Miami (OH) vs. SMU Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament Play-In

The 2026 NCAA Tournament continues Wednesday night with the second set of play-in games in Dayton.

The final of four play-in games features a battle of No. 11 seeds in the Midwest Region as regular-season MAC champion Miami (OH) vs. SMU, an at-large team from the ACC.

The Miami (OH) vs. SMU play-in game tips off at 9:15 p.m. ET at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, airing on TruTV. The winner advances to the 64-team bracket to face No. 6 seed Tennessee on Friday.

Below, we’ll break down our Miami (OH) vs. SMU prediction and picks for Wednesday night’s CBB game.

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Miami (OH) vs. SMU Prediction, Spread, Over/Under

The Miami (OH) RedHawks went a perfect 31-0 in the regular season, the first team since 2020-21 Gonzaga to complete that feat.

However, the RedHawks lost in the quarterfinals of the MAC Tournament to UMass to end the perfect season. 

However, winning the first 31 games of the year earned the RedHawks an at-large bid and their first berth in the NCAA Tournament since 2007.

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SMU was sitting pretty at 19-9 before senior guard B.J. Edwards got injured. The Mustangs dropped four of their final five games without Edwards to land in the play-in game in Dayton.

Edwards is expected back for Wednesday night’s game vs. Miami. SMU beat Syracuse in the ACC Tournament first round before losing to Louisville in the second round.

Miami (OH) has six all-time wins in the tournament, last winning a game in 1999 when they advanced to the Sweet 16 after upsets of No. 7 seed Washington and No. 2 seed Utah. 

SMU returns to the 68-team tourney for the first time since 2017. The Mustangs, who made the national semifinals in 1954, have 10 all-time tournament wins, last advancing in 1988 to the second round. 

Miami (OH) vs. SMU Spread, Over/Under

SMU enters Wednesday’s NCAA Tournament game as 6.5-point favorites in the play-in game, returning a 1.33x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.

Miami (OH) is the underdog with a 3.22x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.

• Spread: SMU -6.5
• Over/Under: 161.5
• Game Winner Payout: Miami (OH) 3.22x |  SMU 1.33x

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Miami (OH) vs. SMU Prediction on Spread – 3/18/26

https://x.com/awfulannouncing/status/2033316473700233275?s=20

Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Miami (OH) vs. SMU college basketball prediction on the spread for the NCAA Tournament play-in game on Wednesday, March 18 on PrizePicks.

• Miami (OH) was 19-10 against the spread this season. The cover percentage (65.5%) was second best among Mid-American Conference schools and 16th best in the country. 
• However, the RedHawks have failed to cover in each of their last four games, and they were favored by 5+ in all four games. 
• Miami (OH) is a perfect 4-0 against the spread as an underdog this season — the most wins and covers of any team without a loss as an underdog in the nation. 
• The MAC regular season champs are an underdog for the first time since January 20th vs. Kent State.  
• The RedHawks are led by their offense, which averages 90.7 points per game, second-best of all Division I teams.
• SMU is 14-18-1 (43.8%) against the spread this season, the second-worst cover percentage in the ACC, only ahead of Georgia Tech. 
• The Mustangs covered in both ACC Tournament games after failing to cover in their last four regular-season games. 
• The numbers aren't any better as a favorite, as SMU has failed to cover in 12 of 20 games as the listed favorite, also second-worst in the ACC.
• As a favorite of 6+ points, SMU is 5-9 against the spread.  
• Per KenPom, the SMU Mustangs are rated 42nd in the country with an offensive rating of 122.9 (26th) and a defensive rating of 104.8 (91st). 

Make Your Miami (OH) vs. SMU Prediction on PrizePicks

Can Miami (OH) prove all the critics wrong and show the 31-1 record was real, even vs. a weak strength of schedule?

Or will SMU get back B.J. Edwards and return to February form? The Miami (OH) vs. SMU NCAA Tournament game is at 9:15 p.m. ET on TruTV.

You can make your Miami (OH) vs. SMU picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money.

Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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