Two games populate the Mountain West Tournament slate on Friday, with the nightcap of the semifinals presenting a clash between the New Mexico Lobos and San Diego State Aztecs.
This matchup features the second and third seeds in the conference tourney going head-to-head on the hardwood at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, NV. Prior to tip-off at 11:59 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network, San Diego State is favored by a narrow 1.5-point margin.
Below, we’ll break down our New Mexico vs. San Diego State prediction on spread for Friday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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New Mexico vs. San Diego State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
In year No. 1 with head coach Eric Olen at the helm, New Mexico has ripped off 23 wins thus far, including 13 in conference play.
An ugly 1-3 stretch served as the close to their regular season, but the Lobos bounced back by taking down San Jose State in a 93-77 blowout on Thursday.
San Diego State’s record sits at 21-10 for the second year in a row, and so does their 14-6 Mountain West mark. Both will soon change for head coach Brian Dutcher’s crew.
The Aztecs ended their regular season going 2-4 in their last six, but Thursday saw them beat Colorado State 71-62 and advance to the Mountain West Tournament semis.
Dating back to 1949, New Mexico and San Diego State have met 100 times. The Lobos own a 53-47 head-to-head advantage. These two programs split their season series 1-1, with the January 17 and February 28 outings being decided by a combined nine points.
New Mexico vs. San Diego State Spread, Over/Under
New Mexico enters Friday’s game as 1.5-point underdogs, returning a 2.12x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
San Diego State is a favorite with a 1.69x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: San Diego State Aztecs -1.5
- Over/Under: 149.5
- Game Winner Payout: Lobos 2.12x | Aztecs 1.69x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
New Mexico vs. San Diego State Prediction on Spread – 3/13/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your New Mexico vs. San Diego State prediction on spread for Friday, March 13 on PrizePicks.
- To this point, New Mexico is 6-3 against the spread as an underdog. San Diego State, meanwhile, is 11-9 ATS as a favorite.
- KenPom paints this game as a remarkably close matchup, as San Diego State is 46th with a +16.84 net rating and New Mexico is 49th at +15.94.
- While San Diego State’s No. 17 ranking for adjusted defensive efficiency is tremendous, the program is 104th on offense. UNM is 56th on defense and 67th on offense, serving as a balanced club.
- The 3-point shooting battle favors the Lobos, who rank 51st in efficiency on offense (36.2%) and 23rd on defense (30.4%) vs. San Diego State’s 123rd (35.0%) and 169th (33.7%), respectively.
- According to CBB Shot Charts, San Diego State converts on 65% of its shots at the rim, but New Mexico allows just a 60% mark.
- Via Bart Torvik, the Lobos have the only two players in this matchup with at least a 3.0 points over replacement per adjusted game: F Tomislav Buljan (3.1) and G Jake Hall (4.1).
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