#16 Mississippi State vs. #22 LSU Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Saturday, October 17

Saturday’s college football slate begins with a highly anticipated SEC matchup between two top-25 programs. The #22 LSU Tigers will host the #16 Mississippi State Bulldogs at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 17, on ESPN.

The Tigers are 16.5-point favorites and return a 1.13x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks.

Mississippi State is coming off its first loss of the season, a 56-23 defeat to #6 Alabama on October 3. Meanwhile, LSU suffered a heartbreaking 35-34 overtime defeat on the road to #15 Kentucky last week.

Below, we’ll break down our Mississippi State vs. LSU prediction and picks for Saturday’s game, including the spread, over/under, and player projections for PrizePicks.

Make your Mississippi State vs. LSU picks on PrizePicks now!

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#16 Mississippi State vs. #22 LSU Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, October 17

LSU enters Saturday’s game as a 16.5-point home favorite against Mississippi State, returning a 1.13x payout if it wins outright, via PrizePicks — or $113 on a $100 entry if you're right.

Here are the full payouts for the Mississippi State vs. LSU game on PrizePicks. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Mississippi State vs. LSU prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.

Mississippi State was the talk of college football after the Bulldogs raced to a 4-0 start. In fact, the program had topped #13 Missouri on September 26 in a 31-24 decision before falling to Alabama.

The Bulldogs are led by star QB Kamario Taylor, who's completing 66.2% of his passes for 1,450 yards and 17 TDs compared to just 4 INTs. However, Taylor is currently listed as questionable for Saturday’s matchup as he continues to deal with a leg injury.

In addition to Taylor, RB Fluff Bothwell's status is also up in the air. Bothwell suffered a left foot injury against Alabama and left the game after carrying the ball once. Before that, he'd racked up 403 yards and 3 TDs on 5.4 yards per carry this season.

Defensively, the Bulldogs will also be without LB Jalen Smith, who leads the team in total tackles (28). 

Mississippi State’s offense has been incredibly dangerous, averaging 487.0 YPG (11th nationally). The Bulldogs have also racked up 39.0 PPG, ranking fifth in the conference.

Meanwhile, LSU's had an up-and-down start to the season under head coach Lane Kiffin. Entering Saturday, the Tigers possess a 4-2 record with losses to #9 Ole Miss and #15 Kentucky.

Last Saturday, the Tigers scored first in overtime, but the Wildcats answered with a TD and then converted a 2-point try on a run by QB Kenny Minchey.

LSU has shown flashes of elite offense with QB Sam Leavitt at the helm. However, the biggest issue has been the turnover battle, with Leavitt tossing 8 INTs. In fact, Leavitt has been intercepted at least once in all six of LSU’s contests.

The Tigers have been successful on the ground at times, with RB Dilin Jones rushing for 482 yards and 5 TDs on 4.4 YPC. Jones has tallied the 11th-most carries (93) in the nation and has topped the 100-yard mark in two contests.

Defensively, LSU has thrived as one of the stingiest units around. The Tigers have allowed just 250.7 total YPG (first in the SEC) while allowing an SEC-best 74.5 rushing YPG (first) and a 34.1% passing success rate (fourth nationally).

The under has hit in seven of the last 10 meetings between Mississippi State and LSU, but this will be the first head-to-head tilt since 2023. 

Mississippi State vs. LSU Prediction on Spread – 10/17/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Mississippi State vs. LSU prediction on the spread for Saturday, October 17, in this battle of SEC foes. 

• If Taylor can’t play, true freshman QB Parker Puckett would likely start under center. He's only appeared in two games this season.
• Even if Taylor and Bothwell play, the Tigers have surrendered -0.26 EPA/pass (fourth) while holding opponents to -0.03 EPA/rush (44th).
• LSU ranks second in the SEC with 23 sacks and a 20.5% havoc rate (10th nationally), per Game on Paper.
• The Tigers may be able to exploit a Bulldogs secondary that's allowed the second-most passing yards per game in the SEC (260.0). Additionally, Mississippi State cedes 0.19 EPA/pass (98th).
• LSU's racked up the fourth-most yards per game (524.8) and is averaging 42.0 PPG (ninth). 
• The Tigers' offense thrives on pressure-packed late downs, tallying a 53.7% success rate (17th in the country).

Lock in your Mississippi State vs. LSU prediction on PrizePicks before kickoff.

Mississippi State vs. LSU Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/17/26

Here are the top Mississippi State vs. LSU picks to target on Saturday, October 17. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include Sam Leavitt and Anthony Evans III.

LSU QB Sam Leavitt vs. Mississippi State: 247.5 Pass Yards

• Leavitt has completed 67.6% of his passes for 1,496 yards and 10 TDs in six games.
• The veteran QB has netted 8.13 yards per dropback, ranking 22nd in the country.
• Leavitt's thrown for at least 248 yards in two of his last three games, including passing for 275 and 2 TDs against Kentucky last week.
• Mississippi State has surrendered a 46.6% passing success rate, which sits just 99th nationally.

Add Sam Leavitt + LSU to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Mississippi State WR Anthony Evans III vs. LSU: 72.5 Rec Yards

• Evans has hauled in 40 passes for 574 yards (10th) and 5 TDs across five games in 2026.
• The senior wideout owns the fifth-most total EPA (42.48) among collegiate WRs.
• Evans averages 114.8 receiving yards per contest and has topped 100 yards in all but one game.
• Despite LSU excelling at defending the pass, the Bulldogs' star WR has registered an 80% catch rate, converting on 40 of those 50 targets.

Pick Anthony Evans III + Mississippi State to cover the spread on PrizePicks!

Make Mississippi State vs. LSU Picks on PrizePicks

Mississippi State is dealing with several key injuries ahead of Saturday’s matchup against LSU. Can the Tigers take advantage and bounce back after falling to Kentucky last week?

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Mississippi State vs. LSU picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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