NFL Week 1 Cheat Sheet & Best NFL DFS Picks for PrizePicks

Finally, the wait is over. The long offseason is behind us, and NFL Week 1 is here. We have a ton of fascinating matchups to kick off the season and will break down over 15 individual player matchups for your NFL picks on PrizePicks.

The Week 1 cheat sheet is your ultimate resource for the top player picks for PrizePicks NFL, matchups to target, and game insights for the slate.

Ready to lock in your NFL Week 1 predictions? Just go to the PrizePicks NFL board, pick your players, and predict if they’ll have More or Less than their projected stats to earn cash if you're right.

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NFL Week 1 Cheat Sheet, NFL DFS Predictions – Sunday, September 13

Find the top NFL Week 1 predictions, picks, matchups, and players to target below in the PrizePicks cheat sheet, including analysis on QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, and TD scorers.

NFL Week 1 Cheat Sheet: Quarterbacks

Bengals QB Joe Burrow vs. Buccaneers – 268.5 Pass Yards

Tampa Bay’s defense ranked in the bottom eight last season in adjusted yards per attempt (7.7), yards per completion (11.4), and yards per game (238.2).

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson vs. Colts – 221.5 Pass Yards

The Colts gave up the second most passing yards per game in 2025 (247.9). Jackson owns an absurd 80.4% completion rate and 115.4 passer rating against Indianapolis in his career.

Titans QB Cam Ward vs. Jets – 201.5 Pass Yards

Ward had a 33.9% success rate against the blitz last season, the worst in the NFL. Jets HC Aaron Glenn blitzed at a 34.6% clip last season.

Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield vs. Bengals – 232.5 Pass Yards

The Bengals’ defense had the sixth-worst EPA/pass in 2025 (0.10), per RBSDM. They also allowed 12.0 yards per completion (31st).

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott vs. Giants – 261.5 Pass Yards

Dak owns a 101.5 career passer rating against the Giants, with 31 TDs vs. 9 INTs in a 17-game sample size.

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NFL Week 1 Cheat Sheet: Running Backs

Texans RB David Montgomery vs. Bills – 54.5 Rush Yards

The Bills defense ranked 31st in EPA/rush (0.06) and allowed the fifth-most rushing yards in 2025 (2,315).

Giants RB Cam Skatteboo vs. Cowboys – 50.5 Rush Yards

New HC John Harbaugh ran one of the most run-heavy schemes of all time from 2019 to 2025, and the Cowboys’ defense was tied for the third-worst EPA/run in 2025 (0.05).

Eagles RB Saquon Barkley vs. Commanders – 75.5 Rush Yards

Commanders' defense was also tied for the third-worst EPA/run last season (0.05). They faced the fifth-most rushing attempts (504) and allowed the third-most rushing yards (2,411).

Cowboys RB Javonte Williams vs. Giants – 72.5 Rush Yards

Giants were by far and away the worst run defense in football in EPA/run (0.11) last season. They allowed the second-most rushing yards (2,470) and also lost run-stuffing DT Dexter Lawrence in the offseason.

Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Saints – 83.5 Rush Yards

This is a volume-based, buy-low spot for bell cow Gibbs as a 7-point home favorite on PrizePicks. Saints allowed the third-most rush attempts per game in 2025.‍

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NFL Week 1 Cheat Sheet: Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

Jets WR Garrett Wilson vs. Titans – 5.5 Receptions

The Titans allowed the second-highest completion percentage (68.9%) and the highest adjusted yards per completion (8.9) last year.  

Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka vs. Bengals – 55.5 Receiving Yards

The Bengals allowed the second-highest yards per completion (12.0) and seventh-most receiving yards (3,975), giving Egbuka a good matchup.

Ravens WR Zay Flowers vs. Colts – 65.5 Receiving Yards

The Colts gave up 4,215 yards through the air last season, the second-most in the league.

Eagles WR Devonta Smith vs. Commanders – 67.5 Receiving Yards

Working as the new undisputed WR1 in the Eagles offense, he has a lovely matchup against a Commanders’ defense that gave up the highest yards per completion (12.5) in 2025.

Raiders TE Michael Mayer vs. Dolphins – 4.5 Receptions

Stepping in for the injured Brock Bowers, Mayer will get to work with QB Kirk Cousins who loves to throw to his TE (23.8% career target rate to the position) and against a Dolphins defense that gave up the highest completion rate in football last year (72%).

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NFL Week 1 Cheat Sheet: TD Scorers

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Saints – 0.5 Player TDs

St. Brown had the second-most targets (21) within 10 yards of the end zone in 2025 and won’t have to compete with RB David Montgomery for end zone touches anymore.

Ravens RB Derrick Henry vs. Colts – 0.5 Player TDs (Goblin)

King Henry led all of football in carries within 10 yards (40) and within 5 yards (24) of the end zone a season ago.

Texans RB David Montgomery vs. Bills – 0.5 Player TDs

Despite splitting snaps with RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Montgomery still ranked eighth in carries within 5 yards of the end zone (14) in 2025. The Bills were tied for the most rushing TDs allowed last season (24).

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Make NFL Week 1 Predictions on PrizePicks

Week 1 brings us our first of many opportunities to earn real money on NFL predictions. Use this NFL Cheat Sheet and predictions to sharpen your takes and build out your winning picks for the Week 1 slate.

You can make your NFL picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you're right. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

Keep it dialed in on the Playbook for more NFL picks, predictions, and news all season long.