Plenty has changed in the college basketball landscape since last week's NCAA Tournament bubble watch update. It’s the last call for several teams to leave an impression in the regular season, as the West Coast Conference (WCC) finishes its play on Saturday.
Meanwhile, at most, three regular-season games remain for most high-major schools.
Let’s check the pulse of college basketball teams pushing for the final tournament spots in our NCAA bubble watch update as we head into Saturday's massive slate of games.
Furthermore, we’ll provide NCAA Tournament Round of 64 qualifier payouts for each program vying for a spot, per PrizePicks Team Picks.
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NCAA Bubble Watch Update for 2026 NCAA Tournament
Three high-major teams sit among our last four teams in; we'll evaluate their chances to make the NCAA Tournament below.
Here’s the latest Yes/No payouts for each team to earn a Round of 64 bid PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can predict if teams will make the NCAA Tournament and get paid if you're right.
2026 NCAA Tournament: Last Four In
Round of 64 Qualifier Payouts
- Indiana Hoosiers: Yes 2.04x | No 1.72x
- TCU Horned Frogs: Yes 1.56x | No 2.17x
- Missouri Tigers: Yes 1.35x | No 3.03x
- Santa Clara Broncos: Yes 1.47x | No 2.27x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Indiana Hoosiers
Next game: vs. #13 Michigan State – Saturday, 3:45 p.m. ET
The Big Ten is expected to be one of the most represented conferences in the Big Dance, featuring nine projected bids from Joe Lunardi's Bracketology. However, our bubble teams are chock-full of Big Ten squads.
Following three consecutive losses, the Indiana Hoosiers (17-11) now find themselves on the bubble. They rank 38th in the NCAA NET Rankings and are 2-10 in quadrant one games — defined by top-30 teams at home, top-50 teams in a neutral site, or top-75 teams on the road.
Against Illinois and Purdue on February 15 and 20, the Hoosiers lost by an average margin of -24.5. Will Indiana finally grab an elusive quad one win on Sunday against No. 13 Michigan State?
TCU Horned Frogs
Next game: @ Kansas State – Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Since our previous bubble watch, the TCU Horned Frogs (18-10) are 2-1 in their last three games. However, they fell one spot in NET Rankings (46th).
The Frogs failed to win February 17’s quad one opportunity against UCF, followed by quad two wins over West Virginia (66th NET) and Arizona State (75th).
March 3 brings another quad one opponent in No. 16 Texas Tech. TCU finishes the regular season on March 7 against Cincinnati, which is 4-1 in its last five games and is approaching bubble territory.
Missouri Tigers
Next game: @ Mississippi State – Saturday, 1 p.m. ET
The Missouri Tigers (19-9) have improved nearly 10 spots in NET Rankings since our last bubble update, going from 66th to 58th. Since February 18, they faced three consecutive top-25 opponents and finished with a 2-1 record in the split.
With a 5-5 quad one record, Missouri's chances of earning an NCAA Tournament bid have vastly improved. The Tigers have two upcoming quad one bouts with Oklahoma (67th NET) and Arkansas (18th NET).
Santa Clara Broncos
Next game: vs. Oregon State – Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
Despite posting a 1-2 record in their last three games, the Santa Clara Broncos (22-7) are 41st in NET Rankings — compared to 42nd in our previous bubble check-up.
Santa Clara passes the eye test by ranking 32nd in Bart Torvik’s efficiency rankings and 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency. However, the Broncos are only 1-5 in quad one contests.
Following February 14’s loss against Gonzaga, they fumbled another opportunity with an 86-67 loss against Saint Mary’s on February 25. Santa Clara’s NCAA Tournament hopes could hinge on its WCC Tournament performance.
2026 NCAA Tournament: First Four Out
What college basketball programs are among the first four teams out? The list includes a pair of familiar faces from February 17’s bubble watch update.
Here’s the latest Yes/No payouts for each team to earn a Round of 64 bid PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can predict if teams will make the NCAA Tournament and get paid if you're right.
Round of 64 Qualifier Payouts
- Ohio State Buckeyes: Yes 2.43x | No 1.51x
- USC Trojans: Yes 6.25x | No 1.08x
- San Diego State Aztecs: Yes 2.17x | No 1.47x
- VCU Rams: Yes 4.54x | No 1.16x
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Ohio State Buckeyes
Next game: vs. #8 Purdue – Sunday, 1:30 p.m. ET
Not much has changed for the Ohio State Buckeyes (17-11), as they are 39th in the NET Rankings.
They earned their first quad one win of the season against Wisconsin on February 17, but the Buckeyes followed that with back-to-back quad one losses against Michigan State and Iowa.
Ohio State is now 1-10 in quad one clashes.
Will the Buckeyes add their second quad one victory against No. 8 Purdue on Sunday? OSU may need to win its final three regular-season games for a comfortable standing before the Big Ten Tournament.
USC Trojans
Next game: vs. #12 Nebraska – Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
Since our previous bubble check, the USC Trojans (17-10) have fallen from a secure spot in the 64-team field to the outside looking in. They’ve lost four consecutive games, and three were quad one games.
USC is now 2-7 against quad one opponents. The Trojans also rank 62nd in NET Rankings, putting their postseason aspirations in danger.
They face No. 12 Nebraska (11th NET) on Saturday, followed by Washington (55th NET) on the road and UCLA (37th NET) at home.
San Diego State Aztecs
Next game: @ New Mexico – Saturday, 2 p.m. ET
The San Diego State Aztecs (18-8) were 41st in NET rankings on February 17, appearing among our last four teams in.
However, they then lost back-to-back games to Grand Canyon (73rd NET) and Colorado State (87th NET).
Panic was certainly present, but San Diego State quickly silenced concerns with February 25’s 89-72 win over Utah State (25th NET). The Aztecs have upcoming back-to-back quad-one road games against New Mexico (45th NET) and Boise State (60th NET).
If the Aztecs manage to rip off three consecutive quad one wins, they should recover from last week’s blunders.
VCU Rams
Next game: vs. Fordham – Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
While the VCU Rams (21-7) rank 47th in NET Rankings and 51st in Bart Torvik’s efficiency rankings, it's hard to overlook their 0-5 quad one record.
The Rams lost their final quad one opportunity of the season on February 20 against No. 23 Saint Louis.
VCU finishes the regular season against Fordham (178th NET), George Mason (102nd NET), and Dayton (76th NET).
It must win out for any hope of an at-large bid, but those aspirations could be over from quad one failures. The Rams may need to win the Atlantic 10 Tournament to make the field.
Make College Basketball Futures Picks on PrizePicks
Big Ten bubble teams are taking the cake this week. Indiana, Ohio State, and USC have crucial upcoming quad-one games against top-25 opponents.
A win would surely boost any of the three’s NCAA Tournament hopes, providing potential value to become a Round of 64 qualifier.
You can make your college basketball futures picks on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just go to the PrizePicks app, open Team Picks, make your predictions for the NCAA Tournament, and earn cash if you're right.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news.
