There is a significant drop-off after the top names at tight end in fantasy football. If you didn’t draft Raiders TE Brocks Bowers, Cardinals TE Trey McBride, Bears TE Colston Loveland, or Colts TE Tyler Warren, streaming the position on a weekly basis might be the correct call.
With that in mind, let's discuss two of the more intriguing names who might not be on every single radar. Now a member of the New York Giants, Isaiah Likely is eyeing a productive 2026 campaign. Still with the Buffalo Bills, can Dalton Kincaid have a breakout year?
Below, we'll dive into an NFL Week 1 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em breakdown for your fantasy football picks this week, including PrizePicks projections for both Likely and Kincaid.
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Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em TEs, Week 1: Isaiah Likely or Dalton Kincaid?
Who makes more sense in this NFL Week 1 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em dilemma: Likely or Kincaid?
Why Start Isaiah Likely?
Isaiah Likely Week 1 PrizePicks Projections: 34.5 Rec Yards, 2.5 Recs (Goblin), 8.5 Fantasy Score
- No longer stuck behind TE Mark Andrews on the Ravens, Likely is primed to be the top TE for the Giants. His main competition for targets is Theo Johnson, who had drop rates of 9.3% and 8.1% during his first two seasons in the NFL.
- Despite his drop issues, Johnson still had 45 receptions for 528 yards and 5 TDs last year. He had a 14.7% target share and an average depth of target of 7.9 yards, both of which are encouraging for Likely’s role this year.
- The former Ravens TE has good hands, recording 1 total drop over the last two seasons. During that span, he was targeted 94 times.
- Johnson led the Giants with 14 red-zone targets last year, beating out WR Wan’Dale Robinson (13) and fellow TE Daniel Bellinger (6). Both of those players are no longer on the team.
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Why Start Dalton Kincaid?
Dalton Kincaid Week 1 PrizePicks Projections: 38.5 Rec Yards, 2.5 Recs (Goblin), 8.5 Fantasy Score
- Kincaid looked like a potential fantasy football standout after his rookie season in which he caught 73 of 91 targets for 673 yards and 2 TDs.
- Injuries limited the 26-year-old to 13 and 12 games in the last two seasons. His target share declined in both campaigns, reaching just 10.2% last year.
- Working in Kincaid’s favor is that he was targeted on 25.8% of his routes last year. His average depth of target of 9.5 yards ranked second among TEs, according to Pro Football Focus.
- The Bills could have a more productive offense after adding WR DJ Moore, who has averaged at least 12.4 yards per reception in all but one season of his career.
- According to Fantasy Points Data, Kincaid led all TEs with 150+ routes last year in both separation score and win rate.
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Week 1 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Verdict: Start Isaiah Likely
The Giants could lean heavily on Likely based on their issues at wideout. Malik Nabers is coming off a torn ACL, and behind him is an uninspiring group led by WRs Darnell Mooney, rookie Malachi Fields, and the aging Odell Beckham Jr.
Likely has the potential to finish second on the team in targets this season. Week 1 brings a matchup against a Cowboys team that allowed the third-highest catch rate to TEs last season (77.6%), per RotoWire.
Kincaid is facing a difficult matchup against the Texans, who allowed the second-fewest points per game last season (17.4). Via RBSDM, they ranked first in dropback EPA allowed and gave up the fourth-fewest yards per target to TEs (6.30).
Likely has a larger role with his team and a better matchup than Kincaid does for Week 1, making him the best Week 1 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em option.
Make NFL Picks on PrizePicks
There are plenty of solid names at the TE position, but not everyone was fortunate enough to have drafted a premier player in fantasy football. If you think Likely or Kincaid could help your lineup, be sure to also take those NFL predictions over to PrizePicks for Week 1 and beyond.
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