The Atlanta Falcons’ winning streak was snapped at two in Week 5, and injury was added to that insult late in the contest when QB Michael Penix Jr. took a hard hit from Baltimore Ravens pass rusher Tavius Robinson.
The tackle resulted in Penix leaving the contest for a play and returning, only to sit on the bench for the overtime period and leave his Week 6 status up in the air. Can the first-string signal-caller get back in the lineup quickly?
Below, we’ll dive into the latest Michael Penix Jr. injury update and its potential impact on Falcons fantasy football picks and projections for PrizePicks.
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Michael Penix Jr. Injury Update: Will Penix Play in Week 6?
It’s confirmed that Penix avoided major injury, with Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports reporting that “there is optimism” he could even play this weekend. ESPN’s Adam Schefter acknowledged the same, although the team will keep an eye on his MRI results and practice participation throughout the week before deciding.
Penix said he likely would’ve attempted an overtime return if Atlanta got the ball first, but the pain of his injury worsened the longer he waited on the sideline. QB Tua Tagovailoa finished the outing, going 2-for-3 passing with a costly INT that sealed a 30-23 Ravens win in the extra frame.
After missing the start of the season as he finished recovering from a torn ACL, Penix burst onto the scene with a productive three-game stretch. In Weeks 3-5, he completed 67.5% of his passes for 719 yards, 3 TDs, and just a single INT.
In the process, he owned a 51.9% passing success rate and produced a career-best 104.8 passer rating.
Since Week 3, per RBSDM, Penix is first among all QBs with 80+ plays in adjusted EPA/play (0.351) while sitting fifth in success rate (52.9%). According to Pro Football Focus, he also owns a 9.0% big-time throw clip and a 1.7% turnover-worthy play rate.
On PrizePicks, Penix carries Week 6 projections of 232.5 Pass Yards, 1.5 Pass TDs, and 0.5 Anytime TDs (Demon) if he’s able to play. Keep an eye on the Falcons’ injury report this week.
Falcons Fantasy Football Outlook & Weapons on Offense
Under head coach Kevin Stefanski, Atlanta’s preference has been to keep the ball out of the QB’s hands. According to nfelo, the Falcons own football’s third-lowest pass rate over expected (-9.1%), which makes some sense given the greatness of RB Bijan Robinson.
Via SumerSports, Robinson’s been worth 0.07 EPA/rush, good for fourth among all RBs with at least 50 carries in 2026. Not only that, but his 48.04% success rate (fifth) and 19.69% target share (first) also stack up quite favorably to the rest of the halfbacks in the league.
Elsewhere in the passing game, WR Drake London has fared quite well when Penix is on the field. Via Pro Football Focus, the two have combined for a 118.8 passer rating and a sparkling 1.12 EPA/play on their targets, as well as an absurd 11.2 yards-after-catch average. TE Kyle Pitts (10 catches for 109 yards and a TD) continues to fly under the radar relative to the hype surrounding him.
In the event that Penix can’t play on Sunday against the Chicago Bears (1 p.m. ET), it’d be the Tagovailoa show under center. Penix has struggled under pressure, producing -0.82 EPA/dropback, and his fellow QB is no different. Six of his 15 INTs last year with the Miami Dolphins came when he was pressured, and he owned a 65.7 passer rating in those situations.
Facing a Chicago defense that’s 12th in dropback EPA/play (0.024) and sixth in success rate (41.8%) won’t be an easy task for either QB this weekend.
The Falcons are 3.5-point home underdogs against the Bears, according to PrizePicks, returning a 1.56x payout with a victory.
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As the Falcons get into the thick of their 2026 schedule, having Michael Penix Jr. at QB might prove beneficial given the surprising production he’s brought in a limited sample size. Having avoided a serious injury in Week 5, all eyes now shift to this week of practice and Sunday’s showdown vs. Chicago.
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