Friday night delivers must‑watch Big Ten basketball, as two in‑state powers square off on the hardwood. The No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (19‑1) and No. 7 Michigan State Spartans (19‑2) meet in one of the sport’s marquee conference showdowns.
This prime‑time tip (8:00 p.m. ET) showcases two programs with championship aspirations and proven tournament pedigree. With Big Ten title stakes and seeding on the line, expect high‑level intensity from the opening tip to the final buzzer.
Below, we’ll break down our Michigan vs. Michigan State prediction and picks for Friday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Michigan vs. Michigan State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
In his second season in Ann Arbor, head coach Dusty May has built one of Michigan’s most complete rosters in recent memory. After a rebuilding 2024‑25 campaign, the Wolverines have already eclipsed last season’s win total and sit among the Big Ten’s elite.
Meanwhile, Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans remain in relentless pursuit of another Big Ten title. Despite roster turnover and injuries, the Spartans have preserved their pedigree and profile as a dangerous March threat. With both teams near the top of the league table, this matchup carries significant implications for Big Ten seeding and NCAA tournament positioning.
Friday marks the latest chapter in one of the Big Ten’s defining rivalries. Michigan holds a narrow all‑time edge in the series (97-92), but Michigan State has taken each of the last four matchups in convincing fashion.
Michigan vs. Michigan State Over/Under, Spread
Michigan enters Friday’s game as 1.5-point road favorites, returning a 1.78x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Michigan State is a home underdog with a 1.92x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines -1.5
- Over/Under: 148.5
- Game Winner Payout: Michigan 1.78x | Michigan State 1.92x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Michigan vs. Michigan State Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to help you make your Michigan vs. Michigan State prediction on Friday, January 30.
- Michigan’s fourth‑ranked scoring offense nationally (90.9 PPG) is explosive. The Wolverines’ defense sits 48th in points allowed (68.8 PPG), but their rim protection helps make up for it.
- The Wolverines lead the nation in effective field goal percentage on both ends while ranking second nationally in 2-point defense (41.8%) and dominating the paint.
- Michigan State's 88th-ranked offense (79.5 PPG) is solid but unspectacular. However, their elite fifth-ranked defense (63.5 PPG allowed) is the difference-maker.
- The Spartans boast the nation's top defense (per KenPom) with a 91.9 adjusted defensive efficiency rating, holding opponents to just 30.1% from 3-point range.
- Michigan State holds a 10-9-2 against-the-spread record, while Michigan sits at 9-11-0 ATS. The Spartans have covered in their last four meetings.
- Entering Friday's clash, Michigan ranks No. 2 in KenPom while Michigan State sits at No. 6.
Michigan vs. Michigan State Picks for PrizePicks Today: Friday, January 30
Here are the top two Michigan vs. Michigan State picks to target for Friday, January 30, on PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by F Morez Johnson Jr. and G Jeremy Fears Jr.
Michigan F Morez Johnson Jr. vs. Michigan State Projection: 19.5 Pts + Rebs
- Johnson has recorded 29 combined points and rebounds in his most recent outing vs. Nebraska (17 points, 12 rebounds), marking his fourth double-double of the season.
- The sophomore forward ranks fourth nationally in EvanMiya's individual defensive rankings and owns an elite 18.2% total rebounding rate.
- Among Big Ten players logging at least 23 minutes per game, Johnson leads the league in field goal percentage at 69.3%, and he went 5‑for‑6 against Nebraska’s top‑10 defense.
- Johnson has shot 66.7% or better from the field in four of his last five games, averaging 13 points and 9 rebounds over that stretch.
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Michigan State G Jeremy Fears Jr. vs. Michigan Projection: 15 Pts
- Fears averages 18.6 points over his last nine contests while shooting 51% from the field and converting 59 of 64 free throws (92.2%). That span includes a career‑high 29‑point night against Rutgers, when he went 16‑for‑17 at the line.
- The redshirt sophomore has scored in double figures in nine straight games and in 15 of his last 21 overall.
- Michigan ranks 48th in points allowed at 68.8 per game, a solid but not dominant mark that could leave attacking guards like Fears room to operate.
- Fears shoots 89.9% at the line and averages 5.7 free throw attempts, giving him multiple paths to clear his projection.
Make #3 Michigan vs. #7 Michigan State Picks on PrizePicks
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