NFL Week 5 Cheat Sheet & Best NFL Picks for PrizePicks

The NFL season is in full swing, and Week 5 brings another loaded Sunday slate with plenty of intriguing player matchups to attack.

We have a ton of players in favorable spots this week, and we will break down 18 individual player matchups for you to consider, including five quarterbacks, five running backs, five receivers, and three touchdown scorers.

The Week 5 cheat sheet is your ultimate resource for the top player picks for PrizePicks NFL, matchups to target, and game insights for the slate.

Ready to lock in your NFL Week 5 predictions? Just go to the PrizePicks NFL board, pick your players, and predict if they'll have More or Less than their projected stats to earn cash if you're right.

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NFL Week 5 Cheat Sheet, NFL Picks & Predictions – Sunday, October 11

Find the top NFL Week 5 predictions, picks, matchups, and players to target below in the PrizePicks cheat sheet, including analysis on QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, and TD scorers.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Sumer Sports, PFF, Pro Football Reference, and Next Gen Stats.

NFL Week 5 Cheat Sheet: Quarterbacks

Texans QB C.J. Stroud vs. Titans – 239.5 Pass Yards

Tennessee ranks dead last in quick pressure rate and has generated pressure on just 17.4% of dropbacks, the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL. Stroud should have plenty of clean pockets to attack a Titans defense that ranks 20th in passing success rate allowed.

Lions QB Jared Goff vs. Cardinals – 280.5 Pass Yards

Arizona is allowing +0.29 EPA per pass, 30th overall. This game has extreme shootout potential, as shown by its 54.5 over/under, by far the highest on Sunday’s slate via PrizePicks.

Raiders QB Kirk Cousins vs. Patriots – 232.5 Pass Yards

I'll keep this one short and sweet: New England is down four cornerbacks, including starters Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence vs. Eagles – 225.5 Pass Yards

Philadelphia has managed just 4 sacks in four games, giving Lawrence the chance to operate without consistent pressure. Philly ranks 17th in yards per target allowed, giving the Jags the opportunity to generate explosiveness without worrying about pressure.

Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett vs. Lions – 264.5 Pass Yards

Detroit has surrendered a league-high 1,308 passing yards along with a massive +0.23 EPA per pass (29th). He and Goff have a real chance to turn this game into an epic shootout. 

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NFL Week 5 Cheat Sheet: Running Backs

Vikings RB Aaron Jones vs. Saints – 72.5 Rush Yards

New Orleans has allowed 591 rushing yards while ranking 30th in defensive EPA per play. Jones has averaged 108.3 scrimmage yards per game with Jordan Mason out, giving him a strong combination of workload and matchup.

Steelers RB Jaylen Warren vs. Colts – 61.5 Rush Yards

Warren is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, and his 1.5 yards per carry over expectation ranks third in the league behind Bijan Robinson and Kenneth Walker. The Colts are 28th in defensive EPA/rush (0.02).

Bears RB D’Andre Swift vs. Packers – 83.5 Rush Yards

RB Kyle Monangai is out after rushing for 146 yards last week, opening the door for Swift to take on more of Chicago's rushing workload. Green Bay has surrendered 557 rushing yards and ranks 21st in defensive success rate (45.38%).

Colts RB Jonathan Taylor vs. Steelers – 85.5 Rush Yards

Taylor is a workload monster, averaging 21.5 carries per game, and now faces a Steelers defense that ranks 26th in defensive success rate (46.93%).

Browns RB Quinshon Judkins vs. Jets – 59.5 Rush Yards

Cleveland’s run game has started to click recently, producing 244 rushing yards over its last two games, while the Jets have allowed just under 125 rushing yards per game and the fourth-worst defensive success rate (48.02%).

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NFL Week 5 Cheat Sheet: Receivers

Texans WR Nico Collins vs. Titans – 77.5 Receiving Yards

Collins erupted for 118 receiving yards against Dallas last week. With Tank Dell still out and Tennessee allowing +0.17 EPA per pass, Collins can feast today as Houston's primary downfield weapon.

Giants WR Malik Nabers vs. Commanders – 56.5 Receiving Yards

Is this projection a misprint? Nabers just posted 112 receiving yards against Arizona and now gets another soft matchup against a Commanders secondary that ranks 20th in EPA/pass (0.0). 

Parker Washington vs. Eagles – Over 60.5 Receiving Yards

This is a stock market, and we are buying low on Washington here after just seven receiving yards last week. Washington was the unquestioned alpha of this WR group in the first three weeks with a 27.2% target share. Philadelphia ranks 22nd in PFF’s coverage grades.

Cardinals WR Michael Wilson vs. Lions – 76.5 Receiving Yards

Another workload monster. Wilson has received 40 targets through four games and is coming off a seven-catch, 95-yard performance against the Giants. Detroit has allowed a league-high 0.77 EPA per target to wide receivers.

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. 49ers – 93.5 Receiving Yards

Smith-Njigba is averaging more than 120 receiving yards per contest, well above this current projection. San Francisco's defense has operated as a pass-funnel this season, ranking 21st in EPA/pass (0.02).

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NFL Week 5 Cheat Sheet: TD Scorers

Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Cardinals – 0.5 Player TDs (Goblin)

Gibbs has handled 80% of Detroit's carries inside the 5-yard line and scored 5 rushing TDs through four games. Arizona has already surrendered 3 rushing TDs this season. Detroit has a projected team total of 30 (!), the highest on Sunday’s slate.

Rams RB Kyren Williams vs. Bills – 0.5 Player TDs (Goblin)

Williams has accounted for 42.9% of the Rams' red-zone opportunities, giving him a significant share of the team's scoring chances. Buffalo ranks 28th in red-zone EPA allowed, making this a favorable matchup for a back who can score on either a short run or a reception.

Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty vs. Patriots – 0.5 Player TDs (Goblin)

Jeanty has handled all 6 of Las Vegas’ carries inside the 5-yard line this season, giving him a clear path to a rushing touchdown despite not yet converting those opportunities. New England has already allowed 4 rushing TDs through four games and ranks 30th in rushing EPA allowed.

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Make NFL Week 5 Predictions on PrizePicks

Week 5 brings another massive Sunday slate with plenty of opportunities to attack player projections across every position.

This week's biggest themes are exploitable defenses in Arizona and Detroit, favorable rushing matchups for Aaron Jones and Jaylen Warren, and high-value scoring roles for Gibbs, Williams, and Jeanty.

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