The NCAA Tournament first round gets underway on Thursday with four East regional games to be played in the early afternoon. No. 14 North Dakota State and No. 3 Michigan State meet in the second window of games in Buffalo, NY, at 4:05 p.m. ET on TNT.
The winner of this clash advances to the second round of the NCAA Tournament vs. the winner of Thursday’s No. 11 South Florida-No. 6 Louisville game. According to PrizePicks Team Picks, the Spartans are notable 16.5-point favorites today.
Below, we’ll break down our North Dakota State vs. Michigan State prediction on the spread for Thursday afternoon’s game. Make your NCAA Tournament picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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North Dakota State vs. Michigan State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The Bison are known for their football team, a 10-time FCS champion, but it’s the basketball team that takes center stage on Thursday. North Dakota State won 27 games this season, finishing first in the Summit Conference at 14-2. They swept the Summit Conference Tournament, defeating rival North Dakota in the finals to earn their fifth berth in the NCAA Tournament.
The Bison have two NCAA Tournament wins, defeating No. 5 Oklahoma in the first round in 2014 and winning a play-in game in 2019 vs. NC Central. This is their first trip since that 2019 win, which ended in the first round to No. 1 seed Duke
Michigan State is on the opposite side of the experience ledger, advancing to its 39th NCAA Tournament, tied for 10th-most all-time. The No. 3-seeded Spartans are in the tournament for the 28th consecutive year, the longest active streak and second-longest of all time.
Sparty enters 25-7, having gone 15-5 in Big Ten play to earn a No. 3 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Michigan State had a triple-bye to the quarterfinals, where they were upset by UCLA.
North Dakota State vs. Michigan State Spread, Over/Under
Michigan State enters Thursday’s NCAA Tournament first-round game as a 16.5-point favorite, returning a 1.05x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.
North Dakota State is the big underdog, with a 10x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Michigan State -16.5 (2x payout)
- Over/Under: 145.5 (2x payout)
- Game Winner Payout: North Dakota State 10x | Michigan State 1.05x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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North Dakota State vs. Michigan State Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/19/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your NCAA Tournament North Dakota State vs. Michigan State college basketball prediction on the spread for Thursday, March 19, on PrizePicks.
- The Bison are 19-13 against the spread (ATS) this season, third-best in the Summit Conference.
- North Dakota State is 3-3 vs. the number as an underdog, but they covered in their only game as a double-digit underdog, losing by two in the season opener to Oregon State.
- Per KenPom, North Dakota State is rated 115th in the country, with an offensive rating of 111.7 (124th) and a defensive rating of 106.7 (124th).
- The Spartans lost in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament, their first game after a triple bye. In three of the eight times coach Tom Izzo has led Michigan State to the national semifinals, they did not win a game in the conference tourney.
- Michigan State has a .673 win percentage all-time in the NCAA Tournament, ranking 10th-best of all teams.
- Sparty is 15-15-2 ATS this season, covering in three of their last four regular-season games before losing outright to UCLA in the Big Ten Tournament.
- As a favorite of 10+ points this season, Michigan State is 3-11 ATS and failed to cover in the last three games as 10+ point favorites.
- According to KenPom, Michigan State is rated ninth in the country, with an offensive rating of 123.0 (24th) and a defensive rating of 94.7 (13th). They have wins over Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Purdue, and Illinois, all of which are in the NCAA Tournament.
Make North Dakota State vs. Michigan State Picks on PrizePicks
Can the Bison upset one of the winningest tournament teams in NCAA history? Or will the Spartans begin their march to an 11th national semifinal appearance? The North Dakota State-Michigan State NCAA Tournament game is at 4:05 p.m. on TNT.
You can make your North Dakota State vs. Michigan State picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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