-23 loss vs. Texas, Ohio State has bounced back with an average margin of +23.0 points per game to open Big Ten play, but its still hunting a signature win. Meanwhile, Indiana has now won 22 consecutive games, dating back to last season’s national championship run.
The class of the Big Ten collides for FOX’s Big Noon. It’s time to dig into our Ohio State vs. Indiana prediction, followed by player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Ohio State vs. Indiana picks on PrizePicks now!
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#4 Ohio State vs. #5 Indiana Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Saturday, October 17
Ohio State is a 2.5-point favorite for the spread, paired with a 1.61x payout to win on PrizePicks — or a $161 payout on a $100 entry if you’re right.
Here are the full payouts for Ohio State vs. Indiana, including winner payouts, the spread, and over/under. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Make your Ohio State vs. Indiana prediction on the winner on PrizePicks!
We’ve got plenty of storylines for this one, and it begins with revenge, as Ohio State attempts to strike back following last season’s 13-10 loss in the Big Ten Championship Game. For Indiana, Saturday’s contest is the biggest home game in program history; it’s the first top-five matchup to take place at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington.
Adding to the stakes, the Buckeyes have the second-shortest payout to win the national championship (5x), compared to the Hoosiers’ sixth-shortest payout (9.09x), per PrizePicks. Both teams are expected to play in the College Football Playoff: OSU (1.19x) and Indiana (1.2x).
Most importantly, one of the Big Ten’s best will be handed its first conference loss on Saturday afternoon. According to PrizePicks, the Scarlet and Gray have the shortest payout to win the Big Ten title (1.66x), followed by IU’s 3.44x. This could be a preview of the Big Ten championship in December.
Of course, this game also features college football’s last two national champs, and each team has plenty of NFL talent once again. For example, Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith is regarded as the top prospect in NFL Mock Draft Database’s 2027 Consensus Big Board, followed by Indiana WRs Charlie Becker (10th) and Nick Marsh (30th).
Last week, the Hoosiers’ 20-17 win at Nebraska was their closest win since defeating Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten title game. Following a 31-14 road top-25 win vs. Iowa, Ohio State took out Maryland 45-16 as 31.5-point favorites in Week 6.
On the injury front, the Buckeyes will be without RB Ja’Kobi Jackson and OG Austin Siereveld, while RT Phillip Daniels and CB Jay Timmons are expected to return following absences. Indiana is mostly healthy, with TE Andrew Barker (1 catch this season) listed as questionable.
With the narratives laid out, let’s dig into the matchup, featuring a prediction for the winner of Ohio State vs. Indiana.
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Ohio State vs. Indiana Prediction on Winner – 10/17/26
Alongside college football’s longest active winning streak of 22 games, Indiana has also won 19 straight home games. The Buckeyes rolled to a 23-3 lead in Austin but were outscored 21-0 to end a 24-23 loss vs. Texas. Road demons can be exorcised on Saturday.
The absences of RB Ja’Kobi Jackson and OG Austin Siereveld cannot be understated for OSU. This is already a run game with questions, featuring 0.07 EPA per rushing attempt (62nd percentile) and a 45.0% rush success rate (57th percentile), per Game on Paper. Indiana isn’t an easy team to run on, yielding a 34.2% rush success rate, and now the Buckeyes are without arguably their best RB and offensive lineman.
Outside of RB Bo Jackson, Ohio State doesn’t have much experience in the backfield, with true freshman RB Legend Bey likely taking some snaps on Saturday. Bey could be OSU’s best big-play threat on the ground, but he has only 11 rush snaps on the season.
The Buckeyes’ success could rely on QB Julian Sayin and WR Jeremiah Smith, who looks to add to his Heisman Trophy campaign with the shortest payout to win the award (1.78x) on PrizePicks. However, Indiana boasts a dangerous 19.1% havoc rate (83rd percentile), via Fourth and Short, covering up some of its 0.08 EPA per passing attempt allowed (45th percentile).
As mentioned, this is a beat-up OSU offensive line, and Pro Football Focus ranks the unit 45th out of 138 FBS teams in pass block grade (71.1).
The trenches often decide big-time matchups, and the Hoosiers truly have a route to win on both sides of the ball. On offense, they allow an 11.0% havoc rate to defenses (87th percentile). Ohio State’s pass rush remains a question with a 9.5% havoc rate in the front seven (51st percentile).
If QB Josh Hoover has time, he’s averaging 10.6 yards per passing attempt with 17 passing TDs and 0 INTs. He also has the luxury of throwing to perhaps the best WR tandem in America: Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh.
Further, OSU allows a 41.4% rush success rate (68th percentile), and the Hoosiers tally 6.0 yards per carry (98th percentile) with a 57.33% rush play rate (77th percentile).
There’s an angle for Indiana to control the run game, while displaying a more successful pass rush against an elite passing attack. This, paired with Cignetti’s success at home, suggests an upset is brewing in Bloomington.
Lock in your Ohio State vs. Indiana prediction on PrizePicks before kickoff!
Ohio State vs. Indiana Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 10/17/26
Today’s Ohio State vs. Indiana picks are headlined by WR Jeremiah Smith and QB Josh Hoover on PrizePicks.
Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith vs. Indiana: 132.5 Receiving Yards
- Jeremiah Smith is probably going to get his no matter what, and we saw that with his 8 catches for 144 receiving yards in last season’s matchup with Indiana.
- The Heisman contender is up to 8.0 catches and 152.7 receiving yards per contest this season.
- Indiana also gives up a 1.65 pass explosiveness rating (25th percentile), and Smith racks up 19.1 yards per catch with a 15.1 average depth of target (aDOT).
- The Buckeyes have done a terrific job moving Smith in pre-snap for favorable matchups. Further, Indiana may focus on limiting the run game and forcing field goals instead of throwing all attention at Smith.
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Indiana QB Josh Hoover vs. Ohio State: 214.5 Pass Yards
- When throwing in a clean pocket, Hoover averages 11.4 yards per passing attempt and has a 5.9% big-time throw rate with 0 turnover-worthy plays. For context, his 5.9% big-time throw rate is second among qualifying QBs in the Big Ten.
- As mentioned, OSU has pass rush concerns in the front seven, and Indiana is ninth nationally in PFF’s pass block grade (83.8).
- Hoover’s passed this projection in three of his last four games, and he’s recorded 227.3 passing yards per contest.
- Ohio State CB Devin Sanchez has been vulnerable at times, allowing 11.9 yards per reception. Thanks to the two-headed monster of WRs Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh, someone will likely provide a favorable target.
Pick Josh Hoover + Indiana to win on PrizePicks now!
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Make Ohio State vs. Indiana Picks on PrizePicks
Ohio State seeks revenge following last year’s Big Ten title loss vs. Indiana. However, the Hoosiers have yet to lose a home game under head coach Curt Cignetti and should have a major home advantage in the biggest game in Memorial Stadium’s history.
Backed by potential advantages in the run game and pass rush, Indiana may keep this one close, potentially pulling off an upset to make it 23 consecutive wins on Saturday.
Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Ohio State vs. Indiana picks on PrizePicks now. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders — now available in 36 states!
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